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Message
re: Will the Bitcoin selling start accelerating?
Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:32 am to go ta hell ole miss
Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:32 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
As with many things, when the masses start thinking it is time to buy, it’s usually a top. When the masses start thinking selling will accelerate, the bottom is probably in. I have no way to value BTC because there is no business model and the thesis seems to change. It is certainly not a hedge on inflation, not a storer of value and even after mainstream acceptance, it is subject to 50% declines over six months periods. All that to say, I decided to gamble and buy at $63k. If it falls to $50k I’ll buy more. If it goes below $35k, I’ll be like emu farmers of the 1980s and MMM investors is 1990. I’ve spent money on worse things.
Agree with most of this. I don't see a reliable way to value it. I bought a small amount of ibit when btc was around 90k. May never see a profit, but not sweating it. Went from 0% stake to less than 1/2 of 1%.
I have heard your first comment many times, but have made a lot of money doing the opposite.
quote:
As with many things, when the masses start thinking it is time to buy, it’s usually a top.
I seldom have gotten in on the ground floor of big winners. I have made a lot of money by jumping in to high risers after they have proven themselves. One doesn't have to outsmart the market to do well. I got in to the majority of my individual stock winners after they were already clearly winners. I am up on Nvda over 1000%, but this is small relative to what it is up for the past 10 years. Same story for Appl, Goog, Amzn, Wmt, ... Many years ago, it was Qcom, Amat, Wmt. I tell my kids they don't need to be expert stock pickers to make money. I am a bona-fide "coat-tail chaser" as an investor.
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Posted on 2/6/26 at 9:38 am to T1gerNate
Bitcoin was a good investment early on along with a few other cryptocurrencies that appeared to have some utility
Turns out they don’t. It’s not secure for anonymous transactions and the costs of a transaction make regular purchases not worth it. It’s not feasible in its current state as a currency alternative for daily expenditures.
If you’re looking to jump into bitcoin now you’ve missed your chance, you’ll likely be holding the bag. Maybe you can time it to catch a dead cat bounce but that’s always risky
Turns out they don’t. It’s not secure for anonymous transactions and the costs of a transaction make regular purchases not worth it. It’s not feasible in its current state as a currency alternative for daily expenditures.
If you’re looking to jump into bitcoin now you’ve missed your chance, you’ll likely be holding the bag. Maybe you can time it to catch a dead cat bounce but that’s always risky
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:09 am to Pendulum
quote:All you're describing is momentum trading a meme stock.
I was reading this thread yesterday evening right after work, and scrolled past just one too many "going to zero" posts and antibtc knights taking victory laps; it peaked out in this thread almost exactly as btc bottomed at 60k and violently bounced of 60k on the dot. Kept going to the chart and then back to this thread for another victory post and i couldnt stop myself, I bought some btc at 62k and just sold it for a nice 7-8%. I already have alot and I havent sold anything I owned before yesterday.
This board is an amazing anti-sentiment indicator, you can find bottoms on any asset in real time. By the time you read any sentiment here in concentrated volume, its time to take the other side of the trade.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:17 am to Big Scrub TX
Take a massive short btc position and post pics. I would respect the hell out of it.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:27 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Probably in the mid-to high hundreds of dollars as an industrial metal.
If you absorbed all the bullion (not to mention jewelry) into industrial applications somehow, it would not be sniffing a price of mid-to-high hundreds of dollars. To take up that kind of volume, it would have to displace copper, silver, nickel and aluminum in applications, so it would have to be cost competitive with those metals.
quote:
Actual scarcity of something that cannot be reproduced.
But no intrinsic value.
quote:
A printing press and the most powerful military in the history of civilization.
But no intrinsic value.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:29 am to beaverfever
quote:I've been long since 2013, just not in crazy size. call it 1% of net worth. Ditto gold.
Take a massive short btc position and post pics. I would respect the hell out of it.
However, I don't see hardly any fundamental case for either and I won't pretend there is one.
I've been a much harsher critic of MSTR and rightfully so.
Posted on 2/6/26 at 10:48 am to Big Scrub TX
I don't have a problem with your assessment.
My point wasn't that BTC is foolproof long term and everyone should buy. It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
People were typing things like "best to just cut your losses, it's going to zero one way or another" at the absolute bottom almost exactly of an insane intraday move. If anyone took that post to heart, they lost money vs waiting like an hour.
Whenever I see clear examples of this on money talk, I like to point it out. Maybe someone will lose less money in the future on a different crash with that seedling in their head.
I mean, I'm pretty much just reposting one of the most famous sayings in investing coined by Buffet, sue me.
For ref: I had about 7% of my total investible wealth in BTC at EOY 2025. It's less now
However, I only had one sell order on BTC this year, the one I mentioned this morning. It seemed pretty obvious to me, yesterday was not the day to sell. When I see an intraday chart like that, I'm thinking buy or nothing.
My point wasn't that BTC is foolproof long term and everyone should buy. It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
People were typing things like "best to just cut your losses, it's going to zero one way or another" at the absolute bottom almost exactly of an insane intraday move. If anyone took that post to heart, they lost money vs waiting like an hour.
Whenever I see clear examples of this on money talk, I like to point it out. Maybe someone will lose less money in the future on a different crash with that seedling in their head.
I mean, I'm pretty much just reposting one of the most famous sayings in investing coined by Buffet, sue me.
For ref: I had about 7% of my total investible wealth in BTC at EOY 2025. It's less now
However, I only had one sell order on BTC this year, the one I mentioned this morning. It seemed pretty obvious to me, yesterday was not the day to sell. When I see an intraday chart like that, I'm thinking buy or nothing.This post was edited on 2/6/26 at 11:04 am
Posted on 2/6/26 at 11:37 am to Pendulum
quote:Agreed. And I, for one, was not making any short-term recommendations.
It was just pointing out how no one should take advice to heart from this thread and base any short term decision making on panic or anti-btc knight dunking, and that money talk overall is not a good place to make short term decisions on.
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