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re: Going for 2 when you score a TD down 14
Posted on 10/23/18 at 11:44 am to PEPE
Posted on 10/23/18 at 11:44 am to PEPE
quote:
You can be completely correct in your strategy but if it's non-conventional and doesn't pan out, the dullards who don't understand simple probabilities and expected value calculations start hooting like gibbons.
You keep saying this, as if football is a game dictated by probabilities.
If your RB averages over 4 yards a carry you run him every single play of the game, right? Or if he is over 2.5 yards run him every play including on 4th.
2pt conversions are momentum changers, which have an effect on how the game plays out.
I will also contend that teams have certain plays they practice for 2pt conversions, and they may work better in some spots than others. It’s a very specific and rehearsed situation.
Having said all that, I don’t have a problem doing it either way. But that is my point, football is unpredictable and that includes decisions made on sidelines.
1
Posted on 10/24/18 at 8:24 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
That’s a different scenario than the one in last night game. in that scenario it would be the right call to kick that XP.
It is a different scenario. And down 14, it is far more obvious and important of an information advantage to go for 2 on the first TD.
But why wouldn't you do it down 15? I guess with 3 minutes or so, it might not matter much. But you want to know if you will need 2 more scores or just a TD so you can manage clock and onside kicks accordingly.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 8:27 am to TheSexecutioner
Well bc if you don’t make it at that point you are down two scores. And pretty much the game is over. By kicking the XP you keep your sqaud in the game. When down 14 you miss and it is still a one score game.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 11:47 am to Boomshockalocka
quote:
Well bc if you don’t make it at that point you are down two scores. And pretty much the game is over. By kicking the XP you keep your sqaud in the game.
This makes zero sense. If you don't make it at a later point, the game is equally "pretty much over." You have to make it at some point. Or score an extra time in the event you don't. So going for it early allows you enough time to prepare for that contingency.
Like the down 14 scenario, it is about the team having information to make future decisions.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 11:56 am to TheSexecutioner
Bdk why you would ever elect to maybe make it a two score game when you can kick the Xp and keep it a one score game. there’s one way to guarantee a loss. That’s to go for it and not make it.
Posted on 10/24/18 at 12:30 pm to OceanMan
quote:It is.
as if football is a game dictated by probabilities
quote:No, because football is a game dictated by probabilities.
If your RB averages over 4 yards a carry you run him every single play of the game, right?
Posted on 10/24/18 at 12:44 pm to PEPE
quote:
Going for 2 after the first TD when down 14 has long been proven to be mathematically correct.
does this factor in having Eli at QB
Posted on 10/24/18 at 12:46 pm to slackster
quote:
Like if they're down by 15 with 5 to go, they'll kick an XP, even thought you'll have to get a 2 PT conversion eventually. Math says go for it asap, that way you know your predicament and can possibly adjust accordingly. Conventional coaching kicks the XP first.
Saints vs Redskins 2017
Posted on 10/24/18 at 12:48 pm to CocoLoco
quote:Oddly enough, I think the worse your team is, the more likely that you should go for 2.
does this factor in having Eli at QB
Meaning, if you're clearly the lesser team, you want to shorten the game as much as possible. If I know i'm the worse team, I'd much prefer the game hinge on 1 two point conversion as opposed to a full overtime.
The longer the sample, the better the odds of the better team winning.
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