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How important is the +/- stat in the NBA
Posted on 4/14/19 at 6:26 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 6:26 am
I missed the Raptors/Magic games, so I was looking over the recap and stat boxes. Lowry is getting slammed cause he went scoreless. But then I looked at the stat lines and he is the only starter with a positive +. Then I compared him to his back-up VanaVleet..
Lowry 0pts (0-7fg, 0-2ft), 7rbs, 8asts in 34 min, +11
VanVleet 14pts (5-9fg), 2rbs, 1asts in 27 min, -16
So in those 14 minutes Lowry wasn't playing, that VanVleet was, the team was getting destroyed. But Lowry is the escape goat today. Is that right? Shouldn't that stat say it all?
Lowry 0pts (0-7fg, 0-2ft), 7rbs, 8asts in 34 min, +11
VanVleet 14pts (5-9fg), 2rbs, 1asts in 27 min, -16
So in those 14 minutes Lowry wasn't playing, that VanVleet was, the team was getting destroyed. But Lowry is the escape goat today. Is that right? Shouldn't that stat say it all?
10
Posted on 4/14/19 at 6:31 am to brmark70816
quote:
But Lowry is the escape goat today
Posted on 4/14/19 at 6:38 am to brmark70816
Here is another, that is sort of the reverse. I watched the Nets/Sixers game and thought that Russell was awesome and lead the team to the huge victory. But that doesn't seem to be the case at all..
Russell 26 pts, 3rbs, 4asts in 29 min, -10
Dinwiddie 18 pts, 3rbs, 1asts in 32 min, +17
Turns out the team was getting spanked with Russell out there. So in those 15 minutes that Dinwiddie played without Russell, is when the team really won. Puts a whole other spin on the game..
Russell 26 pts, 3rbs, 4asts in 29 min, -10
Dinwiddie 18 pts, 3rbs, 1asts in 32 min, +17
Turns out the team was getting spanked with Russell out there. So in those 15 minutes that Dinwiddie played without Russell, is when the team really won. Puts a whole other spin on the game..
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 6:41 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 6:43 am to brmark70816
It's one of the worst "advanced" stats IMO.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 7:25 am to brmark70816
It’s an “incomplete” stat for sure. It could mean something about a particular player’s performance, or it could mean nothing.
For instance, what if Embiid was dominating in the post while Russell was on the court, is that something that Russell can really do anything about?
For instance, what if Embiid was dominating in the post while Russell was on the court, is that something that Russell can really do anything about?
Posted on 4/14/19 at 7:27 am to Epic Cajun
quote:
For instance, what if Embiid was dominating in the post
Does Embiid even know where the post is?
Posted on 4/14/19 at 7:29 am to ReauxlTide222
It was a hypothetical
ETA: what if Shaq was dominating in the post, could you really blame Reggie Miller if he had a negative +/-, he can’t really do anything to affect that.
ETA: what if Shaq was dominating in the post, could you really blame Reggie Miller if he had a negative +/-, he can’t really do anything to affect that.
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 7:31 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 7:40 am to Epic Cajun
I hear you.
I only use +/- when it helps my argument. If it doesn’t, it’s the worst stat there is.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 7:55 am to brmark70816
On its own it's not a super telling stat, but it is one that should make you go 'hmmmmm' like it did with Lowry yesterday. The fact that Toronto performed that much better with Lowry on the court has to mean something. But it's very susceptible to being distorted by context, such as a player playing the majority of their minutes with another star or against bench units.
The actual advanced +/- stats like RAPM that account for who you play with and against are the best single number stats out there, but single-game plain +/- isn't very helpful without context.
The actual advanced +/- stats like RAPM that account for who you play with and against are the best single number stats out there, but single-game plain +/- isn't very helpful without context.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 8:27 am to ReauxlTide222
quote:
Does Embiid even know where the post is?
That gave me a chuckle
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:34 am to brmark70816
I think it is best used over a long period of time and not just a single game
The Raptors with Lowry all year have been elite. I think without him they have a losing record. That +/- from yesterday is right in line with what has happened the majority of the year so he definitely does have some positive impact outside of scoring.
The Raptors with Lowry all year have been elite. I think without him they have a losing record. That +/- from yesterday is right in line with what has happened the majority of the year so he definitely does have some positive impact outside of scoring.
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 9:37 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:43 am to brmark70816
quote:
How important is the +/- stat
The biggest problem with stats in the NBA is that fans and some analyst don't look at all of them as pieces to the puzzle.
You can't look at fg% and 3pt% without looking at eFG% and usage. But some still do. +/- is still a useful stat, but you gotta look at all the pieces to the puzzle to use it in the right context.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:45 am to LittleRockHog501
He was -7.6 net points according to dean Oliver.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:48 am to brmark70816
It's not great. It means way more in hockey IMO.
It doesn't account for players going against first/second units etc.
It doesn't account for players going against first/second units etc.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 9:59 am to brmark70816
It means exactly what it says, that when Kyle Lowry was on the court the Raptors were much better than the Magic. Whether or not Lowry is responsible for that, and how much, is a different question.
+- isn’t an advanced stat, and I don’t think it’s worth much personally. You are just going to end up looking at other stats to determine if the +- means anything anyway, so I’d rather just ignore it as a serious measure of a player’s effectiveness
+- isn’t an advanced stat, and I don’t think it’s worth much personally. You are just going to end up looking at other stats to determine if the +- means anything anyway, so I’d rather just ignore it as a serious measure of a player’s effectiveness
Posted on 4/14/19 at 10:53 am to Epic Cajun
quote:
It’s an “incomplete” stat
quote:
best used over a long period of time and not just a single game
These statements right here, unless the single game is particularly egregious.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 11:18 am to TbirdSpur2010
I do wonder how advanced stats have shaped the game currently. The players obviously know the stats exist and are measured by them. Have they started to cater their games to optimising their grades and has this been at the sacrifice of other parts of their games that might make the team better?
Take Anthony Davis. By any statistical measure, he is a top player in the NBA and puts up historical levels of production. But had he shaped his game that way to maximize how he is graded? Are other players doing similar things?
Take Anthony Davis. By any statistical measure, he is a top player in the NBA and puts up historical levels of production. But had he shaped his game that way to maximize how he is graded? Are other players doing similar things?
This post was edited on 4/14/19 at 11:23 am
Posted on 4/14/19 at 11:44 am to brmark70816
quote:
+/- stat
Fake stats
Posted on 4/14/19 at 11:59 am to brmark70816
For Davis, statistically he is certainly one of the best players in the league. But there is more to winning than a box score. Intangibles. Davis has always lacked leadership. Look at lebron. He really hasn’t fallen off much at all physically, but his impact in the locker room plays a big hand in his lack of team success.
Posted on 4/14/19 at 12:27 pm to brmark70816
I think it's a trash stat but some people look at it as if it's an end all be all measure.
So you have a team that has 4 Durants and 1 Javale. That team plays all 48 minutes and beats some team by 25 points. Every player will be +25.
Javale could have 3pts/2rebs/20to and still be +25. It's a trash stat, especially for single game use.
So you have a team that has 4 Durants and 1 Javale. That team plays all 48 minutes and beats some team by 25 points. Every player will be +25.
Javale could have 3pts/2rebs/20to and still be +25. It's a trash stat, especially for single game use.
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