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Annual "History of the CFB Playoff Committee Decisions" Thread
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:09 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:09 am
I make this thread every year to attempt to inform people on the topic, since many have zero clue. With our initial rankings coming out tomorrow figured this would be a great time. Here is the top 4, number 5, and Notre Dame every year of the playoffs.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
________________________________________
5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
2021
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to aTm
2) Michigan 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Michigan St.
3) UGA 12-1. Loss to Alabama in CCG.
4) Cincinnati 13-0. Conf champion (G5).
________________________________________
5) Notre Dame 11-1. Loss to Cincinnati.
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
2021: Big 12 Champ Baylor. 11-2 with losses to Ok.St. and TCU. Also Pac 12 Champ Utah, 10-3 with losses to BYU, San Diego st, and Oregon STate. Also ACC champ Pittsburgh, 11-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Miami.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 32 playoff teams, only 4 of them (12%) made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame, 2021 UGA).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 4 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for PSU. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 covid year was a weird one but Notre Dame had the same number of losses as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round. Notre Dame also had 2 more wins. 2021 UGA and 2021 ND had somewhat similar resumes in that both were non-champions that lost to a team in the playoffs, but UGA had one more victory and played in a CCG unlike ND.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated or 1-loss to do so. Last year they finished with only 1 loss and still were left out.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because it is by far the biggest thing people overlook or simply ignore. People always point to 2017 and 2021 as support for why a tennessee or an alabama or georgia or a whoever (in 2022) may make the playoffs while completely ignoring the fact that other P5 conferences actually exist and will have a champion.
The bottom line on making the playoffs is 1)Win your conference 2) If you don't win your conference, you need other P5 champions to have multiple losses. Simple as that.
2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5
2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings
2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor
2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings
2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game
2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings
2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
________________________________________
5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama
2021
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to aTm
2) Michigan 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Michigan St.
3) UGA 12-1. Loss to Alabama in CCG.
4) Cincinnati 13-0. Conf champion (G5).
________________________________________
5) Notre Dame 11-1. Loss to Cincinnati.
With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:
2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.
2021: Big 12 Champ Baylor. 11-2 with losses to Ok.St. and TCU. Also Pac 12 Champ Utah, 10-3 with losses to BYU, San Diego st, and Oregon STate. Also ACC champ Pittsburgh, 11-2 with losses to Western Michigan and Miami.
This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:
-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 32 playoff teams, only 4 of them (12%) made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame, 2021 UGA).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 4 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for PSU. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 covid year was a weird one but Notre Dame had the same number of losses as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round. Notre Dame also had 2 more wins. 2021 UGA and 2021 ND had somewhat similar resumes in that both were non-champions that lost to a team in the playoffs, but UGA had one more victory and played in a CCG unlike ND.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twice and they went undefeated or 1-loss to do so. Last year they finished with only 1 loss and still were left out.
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record. I emphasize this last point because it is by far the biggest thing people overlook or simply ignore. People always point to 2017 and 2021 as support for why a tennessee or an alabama or georgia or a whoever (in 2022) may make the playoffs while completely ignoring the fact that other P5 conferences actually exist and will have a champion.
The bottom line on making the playoffs is 1)Win your conference 2) If you don't win your conference, you need other P5 champions to have multiple losses. Simple as that.
7
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:21 am to WG_Dawg
Thank you for taking the time to put this in words. Many of us have been saying this but the noise of the masses drown it out. The SEC will only get 1 team in this year. The SEC playoffs start Saturday at 3:30 in Athens and continues at 7p in Tuscaloosa. 2 teams will be eliminated and 2 will move on.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:21 am to WG_Dawg
The SEC COULD set up a very interesting conundrum for the committee this year with the potential for 3 teams to finish 11-1. Lets assume the Georgia v Tennessee winning will win the East with a 12-0 record. That team then plays an 11-1 Alabama in the SECCG. Alabama beats the East champ, leaving all with 1 loss...each with their one loss being to another of that group of 3. You could then have 3 potential undefeated conf. champions (TCU, Clemson, OSU/Michigan). If that is the case, it would be entirely possible 1 loss Tennessee and Georgia would miss the playoff.
While we ALWAYS have these discussions in early Nov....and they always seem to work themselves out, it is an interesting thought to consider
While we ALWAYS have these discussions in early Nov....and they always seem to work themselves out, it is an interesting thought to consider
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:22 am to RunningJacket
quote:
The SEC playoffs start Saturday at 3:30 in Athens and continues at 7p in Tuscaloosa.
Is there a game this week in Tuscaloosa we aren't aware of?
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:25 am to RunningJacket
quote:
Thank you for taking the time to put this in words. Many of us have been saying this but the noise of the masses drown it ou
Definitely. It's so frustring seeing people OVER AND OVER talk about the SEC possibly getting 3 playoff teams
I know the SEC is the best and all but the playoffs aren't just the SEC invitational ha. quote:
The SEC will only get 1 team in this year
Probably, as is the case in prior years it's 100% dependent on what the other P5 champs do. There's no way to prove it, but I still believe that if OkSt hadn't choked away the Big 12 title game last year UGA is sittinbg at home.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:26 am to Alt26
quote:
The SEC COULD set up a very interesting conundrum for the committee this year with the potential for 3 teams to finish 11-1. Lets assume the Georgia v Tennessee winning will win the East with a 12-0 record. That team then plays an 11-1 Alabama in the SECCG. Alabama beats the East champ, leaving all with 1 loss...each with their one loss being to another of that group of 3. You could then have 3 potential undefeated conf. champions (TCU, Clemson, OSU/Michigan).
those other teams don't have to be undefeated. A 1-loss P5 champ is getting in the playoffs over a 1-loss SEC non-champ.
quote:
While we ALWAYS have these discussions in early Nov....and they always seem to work themselves out, it is an interesting thought to consider
AGreed. I think the committee has gotten it spot on correct every year. It's also comical to see hwat kind of gnashing of teeth people are going to do on this board tomorrow after the first rankings come out, as if tomorrow's rankings have any merit whatsoever on December ha.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:28 am to WG_Dawg
I still think a 12-1 SEC champ Alabama would have been in over a 13-0 UCLA, TCU, and/or Syracuse... but two of those teams already lost so it worked itself out like usual.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:29 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
2020 covid year was a weird one but Notre Dame had the same number of losses as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their conference title while #5 didn't win their division, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired with in the first round. Notre Dame also had 2 more wins.
Notre Dame beat Clemson without Clemson's best player and got demolished by Clemson in the ACC championship game, only to make the playoff the next game.
Notre Dame shouldn't have been in the 2020 playoffs. I'm not sure aTm should have been either, but ND was a poor choice.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:33 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
Notre Dame beat Clemson without Clemson's best player and got demolished by Clemson in the ACC championship game, only to make the playoff the next game.
irrelevant. Your resume is what it is. Should we award Texas the 2009 national title because their best player got hurt in the 1st quarter? Should we be awarded a win over florida in 2005 becauase DJ shockley didnt' play? Of course not. Notre Dame's resume included a win over a top 4 team and a loss to them. They both count.
quote:
Notre Dame shouldn't have been in the 2020 playoffs. I'm not sure aTm should have been either, but ND was a poor choice.
So who should have then? You may not like notre dame but you have to have a better option instead, and there wasn't one. If you go past aTm, the 6th ranked team was OU who went 8-2 with losses to KSu and ISu, who combined to go 13-9. ND essentially went by default.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 9:36 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:48 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
This is true, but Auburn would have if they had won the SECCG in 17 right (I think it was 17)? LSU has a similar shot this year
I think just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean there haven't been scenarios where those teams would get in. Those are the 2 that pop up in my mind but there may be others
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:53 am to Buckeye06
quote:
his is true, but Auburn would have if they had won the SECCG in 17 r
I'm aware, and you're right they would be a 100% stone cold absolute lock. But alas, they didn't. So as of now no team has.
quote:
LSU has a similar shot this year
They have a shot in the sense that if they win out and win the SEC yes they would almost surely make the playoffs. But I mean...let's be honest. That's highly unlikely.
quote:
I think just because it hasn't happened doesn't mean there haven't been scenarios where those teams would get in. Those are the 2 that pop up in my mind but there may be others
Well yeah, that's like saying "if team so and so won a few more games than they did they'd have a better chance". Obviously, that's common sense. I'm just relaying what has actually haappened up to this point.
I'll also point out that my opinions are based entirely on what's in the OP and what the committee has ACTUALLY done so far up to this point but that doens't mean things can't change with each new year. There will inevitably come a day that they do something new that they haven't don ebefore, and when that happens I'll adjust my opinions accordingly. But going back to your point, up til now we've seen that you pretty much can't have 2 losses.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 9:54 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:54 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
irrelevant. Your resume is what it is. Should we award Texas the 2009 national title because their best player got hurt in the 1st quarter? Should we be awarded a win over florida in 2005 becauase DJ shockley didnt' play? Of course not. Notre Dame's resume included a win over a top 4 team and a loss to them. They both count.
It's not irrelevant at all. Notre Dame got stomped by a full-strength Clemson the day before the playoff picks were made. The committee could see their high ranking and win against Clemson earlier in the season was nothing but a fluke, which it was.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 9:55 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:55 am to Buckeye06
quote:I don’t think They’ll put a SEC 2 loss champion LSU over a 1 loss Tennessee or UGA if Ohio state, Clemson, and TCU are undefeated. This happen a couple of years ago when Penn state won the big 10 and Ohio state went to the playoffs anyway.
LSU has a similar shot this year
Posted on 10/31/22 at 9:57 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
It's not irrelevant. Notre Dame got stomped by Clemson the day before the playoff picks were made.
Notre Dame's resume showed a win and a loss agianst clemson. That's not debatable. ND also played for their conference title and had 2 more wins than the next team.
Again, put aside yoru personal bias against notre dame and share who should have made it instead of them. The team wiht 2 less wins that didn't win their divison? Or the team that had 2 losses to mediocre teams? I agree with you in that there really wasn't a home run 4th place team that year but you have to put SOMEONE in. And ND clearly had the best resume of the teams remaining.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:11 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
-Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal or better record.
I bet an 11-1 Vols team would get in over a 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 TCU.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:12 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
It's not irrelevant at all. Notre Dame got stomped by a full-strength Clemson the day before the playoff picks were made. The committee could see their high ranking and win against Clemson earlier in the season was nothing but a fluke, which it was.
The only other option was A&M though, and they'd already lost to Bama by almost 30 points.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:14 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Again, put aside yoru personal bias against notre dame and share who should have made it instead of them.
I acknowledged I was not sure who should've gotten in over them in my original post. My point was ND got stomped the day before the rankings and still made it in due in large part to their victory over QB-less Clemson.
This post was edited on 10/31/22 at 10:16 am
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:16 am to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
quote:
The only other option was A&M though, and they'd already lost to Bama by almost 30 points.
Agreed. It was a poor pool to choose from.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:27 am to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
quote:
I bet an 11-1 Vols team would get in over a 12-1 Clemson or 12-1 TCU.
I would bet you that they won't. If that were to happen, it's literally break the mold and be something the committee has never done before. So I wouldn't predict them to do something like that until there's a precedent for it which currently there isn't.
Posted on 10/31/22 at 10:43 am to WG_Dawg
The committee is using an analytical formula thag takes into account margin of victory, scoring efficiency, strength or schedule, etc.
I don't know why people still think they are randomly coming up with playoff decisions.
I don't know why people still think they are randomly coming up with playoff decisions.
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