re: Is Joey Votto a Hall of Famer?

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This may be the dumbest sentence ever constructed in relation to baseball stats.

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Well in the same breath you said Votto is easily the best hitter of the 2010s. Joey Votto has fewer career hits, runs, doubles, triples, rbis and a lower batting average than renowned HOF first baseman . . . Mark Grace.

As they say in the Dominican, you don’t walk off the island. Swing the bat, Votto.

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During Votto's 10-year peak, 2008-2107 he was second in wRC+ behind only Trout and actually had a slightly higher wOBA which factors in the value of how you get on base, basically the highest run expectancy. So for his 10-year prime, his ability to get on base created the most expected runs, on a rate basis, of anyone in baseball.

He's a modern player with a modern game. In any other era, i think he gets passed over as a "good" player

I'm not saying he's better than Miggy, i think they are pretty comparable and both HOF players

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I'm not up to speed on the new advanced statistics.

But I disagree Votto and Miggy are "pretty comparable." Miggy is a much better hitter for average and power. Miggy's peak seasons dwarf Votto's.

A much better comparison for Votto is Freddie Freeman. Here are their 162-game averages:
Slash - .297/.412/.513 (Votto), .298/.386/.509 (Freeman)
Hits - 170 (Votto), 179 (Freeman)
Doubles - 37 (Votto), 39 (Freeman)
Triples - 2 (Votto), 3 (Freeman)
Home runs - 28 (Votto), 27 (Freeman)
RBI - 90 (Votto), Freeman (98)
OPS+ - 145 (Votto), 140 (Freeman)

The biggest outlier statistic between Votto and Freeman is BB. Votto has 1338 and Freeman has 860.

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The guy was always a bit too content to take a BB instead driving in runs.

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Already crushed this argument, go look at his career stats with RISP, they are elite. And the hitters above him in OBP with RISP are some of the greatest hitters in MLB history. Were they "content with talking walks"?

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Clutch Stats were "meh":

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2 outs, RISP

.266/.461/.502

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Thats a .963 OPS...10% better than his career OPS

Look at the column all the way to the righttOPS+, and compares your OPS in these situations to your career OPS, 100 means no difference. His OPS in almost ALL situations is his career OPS. He was almost the definition of consistent. You cherry picked one of the 10 clutch stats.




Guess who's clutch stats these are? Mike Trout. His OPS in late and close games is worse than Votto's on a percentage less than his career average. Trout does 22% worse than his career average, vs. Votto's 13%. And guess what Trout also did WORSE with 2 out and RISP, 10% worse than his career average. Votto did 10% better!

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Mediocre numers vs. Power Pitchers (aka Staff Aces who pitch Big Games)

.257/ .394 /.433

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Just like late and close, those are numbers against top flight pitchers and no shite they are gonna be worse. Great hitters aren't great because they destroy great pitching, they are great because they destroy average pitching. They Punish mistakes.

Once again, Trout's OPS vs power pitchers is 24% worse than his average and votto's is only 20% worse.

Trout:


Votto:

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Playoff Stats were turrible (smallish sample size, BUT):

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agree, but like you said, small sample size. He went to the playoffs 4 times, only 3 times in his prime. In 2012 he had an .889 in 22 PA. He did suck in 10 and 13, but that was a measly 15 PA's. 2020 he was washed.

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PLUS...Votto has been a career head case and kid of a jerk. PLUS..(as mentioned) we hoid dings.

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Once he had issues, after his dad died. And he's a national treasure at fricking with people.

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first ballot guy

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Dumbest concept ever. A player is either a HOFer or they aren’t.

His slash line with RISP shows a large increase in .obp. I would like to see what his walk rate is with RISP as compared with his overall career walk rate.

There is an old article from 2014 that looks into this question and does conclude Votto swing at pitches and fastball in the strike zone with RISP below the league average.

I will say this - if Edgar Martinez is a HOF than Votto is a HOF. Votto is basically Edgar Martinez at the plate plus good defense at 1B.

The good news is that none of us get a vote.

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I know he's not the greatest hitter of all time

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hes probably top 10 all time in value at the plate for a 1st baseman. Clear HOFer

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His slash line with RISP shows a large increase in .obp. I would like to see what his walk rate is with RISP as compared with his overall career walk rate.

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with RISP 22.2%
overall career 15.7%
41.4% increase in walks with RISP

Like i posted on the first page, lots of great hitters have increased walk rates with RISP because the pitchers aren't morons.

Ted Williams BB%
with RISP 27.1%
career avg. 20.6%
34.4% increase in walks with RISP
Almost the same delta

How about the much noted Miggy in this thread who "aint walking with RISP"
Miguel Cabrera BB%
with RISP 14.9%
career 10.7%
39.3% increase in walks with RISP

SO miggy and Votto increased their walk rate by almost identical amounts with RISP.

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Guess who's clutch stats these are? Mike Trout. His OPS in late and close games is worse than Votto's on a percentage less than his career average. Trout does 22% worse than his career average, vs. Votto's 13%.

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Great comparison and analogy.

I think you just proved Trout is actually way OVER-rated. (and yes, Trout has always been overrated. IMO.)

Clutch stats are the stats that win games. And yes, while we're at it, Truth is a stat-padder who feasts off of mediocre pitching.

While I agree not even great hitters stats are going to be great against great pitching, Votto's "Clutch" 2 Outs RISP / Late & Close" may be "Cherry-Picking," but they are THE most important stats to look at for a guy who of his supposed caliber. A so-so .265 for a guy who is a career .300 hitter. (We expect HoF'ers to exceed the average in Clutch Stats, right?)

Btw, I'd take Derek Jeter or Bernie Williams easily in a "clutch" situation over either Mike Trout or Votto. It isn't even close. Pitching "Clutch" also counts -- I'd take Andy Pettitte over Justin Verlander in a playoff game. (Pettitte should be in the HoF.)

I am also not a big a fan of the uber-Advanced stats like tOPS and Bill James micro-stats.

No question -- Joey Votto was a very good hitter, had a great eye, was even great for a few years -- and his OBP was spectacular.

But impact? I didn't see it. "Good for the game"? Great guy in the clubhouse?

If HoF criteria is now purely compilation -- including a few core great seasons and players whose career stats look glitzy -- yeah, induct him. But he wouldn't get my vote.