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re: How does Vegas do it? David Montgomery’s season total rushing prop was set at 775.5 yards

Posted on 12/17/24 at 2:21 pm to
Posted by coastland909
Member since Nov 2024
412 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

if not for the injury


Injury...how convenient.

This makes it even more obvious.
Posted by High C
viewing the fall....
Member since Nov 2012
59360 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

Injury...how convenient.

This makes it even more obvious.


Yep, he’s having surgery and will miss the Lions best opportunity to win a Super Bowl in years so a few guys don’t hit his rushing over.
Posted by CSinLC
Member since May 2018
2061 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 6:04 pm to
I agree. I get that Vegas is wrong a lot of times but many times I can’t understand how they get the numbers so close
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
135751 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 6:17 pm to
Analytics
Posted by grizzlylongcut
Member since Sep 2021
14283 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 6:21 pm to
There’s like 2 weeks left in the season, this wouldn’t have even been close
Posted by Evolved Simian
Bushwood Country Club
Member since Sep 2010
23115 posts
Posted on 12/17/24 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

You just notice the close ones.


Well no shite. That's why it's such a bad beat.
Posted by GeauxtigersMs36
The coast
Member since Jan 2018
12425 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 8:01 am to
Last night Memphis wvu line was 5.5 I got it at 5. Push!
Posted by SoWhat
Member since May 2013
618 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 8:47 am to
quote:

Last night Memphis wvu line was 5.5 I got it at 5. Push!


I took Memphis -5.5 and lost. Just unbelievable.
Posted by 3rdWardShasta
Member since Jul 2024
4 posts
Posted on 12/18/24 at 1:54 pm to
It’s actually not as complex as you think, or at least as I thought. Nate Silver does a great job breaking it down here. Couple of interesting nuggets I learned is that the traditional casinos don’t actually make much money off of sports gambling, it’s treated more as a “loss leader” or a value added service. Same with poker. Slots are where they want you. And when it comes to DraftKings/Fanduel, etc. where sports betting is the primary product, it’s shocking how quickly you will be limited if you show any aptitude at all for actually winning your bets

LINK
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