Will we see $200 oil in the next 3 years and how confident

Are You Ready for $300 Oil

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How high do you think the price of oil will go from here?

We will see $300 a barrel — or roughly $250 in today's dollars — because oil supply will be so short. If you want that oil, that's what you will have to pay for it. That will be in 2015, after the peak of oil [supply]. But even earlier, around 2010, more than 50% of the non-OPEC world will have peaked in its production of oil so the dependence on OPEC will become extreme. That will give OPEC a chance, I'm afraid, to lift prices rather more quickly on us than they are doing today.

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jersey, so at no point in 3 years do you expect to see $200 oil ?


also, the basics of this current oil decline is b/c of huge supply ? and opecs refusal to cut production ? right ?

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We will see sub $50 oil.

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I never thought i'd see it get this close to $100 again. I assumed it was going to bottom out in the 110-120 range then head back up. Who knows now, but I think $80 will be extremely hard to break through. If Obama wins I think oil rallies this winter. Less domestic supply, a more belligerent Russia and China.....

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I think our election will be irrelevant to the price of oil.

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To a degree, yes. It's probably already factored into the price today.

Less U.S. Oil Demand LINK ][LINK], Less miles driven LINK ][LINK], Less miles driven again LINK ][LINK].

I think people focus on the high number and miss the point that the demand destruction has been occurring over a long time. $100 oil is a lot better than $140, but its still $100. As I write this OPEC just cut some supply.

Indeed. This site is good for oil related junk, if anyone is interested.

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It was trading hype.

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Right, the increase in price was from the anticipation of demand rising in India and China.

That is exactly right about the $50 oil because we will all be using Natural gas in our vehicles I would hope. Then our farmers can start selling corn to the Arabs for $100 bushel unless they learn how survive drinking the stuff!!

If you really believe in either $50 or $300 (or anything else, for that matter) just head over to the oil market and bet on a contract that expires in three years.

Personally, I'd be glad to cover a bet that deviates significantly from the market price. Just shoot me an email and hand me your money - I'll just hedge the other way in the market. With any luck, we'll both win, but I won't need luck (snicker).