re: CFB Advanced Metrics and Computer Polls, Week 12

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Vanderbilts highest scoring game this year was 38 against LSU. Their 2nd highest was against lowly Purdue with 24 points. Both in losses yikes

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That's 1

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and ole miss 37

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That's 2

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Alabama had 41

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in 10 games, they topped that 6 times.

So like I said, 2 teams means "most teams" apparently?

I just think it’s hilarious which 2 teams those are.

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you really out here defending LSU defense? horrible look dude

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People have gone overboard with the criticism. It’s not a great unit but they’re better than what they showed against Ole Miss & have come up with big plays when needed all year.

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As has been previously said, LSU has a visible problem on defense and the metrics agree.

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We get that. Now explain how Bamas defense isnt a problem when we outscored them? No one is arguing OSU in these polls(at least rationally). It's LSU fans saying, rightfully, that any poll, human or computer, that has Alabama ahead of LSU is a crock and shouldnt he glorified as credible by any fanbase.

None of it matters and none of those polls factor into anything. You guys keep winning and we will do the same and we will see you when the schedule lines up. Then all the bullshite dick measuring ends when one or the other goes back home crying. We know how that went last time.

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And thus ranks bama ahead of LSU.

List is shite.

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I’m aware of 7 points based metrics (FPI, SP+, Sagarin, Massey-Peabody, PowerRank, SRS, and FEI—which is based on points per-drive), and although some need to update for this weekend’s games, every single one has Alabama slightly ahead of LSU. I think this is why the committee’s ranking is important to account for things like Tua’s injury and LSU’s victory; however, when a slew of objective composites, have one team slightly ahead of another, I don’t think you can just consider that to be worthless.

LSU’s overall performance AND resume have them (deservedly) with an inside track to the playoffs while Alabama’s resume (specifically their loss has them the on track to not make it. That being said, even with the LSU game, I don’t think we can say that if LSU and Alabama played 100 games on a neutral field, that LSU would clearly win a majority. Luckily for them the 1 game they played matters more than that though.

There are generally two kinds of polls:

Predictive and Evaluative

Predictive polls as you might guess, predictably what teams would beat whom or lose to whom and by how much. (SP+, Sagarin predictor, FEI, etc.)

Evaluative polls attempt to find the most deserving teams based on as purely objective set of facts as possible. (Colley, Jelly Juke, etc)

They serve different purposes and use different metrics and formulas to analyze the data we have, which for college football is honestly severely lacking in comparison to the NFL.

Understanding how and why polls rank teams the way they do is very important in these kinds of discussions.

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I don’t think we can say that if LSU and Alabama played 100 games on a neutral field, that LSU would clearly win a majority.

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So you didn't watch the game then

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You can when the "lower" team had played a harder schedule and beaten the higher ranked team at their home stadium.

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You can RANK them higher, and the pollsters and committee has done so, and I would as well. But that’s not the same as creating an objective statistical model to evaluate/predict performance.

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There is literally not a single reason for Bama to be higher than LSU at this point.

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Except all of those models without any subjective inputs have done just that. I mean 4/5 of the playoff champions and a number of BCS champions had lost regular season games, all to clearly inferior opponents. Now obviously LSU doesn’t fit that “inferior” criteria, but I wouldn’t but I won’t think anyone could have argued that those other teams deserved to be ranked higher in the metrics than the opponents.

And if anything, LSU in 2007 (2 losses) and in 2011 (beat Bama by 3 on road; lost by 21 in championship) should show that the result of a game or two does not provide a complete picture of the quality of the team and their opponent.

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So you didn't watch the game then

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Yes I did at an early family thanksgiving with all of us wanting Bama to lose and cheering for Burrow on top of that.

And it was a very good game, with LSU being a deserving winner. That being said, we also saw two, game changing plays, resulting in a 10-14 point swing in points that we wouldn’t expect to happen very often in the first half (Tua just dropping the ball unforced inside the 5; Tua’s late first-half interception, although that was a combination of an unforced error and an opportunistic defensive play).

I’m in no way diminishing the end result nor what happened to get there. That being said, I can’t just ignore that events that are not likely to repeat that contributed to the final outcome when evaluating what could happen if the teams played a bunch of games to make a better determination about who is better.

I mean even as an OSU fan, I’m completely comfortable saying that Miami was a better team when OSU beat them in the national champion game. But that doesn’t change the end result; although it probably did show that the teams were closer than what we thought going into it.

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The only thing I get from watching both LSU and OSU is that Ohio state is better at playing the entire game. LSU has not put together two good halfs in many of their games. We either run away with it in the first half then let the other team back in or play it close in the first half then dominate the second.

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I think that’s more of the defensive flaws have made the team less complete overall moreso than being less complete throughout a game. In other words, your offense is consistently great, but your defense is both inconsistent and at times, quite poor, which is basically the opposite of what we normally see with LSU.

In fact, while I think LSU is better overall, it reminds me a lot of 2018 OSU with a great offense led by a great QB, but with an inconsistent defense that can have some major struggles and give up huge plays, which puts more pressure on that offense to win games.

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I'm thinking y'all are going to have a few struggles to finish out the year though and we won't have any problems until maybe Georgia.

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Well yeah. OSU plays Penn State and Michigan, 2 very good teams while LSU plays A&M and Arkansas, one decent team and one terrible team.

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By the time we play y'all I suspect you won't be nearly as confident.

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While I believe OSU has been the better team overall (comparably awesome offenses, but with OSU having a clear edge defensively), that’s a long ways from being especially confident in a one game matchup against a top team.