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Message
re: Basketball Bet Thread 12/14
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:35 pm to bamafan425
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:35 pm to bamafan425
quote:
Are you gonna play the 2H or 3Q lines no matter what?
The system is built around the premise that Q and H lines are set based on the full-game line but some teams perform relatively better in some Qs and Hs than others. So only lines released before the game will be chosen. It looks like all lines are released before the game except 2H. I will probably take 2H lines if they meet or are better than their expected value before the game.
So that would be Kings 2H +6 or better as a 4 star play and Nuggets 2H pk as a 2 star lean.
We'll see how it goes. There are several variables I can tinker with as we go forward if necessary. These plays are pure system from the spreadsheet with no qualitative input from me. I'm interested to see how it turns out.
2
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:56 pm to maclauer
It's worth mentioning that I have two different formulas in play here. The one I posted earlier is the more complex one that relies much more on home/road splits. The only play posted/played from the more generic version is Lakers 1Q -1 because of how strong it was in that formula and formula 2 leaned that way.
Again, the Lakers are the only one of these I'm playing because of Formula 1 but I guess it's worth tracking how this one does.
Formula 1 3 star:
Lakers 1Q -2
Thunder 1Q -4
Thunder 1H -7.5
Formula 1 2 star leans:
Wizards 2Q +1.5
Pacers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Warriors 1H -2
Magic 2H +2
Nets 1H -4.5
Pistons 3Q +2
Pistons 2H +4
Bucks 2Q pk
Kings 3Q +3.5
Kings 2H +6
Jazz 3Q pk
Yall can ignore all these picks I got everywhere. I've got papers and spreadsheets all over the place and I'm kind of using these posts as a place to document outputs all in one place
Again, the Lakers are the only one of these I'm playing because of Formula 1 but I guess it's worth tracking how this one does.
Formula 1 3 star:
Lakers 1Q -2
Thunder 1Q -4
Thunder 1H -7.5
Formula 1 2 star leans:
Wizards 2Q +1.5
Pacers 1Q -2
Warriors 1Q -1
Warriors 1H -2
Magic 2H +2
Nets 1H -4.5
Pistons 3Q +2
Pistons 2H +4
Bucks 2Q pk
Kings 3Q +3.5
Kings 2H +6
Jazz 3Q pk
Yall can ignore all these picks I got everywhere. I've got papers and spreadsheets all over the place and I'm kind of using these posts as a place to document outputs all in one place
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 6:08 pm
Posted on 12/14/12 at 5:57 pm to maclauer
Denver -1 my only play. Have a good night fellas.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 6:03 pm to Zipfer2022
Lal is my only play thus far.....
Posted on 12/14/12 at 7:02 pm to TJG210
UCF better not shite the bed
Posted on 12/14/12 at 7:16 pm to maclauer
Formula 1 would accept Magic 2H +5.5 as a 2 star lean
Formula 1 does not accept Pistons 2H +1
Formula 1 does not accept Pistons 2H +1
This post was edited on 12/14/12 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 12/14/12 at 7:54 pm to maclauer
UCF up by 6 with 4 sec. left, turns the ball over and wins by four.
I had UCF -5
WHAT
THE
frick
I had UCF -5
WHAT
THE
frick
Posted on 12/14/12 at 7:56 pm to maclauer
I don't think you can get moosed any harder than I just did on UCF -5.
Up 6 with the ball, 4 seconds left. Inbound pass stolen for a basket as time expires for the game to finish as a 4 point UCF win.
All you can do is laugh at that.
Up 6 with the ball, 4 seconds left. Inbound pass stolen for a basket as time expires for the game to finish as a 4 point UCF win.
All you can do is laugh at that.
Posted on 12/14/12 at 7:56 pm to texastiger38
quote:
texastiger38
I know dude
Posted on 12/14/12 at 8:01 pm to maclauer
quote:
maclauer
You can't even hardly dream up that shite.
But, whatever it happens I guess
Posted on 12/14/12 at 8:13 pm to maclauer
Neither formula accepts Kings 2H +2
Posted on 12/14/12 at 9:10 pm to maclauer
Suns +2 full game. Got Jazz -5 2H for a NICE middle shot. Jazz +11 full game and Suns +2 full game. 
Posted on 12/14/12 at 11:40 pm to maclauer
Formula 1 2 stars: 8-2
Wizards 2Q +1.5 WIN
Pacers 1Q -2 WIN
Warriors 1Q -1 LOSS
Warriors 1H -2.5 LOSS
Magic 2H +5.5 WIN
Nets 1H -4.5 WIN
Pistons 3Q +2 WIN
Bucks 2Q pk WIN
Kings 3Q +3.5 WIN
Jazz 3Q pk WIN
Formula 1 3 stars: 1-1-1
Lakers 1Q -2 PUSH
Thunder 1Q -4 LOSS
Thunder 1H -7.5 WIN
FORMULA 1 GOES 9-3-1
Formula 2 2 stars: 9-4
76ers 2Q +1.5 WIN
Pacers 3Q -1.5 WIN
Magic 3Q +1 WIN
Pistons 3Q +2 WIN
TWolves 1Q -2 WIN
TWolves 3Q -1 WIN
Hornets 4Q +1 LOSS
Rockets 2Q -1 LOSS
Kings 3Q +3.5 WIN
Kings 4Q +2.5 WIN
Jazz 1Q pk LOSS
Suns 2Q pk WIN
Grizzlies 1H pk LOSS
Formula 2 3 stars: 0-2
Warriors 1Q -1 LOSS
Celtics +1 LOSS
Formula 2 4 stars: 2-0
Thunder 2Q -3.5 WIN
Thunder 1H -7.5 WIN
FORMULA 2 GOES 11-6
In Summary:
2 star games: 17-6
3 star games: 1-3-1
4 star games: 2-0
Games picked by both Formula 1 and 2 (in italics): 3-1
Combined formula record: 20-9-1
Wizards 2Q +1.5 WIN
Pacers 1Q -2 WIN
Warriors 1Q -1 LOSS
Warriors 1H -2.5 LOSS
Magic 2H +5.5 WIN
Nets 1H -4.5 WIN
Pistons 3Q +2 WIN
Bucks 2Q pk WIN
Kings 3Q +3.5 WIN
Jazz 3Q pk WIN
Formula 1 3 stars: 1-1-1
Lakers 1Q -2 PUSH
Thunder 1Q -4 LOSS
Thunder 1H -7.5 WIN
FORMULA 1 GOES 9-3-1
Formula 2 2 stars: 9-4
76ers 2Q +1.5 WIN
Pacers 3Q -1.5 WIN
Magic 3Q +1 WIN
Pistons 3Q +2 WIN
TWolves 1Q -2 WIN
TWolves 3Q -1 WIN
Hornets 4Q +1 LOSS
Rockets 2Q -1 LOSS
Kings 3Q +3.5 WIN
Kings 4Q +2.5 WIN
Jazz 1Q pk LOSS
Suns 2Q pk WIN
Grizzlies 1H pk LOSS
Formula 2 3 stars: 0-2
Warriors 1Q -1 LOSS
Celtics +1 LOSS
Formula 2 4 stars: 2-0
Thunder 2Q -3.5 WIN
Thunder 1H -7.5 WIN
FORMULA 2 GOES 11-6
In Summary:
2 star games: 17-6
3 star games: 1-3-1
4 star games: 2-0
Games picked by both Formula 1 and 2 (in italics): 3-1
Combined formula record: 20-9-1
Posted on 12/15/12 at 12:37 am to maclauer
2-2 night for me
maclauer good call on the magic. I got greedy and felt like going for the hat trick and fading them, and was wrong.
I liked my other 3 picks though. Celtics lost but I just really liked their defensive strengths up against a flawed Houston offense. As it turns out though, the 3-PT game and fast break points were there for Houston ah well.
The Wolves game "kinda" went how I expeted... I saw big games from Pekovic/Kirilenko... I was worried about Love's recent shooting, and it showed up again tonight, but they overcame it.
On a side, I actually really like this Wolves team when Rubio comes bcak. Pekovic is one of the best scoring centers in the league, Link is so disruptive defensively and gets so many "garbage buckets", Love will get back to form, and then you have the passing/defense of Rubio. Only deficiency? lack of slashing 2 guard.
Looking ahsead, Memphis is looking like an AUTO fade tomorrow... a b2b in Utah 20 hours after the last game concluded is about as difficult as it gets.
maclauer good call on the magic. I got greedy and felt like going for the hat trick and fading them, and was wrong.
I liked my other 3 picks though. Celtics lost but I just really liked their defensive strengths up against a flawed Houston offense. As it turns out though, the 3-PT game and fast break points were there for Houston ah well.
The Wolves game "kinda" went how I expeted... I saw big games from Pekovic/Kirilenko... I was worried about Love's recent shooting, and it showed up again tonight, but they overcame it.
On a side, I actually really like this Wolves team when Rubio comes bcak. Pekovic is one of the best scoring centers in the league, Link is so disruptive defensively and gets so many "garbage buckets", Love will get back to form, and then you have the passing/defense of Rubio. Only deficiency? lack of slashing 2 guard.
Looking ahsead, Memphis is looking like an AUTO fade tomorrow... a b2b in Utah 20 hours after the last game concluded is about as difficult as it gets.
This post was edited on 12/15/12 at 12:45 am
Posted on 12/15/12 at 1:09 am to Ghazi
+115 on UCF ML
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