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Started By
Message
Yield Curve….tic, tic, tic, tic
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:16 pm
Do we see DJIA hit 20,000 again?
Opinions? Sarcasm?
Opinions? Sarcasm?
3
Posted on 11/10/22 at 4:49 pm to fatnhappy
Boom
Yes, we will have problems at some point
Brrrrrr. Print that fiat
Yes, we will have problems at some point
Brrrrrr. Print that fiat
Posted on 11/10/22 at 5:35 pm to KillTheGophers
DJIA Point and figure chart support is almost exactly 20000.
Fat inversions like this one carry a punch within 9-12 months of first signs of inversion.
Gubment has created shitetons of inflation.
NGO’s passing out free groceries in every town with long lines of grateful recipients.
Goodwill/Thrift stores are jam packed.
But, everyone is still hiring. Businesses still understaffed.
New mortgage filings fell off a cliff.
WTF is going on?
Where does this end up?
Hedge funds will own the whole shebang?
Just not the crypto heavy dopes.
Fat inversions like this one carry a punch within 9-12 months of first signs of inversion.
Gubment has created shitetons of inflation.
NGO’s passing out free groceries in every town with long lines of grateful recipients.
Goodwill/Thrift stores are jam packed.
But, everyone is still hiring. Businesses still understaffed.
New mortgage filings fell off a cliff.
WTF is going on?
Where does this end up?
Hedge funds will own the whole shebang?
Just not the crypto heavy dopes.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 5:42 pm to fatnhappy
Days like today are why most people lose at trying to time the market. You just never know when the breakouts are going to be. Combine that with rarely perfectly timing the top, and you end up with most people in a position that they would have been better off buying through the trough.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 5:51 pm to Joshjrn
Yep.
When it hits the fan it’ll look like 1931 misery.
Everyone now is a straight arse speculator.
People jumping off bridges and crap.
The buying opportunity signal triggered as soon as S&WB gets compelled to scrape the day traders off Poydras St. curbs.
Bloody gutters.
When it hits the fan it’ll look like 1931 misery.
Everyone now is a straight arse speculator.
People jumping off bridges and crap.
The buying opportunity signal triggered as soon as S&WB gets compelled to scrape the day traders off Poydras St. curbs.
Bloody gutters.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:19 pm to fatnhappy
Based on a telephone conversation I had with you a few months ago, I've had that 19-21 bottom in my mind. And it's the anecdotal evidence that I see from working class people that use my services (I leave the big boy economic stuff to you smart guys) is even more dire and pessimistic than the sub-prime stuff back in the day. Working stiffs are getting crushed. And yet the NASDAQ and many tech stocks based on consumer spending are up 7.5%. Where is this unbridled optimism coming from? Who is buying this high?
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:36 pm to Lsupimp
Frigging maniacs.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:40 pm to Lsupimp
quote:
And yet the NASDAQ and many tech stocks based on consumer spending are up 7.5%. Where is this unbridled optimism coming from? Who is buying this high?
Tech stocks are down massively ytd. Tf are you talking about?
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:41 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Still has another 30% to go.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 6:43 pm to fatnhappy
Pimp, you are referring to todays market performance? Amirite?.
Posted on 11/10/22 at 7:03 pm to Joshjrn
You can't time the market and I am positive that the market will fall 1,000 points in 1 day again soon. Too much volatility out there. Who knows where the bottom is.
This post was edited on 11/10/22 at 7:04 pm
Posted on 11/10/22 at 7:30 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Talking about today. Talking about the aforementioned yield curve. Talking about downward pressure and the consumer zeitgeist. It doesn’t feel a bit ominous to you?
Posted on 11/10/22 at 9:46 pm to fatnhappy
It took 3 years for the market to bottom in the 2000 crash. Days like today will happen as we continue lower
Posted on 11/11/22 at 1:17 am to jlu03
You’re exactly right.
Go look all through history at bear markets. It’s a process.
-Initial leg down off the highs in equities
- yield curve inverts (screaming recession and this one has screamed SEVERE recession 9-18 months out from initial inversion)
-huge, super powerful rally back up to test highs or put in a lower high in equities
-yield curve starts to flatten and then steepen
-the mother of all down legs (the “storm” Jamie Dimon has warned about)
Go look all through history at bear markets. It’s a process.
-Initial leg down off the highs in equities
- yield curve inverts (screaming recession and this one has screamed SEVERE recession 9-18 months out from initial inversion)
-huge, super powerful rally back up to test highs or put in a lower high in equities
-yield curve starts to flatten and then steepen
-the mother of all down legs (the “storm” Jamie Dimon has warned about)
Posted on 11/11/22 at 8:16 am to Hussss
With all this pessimism and anxiety, I don't know how some of you sleep at night.
Assuming you're all in cash, correct?
Assuming you're all in cash, correct?
Posted on 11/11/22 at 8:45 am to Niner
quote:
Assuming you're all in cash, correct?
I’m convinced everyone is 100% equities so they can bitch about the system.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 11:03 am to Niner
quote:
Assuming you're all in cash, correct?
While I appreciate people offering their opinions (and dire predictions) on here, I also find it interesting that they very seldom mention how they’re positioned to deal with what they’re predicting. Are they going to cash, sitting on T-bills, hedging with options???
If I predict a super cold & snowy winter, I’ll be glad to tell you that I’m buying extra hay for the horses and firewood for the fireplaces.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 1:43 pm to Jag_Warrior
Sqqq and cash and bonds.
Options are tough because you have to have a bit of timing to it or day trade and monitor constantly moves
Options are tough because you have to have a bit of timing to it or day trade and monitor constantly moves
Posted on 11/11/22 at 1:55 pm to jimjackandjose
quote:
Sqqq and cash and bonds.
Thanks for stepping up. quote:
Options are tough because you have to have a bit of timing to it or day trade and monitor constantly moves
Not so much. It kind of depends on whether you’re trying to construct directional or neutral delta positions. I don’t constantly monitor anything other than weekly earnings plays.
Posted on 11/11/22 at 2:38 pm to jimjackandjose
what does this mean?
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