re: CFB bets week 7

quote:

---

The main thing is that you cannot lose money in that situation

---

my dumb arse was driving home from the lsu game and didnt even realize it till i got home

My full lineup for this weekend:

USCw -3
FSU -13
Ga Tech -7.5
Ok State -7.5
Bama -24.5
LSU -14.5
South Carolina -3.5

Does anyone else have Florida State? They are favored by 12.5.

I love betting against Duke here as they've won/covered three straight games. And it seems like a game where FSU takes out some frustration.

quote:

---

I could get it at -17 right now.

---

34-13 is my most conservative prediction for this one... id take them up to -20.5

Yeah - I took FSU -13... Should be a solid play.

quote:

---

At what point do ya'll think the spread on LSU is too high?

I could get it at -17 right now.

---

It's still -15.5 most places so you're getting screwed. Sorry to tell you.

quote:

---

It really is an untapped well that no one really thinks about. I always throw the late game in a parlay just to increase the parlay odds. Either that or some Random arse NFL game that I think the line might move alot to where I hedge before game time but the line has shifted since my parlay bet so there is a 1 or 2 point window where i win both bets

---

Okay, after much discussion with betting 'gurus' who know a shitload more that us, this is a terrible strategy. Reason being, if you leave the last game off, and your parlay hits, you win more money than if you hedge.

I'll do a new example since the other one I had was for 5dimes odds.

3 team parlay bet of $10 wins you $60.
4 team parlay bet of $10 wins you $100

Why even through that last game on there, knowing you will hedge because AT BEST, you walk away with $50 from whatever side wins MINUS the juice you used to bet the losing side. You are losing a lot of money by employing this strategy.

quote:

---

This is actually with 5dimes odds of 12/1 on a 4 team teaser which is different than the industry standard of 10/1. I didn't realize it until I was checking out odds on another site other than 5dimes and realized 10/1 is the typical 4 team parlay payout

I'll use some number as an example.

Say you bet a 3 team parlay for $10...if all three hit, you win $60.

If you use the 'throw on another later game to hedge' approach, you will bet $10 to win $122.83

Initially it may look like you have more of a return by hedging the last game, win a $61.42 guaranteed profit. However, that is not the case. Factor in the 10% juice that you lose on your losing bet ($6 in this example), you are actually giving yourself a lower return on the same exact bet if you would have just gone with the 3 team parlay.

---

I hope that clears things up a little, and I hope that made sense.

quote:

---

My bookie follows what lines bodog gives ya. Just a college kid. Only putting down $20.

---

Bodog is known for favoring dogs big time.

NFL betting = terrible unless you know what you are doing




NYG hurt me in survivor