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re: Which airlines will survive the pandemic insanity?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:55 am to Paul Allen
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:55 am to Paul Allen
I was surprised at how busy ATL was flying through a few weeks ago. I think with airline safety measures people are seeing that the risk is probably higher contracting in a restaurant vs airplane.
0
Posted on 9/15/20 at 8:37 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Yeah but Zoom, WebEx and MS Teams weren’t around back then and we didn’t go through a global health pandemic in 2008.
Effective video meeting business software has been around well over a decade. Those options, especially zoom, helped bring video conferencing to small business and personal/free use.
Are you under 30 by any chance?
This post was edited on 9/15/20 at 8:39 am
Posted on 9/15/20 at 8:39 am to Auburn1968
AAL had a debt to asset ratio of over 100% when the pandemic began. That's why I avoided them.
I bought DAL, LUV, and ALK. Airline demand isn't going away, so you just need the ones that will be able to borrow money at a favorable rate. They'll buy out AAL and possibly UAL.
I bought DAL, LUV, and ALK. Airline demand isn't going away, so you just need the ones that will be able to borrow money at a favorable rate. They'll buy out AAL and possibly UAL.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:15 am to djrunner
quote:
Well the needle is moving on just the talk of it so I have to disagree. To be honest, I think business travel will be 70% of where it was by 2nd quarter 21' unless we have another covid scare.
I won’t be disappointed if I’m wrong. I have a small position in JBLU that I’ve had for years and I’d like to see travel recover as much as anyone. But am I willing to devote new money on the long equity side to airlines, based on what I see right now? No, can’t say that I am. I feel that there are other, less problematic areas, with more upside potential and less risk, than airlines, cruise lines, etc. The risk vs. reward just isn’t there for me.
But good luck to those willing to take the plunge on the long side.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 9:21 am to Jag_Warrior
What are you guys thoughts on ETF's? I bought into one called JETS in late March, just under $12, it has hovered around $18 for a bit now. Obviously it is the airline industry. Precovid has a 5 year history in the mid $30's. I am still good with holding a while longer. But I am an absolute novice on these type things.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 10:11 am to Jag_Warrior
I’m not touching cruise lines. You’re comparing business travel to leisure cruises, it’s not at all the same.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:09 am to djrunner
quote:
I’m not touching cruise lines. You’re comparing business travel to leisure cruises, it’s not at all the same.
No comparison is being made. I'm just listing two sub-sectors within travel that I'm not willing to take long equity positions in at this point in time, or the near future. I could have also listed dining and casinos. Again, investments on the long equity side.
I invest in, but don't generally trade stocks (or ETFs). So it's what I'd invest in longer term that will make me the most money for a given amount of risk. I trade options (primarily an options seller). I do, and have, traded options (bullish, bearish or neutral) on airlines, casinos, dining and other areas where I wouldn't make long equity investments. But my options trading is based strictly on the IV rank of the underlying giving me a statistical edge, making the risk vs. reward favorable. If some airline (or cruise line) hits a 51% IV rank, I'll likely establish an options position, but I wouldn't look to buy the stock. That's where I'm coming from.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 11:22 am to notsince98
quote:
Are you under 30 by any chance?
What does age have to do with an airline and business travel thread?
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:30 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
What does age have to do with an airline and business travel thread?
Because only a younger person would not have seen this exact same song and dance before.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 2:46 pm to notsince98
Neat
Posted on 9/15/20 at 6:16 pm to LSUfan20005
quote:
It’s not just what your company allows, it’s also the customer(s). I think my company would fire up critical travel, but none of our customers are allowing in-person meetings
What kind of business and where? What clients aren’t allowing face to face?
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