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re: Just to reiterate, Vegas is absolutely incredible
Posted on 9/14/19 at 10:41 pm to lsutiger2010
Posted on 9/14/19 at 10:41 pm to lsutiger2010
Les Miles 
0
Posted on 9/14/19 at 10:42 pm to lsutiger2010
quote:
Kansas 20.5 pt dog
Wins by 24
lol yeah i hate the hurrrr durrrr look vegas nailed this line
people act like it happens non stop
Posted on 9/14/19 at 11:21 pm to ReauxlTide222
quote:
That was a bit of a bad beat.
Alabama stopped SC on 4th down to win by 30 or whatever it was but got called for targeting and gave SC another play with seconds left, which they turned into a TD.
gonna have to see if this 1 makes the Bad Beats segment with Stanford Steve on Monday night Sportscenter with SVP
Posted on 9/14/19 at 11:34 pm to lsutiger2010
They actually flipped the spread
Posted on 9/14/19 at 11:42 pm to The Egg
Uva -7 won by 7
Iowa -1 won by 1
Fla -8 won by 8
Drilled lsu total
They do this shite weekly
Iowa -1 won by 1
Fla -8 won by 8
Drilled lsu total
They do this shite weekly
Posted on 9/14/19 at 11:44 pm to oleyeller
quote:
They do this shite weekly
Like it’s their job or some shite.
Posted on 9/14/19 at 11:46 pm to GoldenGuy
quote:
Like it’s their job or some shite.
You would think so right
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:04 am to The Egg
You probably have 10 to 20 people deciding these things so with a worldwide stage, those people are absolute geniuses with their craft
Its remarkable the precision
Its remarkable the precision
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:08 am to Deactived
quote:
You probably have 10 to 20 people deciding these things so with a worldwide stage, those people are absolute geniuses with their craft
it's actually not as complicated as you think. Oddsmakers live in Costa Rica. Yes they use mathematical modeling but its not as sophisticated as one might think. They set openers just hoping to get it in the ballpark knowing the market will correct any mistakes.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:14 am to The Funnie Five
Yea it's not complicated at all. It's so easy you have complete choads making YouTube videos on how to beat the system while getting completely rekt irl
You dont set an opener hoping the market corrects you. Jesus. You set an opener and a select few correct you
You dont set an opener hoping the market corrects you. Jesus. You set an opener and a select few correct you
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:15 am to The Egg
For every spread that they’re on the mark on, there’s another game where they’re way off. See Kansas on Friday night.
People love to say, “Vegas knows exactly what they’re doing” every time a spread in a game turns out to be on point, but refuse to acknowledge the tons of other games where the final score wasn’t even close to what the spread was.
People love to say, “Vegas knows exactly what they’re doing” every time a spread in a game turns out to be on point, but refuse to acknowledge the tons of other games where the final score wasn’t even close to what the spread was.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:21 am to CourtesyFlush
They're not trying to get the line as close to the score as possible. They're trying to get an even amount of wagers on both side. Then they just rake the juice.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:23 am to the_watcher
quote:
You only think they are ridiculous because you remember all the times they hit it on the nose and also because humans aren’t smart. For every -7 fav that wins by 7, there are 10 games that land no where near the spread.
So its pushes and blowouts? theyre within a pt or two so often it makes the season seem scripted
And i definitely think they let the public load up on chalk some wknds
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:28 am to EarlyCuyler3
I get that, but everyone jizzes themselves (see this thread) every time the Vegas line ended up being close to the final score. All I’m saying is that for every one of those games that is close to the spread, there are many that aren’t close at all. And people end up thinking that Vegas is some sort of Nostradamus because they were close on a couple games and way off on a lot of others
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:31 am to CourtesyFlush
quote:
For every spread that they’re on the mark on, there’s another game where they’re way off
Yeah thats not fricking true
its certainly not that pedestrian
Posted on 9/15/19 at 12:38 am to The Egg
Had NW state +51.5. Wild
Posted on 9/15/19 at 1:38 am to CourtesyFlush
That's just variance and random results. They just want to make the line as enticing as possible on both sides. They operate off of what they think the bettors will do.
Posted on 9/15/19 at 4:43 am to Cosmo
quote:
Vegas knows their shite
College football should had all ranking and playoff selections to Vegas and let them run shite
Posted on 9/15/19 at 7:16 am to The Egg
Maryland’s offense looked unstoppable for the first two games of the season. Then the line came out for their game vs Temple. It was Temple +5. There was a thread on here about how screwy that line looked given the first two weeks
Final score:
Temple 20
Maryland 17
Final score:
Temple 20
Maryland 17
Posted on 9/15/19 at 10:44 am to The Egg
Vegas does not have some incredible, Svengali-like power to forecast the future! As I posted in a similar thread on the Tiger Rant:
This is a huge misconception that I hear all the time. Yes, sometimes the Vegas line is right on, and it seems uncanny (and is memorable). But look at the number of outcomes, just from yesterday's Top 25 games, where the Vegas line was off by more than a touchdown:
Clemson (favored by 27.5, won by 35)
Georgia (favored by 33, won by 55)
Oklahoma (favored by 23.5, won by 34)
Ohio State (favored by 16.5, won by 41)
Notre Dame (favored by 35, won by 52)
Penn State (favored by 17.5, won by 7)
UCF (favored by 7.5, won by 18)
Michigan State (favored by 14.5, LOST by 3)
Washington (favored by 21.5, won by 32)
Mississippi State (favored by 8, LOST by 7)
Maryland (favored by 7, LOST by 3)
I haven't factored in here the games against FCS opponents (where it can be hard to find spreads--there were 5 of those). In fact, the only Top 25 games yesterday where the Vegas line "nailed it" (i.e., came within 3 points) were Alabama, Florida, Iowa, and Washington State. So, out of 18 total games (not counting the 5 FCS matchups and the 2 teams with byes), the Vegas spread was "right on" 4 times, way off 11 times, and reasonably accurate (4-7 points off) 3 times.
I actually wish that the Vegas lines were a lot MORE accurate predictors of the actual game outcomes. If they were, you could clean up by betting teasers, because you'd win no matter which side you took.
This is a huge misconception that I hear all the time. Yes, sometimes the Vegas line is right on, and it seems uncanny (and is memorable). But look at the number of outcomes, just from yesterday's Top 25 games, where the Vegas line was off by more than a touchdown:
Clemson (favored by 27.5, won by 35)
Georgia (favored by 33, won by 55)
Oklahoma (favored by 23.5, won by 34)
Ohio State (favored by 16.5, won by 41)
Notre Dame (favored by 35, won by 52)
Penn State (favored by 17.5, won by 7)
UCF (favored by 7.5, won by 18)
Michigan State (favored by 14.5, LOST by 3)
Washington (favored by 21.5, won by 32)
Mississippi State (favored by 8, LOST by 7)
Maryland (favored by 7, LOST by 3)
I haven't factored in here the games against FCS opponents (where it can be hard to find spreads--there were 5 of those). In fact, the only Top 25 games yesterday where the Vegas line "nailed it" (i.e., came within 3 points) were Alabama, Florida, Iowa, and Washington State. So, out of 18 total games (not counting the 5 FCS matchups and the 2 teams with byes), the Vegas spread was "right on" 4 times, way off 11 times, and reasonably accurate (4-7 points off) 3 times.
I actually wish that the Vegas lines were a lot MORE accurate predictors of the actual game outcomes. If they were, you could clean up by betting teasers, because you'd win no matter which side you took.
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