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NFL Betting: Week 1
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:11 pm
Anything jumping out? Any research to back up your opinions?
Looking at
Pitt +2.5, feel like that line should be closer to pickem. No Bosa and Purdy rust. Pitt was 7-2 to end season. Pitt at home also
Phi -4, think it should be closer to -7. No offense NE, Phi should tear them apart. Can't think of a scenario where the final score is around 21-24 or 20-24...Phi D shouldn't give up 3 TDs to Jones/Stevenson 27-13 more likely to me.
N.O. -3, Think the line should be closer to -5. Defense is going to give that Oline and QB trouble. Don't think the Defense in Tenn has gotten any better from last season. Even without Kamara think it should be more than a FG victory at home.
Looking at
Pitt +2.5, feel like that line should be closer to pickem. No Bosa and Purdy rust. Pitt was 7-2 to end season. Pitt at home also
Phi -4, think it should be closer to -7. No offense NE, Phi should tear them apart. Can't think of a scenario where the final score is around 21-24 or 20-24...Phi D shouldn't give up 3 TDs to Jones/Stevenson 27-13 more likely to me.
N.O. -3, Think the line should be closer to -5. Defense is going to give that Oline and QB trouble. Don't think the Defense in Tenn has gotten any better from last season. Even without Kamara think it should be more than a FG victory at home.
This post was edited on 9/4/23 at 12:22 pm
14
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:24 pm to H2A2
quote:
N.O. -3, Think the line should be closer to -5. Defense is going to give that Oline and QB trouble. Don't think the Defense in Tenn has gotten any better from last season. Even without Kamara think it should be more than a FG victory at home.
the betting splits on DraftKings show that the amount of bets are even at 50% for each side but 58% of the handle is on the Titans and 42% is on the Saints.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 12:26 pm to H2A2
Anybody ever have luck going with odd sharks predictions?
Posted on 9/4/23 at 2:09 pm to olemc999
quote:
Anybody ever have luck going with odd sharks predictions?
I stopped tailing Twitter “experts” or going with anyone’s predictions other than my own. As a result, August just closed out four consecutive winning months for me.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 6:39 pm to H2A2
I like Green Bay on the moneyline.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 6:50 pm to High C
If someone has valid research I like to at least read it. I know most people can find stats to support any thing they are trying to say
Posted on 9/4/23 at 6:55 pm to TunaTigers
quote:
I like Green Bay on the moneyline.
I like that too.
on Draftkings the most money (spread wise) has come in on Jacksonville, Washington, and the Eagles.
The Eagles are bringing in 85% of the handle at -4. That's a big liability for DK this Sunday.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 7:06 pm to H2A2
what would make me nervous about betting the Saints is that the Titans are going to be run heavy and the Saints weren't as good stopping the run last season as in previous years.
I think they have some questions in the defensive interior. I hope I'm wrong because I'm a Saints fan but trying to take the bias out of it.
I trust Vrabel more than Dennis Allen as a head coach.
I do think the Saints will have an improved offense though. Barring injuries which have killed them the last few years. Saints are mostly at full strength besides Kamara being suspended.
I think they have some questions in the defensive interior. I hope I'm wrong because I'm a Saints fan but trying to take the bias out of it.
I trust Vrabel more than Dennis Allen as a head coach.
I do think the Saints will have an improved offense though. Barring injuries which have killed them the last few years. Saints are mostly at full strength besides Kamara being suspended.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 7:15 pm to H2A2
quote:
If someone has valid research I like to at least read it. I know most people can find stats to support any thing they are trying to say
I agree that valid research is valuable. I look at stats for most of my bets without pushing too deep or overthinking it. It has benefited me recently.
Posted on 9/4/23 at 10:37 pm to TunaTigers
Not buying the Bears hype ?
Posted on 9/5/23 at 9:27 am to H2A2
quote:
Not buying the Bears hype ?
I'm not throwing money either way on them...yet. Think we all know the Bears will go as Justin Fields goes, so I'm gonna wait a few games and see what happens.
Posted on 9/5/23 at 9:43 am to H2A2
New Orleans -3
Tampa Bay +6.5
Buffalo -1.5
I believe Saints will contain Henry. Cannot trust Minnesota to cover big line. Just a hunch on Buffalo.
Tampa Bay +6.5
Buffalo -1.5
I believe Saints will contain Henry. Cannot trust Minnesota to cover big line. Just a hunch on Buffalo.
Posted on 9/5/23 at 10:20 am to Dr Rosenrosen
Fanduel risk free
+954
Chiefs -5.5
Bengals ML
Vikings -6
Jags -4.5
+954
Chiefs -5.5
Bengals ML
Vikings -6
Jags -4.5
Posted on 9/5/23 at 10:30 am to H2A2
I'll probably throw some money on Seattle -5 at home. LA without Kupp might have the worst WRs in the league and their o-line stinks.
Posted on 9/5/23 at 2:58 pm to Morecowbell
I like that too just divisional opponents week 1 has a tough recent history
Posted on 9/5/23 at 8:11 pm to High C
So far, I'm only locked in one.
Got the Lions over a week ago at +6.5
KC now only laying 5 at home with the news Kelce hyperextended his knee.
I'll add others but not that many. Week 1 is super tough always.
Got the Lions over a week ago at +6.5
KC now only laying 5 at home with the news Kelce hyperextended his knee.
I'll add others but not that many. Week 1 is super tough always.
Posted on 9/5/23 at 9:46 pm to H2A2
Tits +3.5
Lions +6
Steelers +3
Texans +10
Colts +4
Cincy/cle u47.5
Pack +8/Commanders -1
Pats +3.5
Giants +3.5
Lions +6
Steelers +3
Texans +10
Colts +4
Cincy/cle u47.5
Pack +8/Commanders -1
Pats +3.5
Giants +3.5
Posted on 9/6/23 at 2:05 am to LooseCannon22282
quote:
Got the Lions over a week ago at +6.5
That’s a good pick. At least you didn’t use some bogus lines like some people ie, “I got Lions +9 back in July”.
Also, there is a 3 game super bowl system where you bet against the super bowl winning team the first 3 game of the following season. Out of those 3 games, they will not cover one of them. I’ve found out about it 5 years ago and it’s been the case every time.
Time to get my arse back to bed.
This post was edited on 9/6/23 at 2:06 am
Posted on 9/6/23 at 7:36 pm to PeteRose
Kc down to -4.5
Posted on 9/6/23 at 8:58 pm to H2A2
Curious of you guys thoughts on me betting my 100$ freebet on Amon St Brown over 25 receiving yards both halves.
Its +135 on fanduel its a special on the game.
Its +135 on fanduel its a special on the game.
This post was edited on 9/6/23 at 8:59 pm
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