re: Breeder's Cup gambling thread

4 years ago, i learned the most important lesson fo my handicapping career on this day... it was the first of the 2nd in a row years of the BC being at santa ainta. they just got the new pro ride surface.

i got absoutly pillaged. and honestly, it wasn't even beucase of bad handicapping to this day i think a lot of my picks made vvery good sense.

i got killed, and i think a lot of people got killed on those 2 days, beucase i took the track for granted. the turf course was rock hard and the pro ride, no one had run over it yet that wasn't based in california.

this year it's the same deal. this smells a lot like 2008. the track is rock fricking hard. the turf track is like pavement. all these horses from the mid west and east coast haven't seen anything like this hard arse track here in socal, nor are very many of them accussomted tot he difference in racing styles that has to be accounted for (socalr aces are much more speed oriented)

in liue of that, in combination with the fact that hollywood park meet coming up i am going to do great at, and i play aussie racing and the melborne stakes festival is goingo n, i'm not really gonna dive in, just live to fight another day. this is how i make a living and there will be other battles.

but i do like some .

in the first today i really like Quial Hill. I play socal everyday this is my bread and butter track so I follow these horses all the time.


in the 7th, i don't see anyway executive privilege is going to lose this race. IMHO she's the best 2 YO in the country regardless of gender. that 2 to 1 is stealing money.

I don't like the euros on this turf course at all. so while it makes sense to like some like up i kinda like in the turf, gonna have to pass.


in the ladies classic, i really like awesome feather. i like her becuase she is the most verisitle filly as far as the type of dirt she likes. she has won at gulfstream, she's won at clader, 2 polar opposite tracks, she's won at belmont and churchill. she should take to this track.

Honestly i just don't think royal delta is as good as her racing line makes her look.



okay.. tomorrow.. in the filly and mare sprint. i'm going to take a shot here. groupie doll is the odds on choice and she should win. but, she has never ran on this turf course, while she's won at churchill she has a very turfy pedigree and i question if she is going to take to this track like churchill.. that's not a given, not a lot of horses take to both.

i am going to say frick it and i'm going with rumor. at one point last year she was she was considered to be the best 3YO filly in the country. she's a half sister to multiple grade 1 winner dixie chatter. she loves this track. she runs her best here.

this is one of those plays where i don't think she will win, but she's better than 20 to 1 and i could easily see a scenerio where she pulls it off.


Dirt mile i am a huge rail trip fan, so that's where i am going. this is his best distance as well. if he has the lead in the middle of the back stretch this race is over


tuff sprint it's hard for me to go against california flag but starspangedbanner is just too good to pass up at 10 to 1. shite he's the best horse in this race by a considerable margin. if he doesn't get in trouble he won't lose he just has a gear that no other horse in this race has.


I think you will see an upset in the junveille but i dont' know who. I don't like any of the top 3 . gun to my head i would go with fortify. but i am going to pass this race



sprint going with amazombie

mile going with wise dan

classic ron the greek

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I'll be in and out today. Dropping off the dog at the vet then on to new Orleans

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I thought you were at Santa Anita?

You want the BC picks?

Flying up today if I don't kill the damn boy first

Well, I married an a-hole

quote:

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Well, I married an a-hole

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When did you get married? I never knew that.

Last October


Did it in ky, had my bachelorette at keeneland

I'd you send it to me? I'll take it too :)

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