re: Anyone want to chime in on the mathematical soundness of my NBA simulating model

Posted by DallasTiger45

Member since May 2012

8649 posts

Posted on 1/20/17 at 3:40 pm to goldennugget

quote:
Rockets and Warriors other extreme. GSW is #1 in pace and Rockets are #4. So fast tempo game right. Model puts game tempo at 104, 8 possessions faster than the league average. Even then - simulated total is 235 which is really high - but still 4.5 points short of the posted total of 239.5. I'm guessing the discrepency is based on how the odds makers (and the market) calculate possessions. The .44 method overestimates possessions.

Do you think oddsmakers just blindly post the number their model spits out? I would think there would be plenty of situations where they anticipate heavy action on one side of the number so they shade it to that side...a total between the 2 highest flying teams in the league would probably be one of those scenarios.

Posted by S

RIP Wayde

Member since Jan 2007

164443 posts

Posted on 1/20/17 at 10:13 pm to goldennugget

Unibomber vibes.

Posted by Cleanmatt

Who Dat Nation

Member since Oct 2010

2907 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 12:14 am to goldennugget

quote:
I'm permanently banned from SBR

Should be permanently banned from TD as well.

Posted by BananaHammock

Member since Aug 2011

13150 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 1:43 am to goldennugget

quote:
for years posters would joke about other users being a homo

I call several of my friends homosexuals all the time. It's an excellent go-to.

Posted by Ed Osteen

Member since Oct 2007

58343 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 1:49 am to goldennugget

So you're autistic, it makes so much sense now

Posted by nolatiger92

Member since Apr 2008

721 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 9:19 am to goldennugget

What's an example of a "team turnover"? Would it lead to a dead ball situation in a game and actually slow down the tempo?

Posted by goldennugget

NIL Ruined College Sports

Member since Jul 2013

25268 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 9:25 am to nolatiger92

quote:
What's an example of a "team turnover"? Would it lead to a dead ball situation in a game and actually slow down the tempo?

Team Turnovers are rare, for example the Hawks only have 19 of them this year in their 43 games. Not even averaging 1 per game.

It's a turnover not credited to an individual player. An example would be a shot clock violation in which no player had the ball in their hands when it expired.

A team turnover still ends the possession so no it would not slow down the tempo.

Posted by MusclesofBrussels

Member since Dec 2015

4846 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 9:36 am to goldennugget

quote:
I was a well respected member of that board for years and all of a sudden get banned.

Something tells me the well respected part isn't true...

Posted by goldennugget

NIL Ruined College Sports

Member since Jul 2013

25268 posts

Posted on 1/21/17 at 9:49 am to Ed Osteen

quote:
So you're autistic, it makes so much sense now

I had interviews for job promotions lined up. In the pre-interview they told me to present an example that best exhibits my math, logic, and excel skills. So this is what I created. It worked and got me a promotion so what more can you ask for. If that makes me an autist in your eyes I don't give a shite - it got me a new position and better pay and I get to move out of Seattle. Win Win Win.