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Started By
Message
re: Which airlines will survive the pandemic insanity?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 9:10 am to Auburn1968
Posted on 9/13/20 at 9:10 am to Auburn1968
Business travel will change significantly, just not sure how much.
Same with commercial office space.
Same with commercial office space.
1
Posted on 9/13/20 at 9:25 am to KillTheGophers
It’s not just what your company allows, it’s also the customer(s). I think my company would fire up critical travel, but none of our customers are allowing in-person meetings.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:49 am to kywildcatfanone
quote:
Business travel will change significantly
As in how companies do it or how often companies allow employees to travel keeping budgetary constraints in mind?
Posted on 9/13/20 at 10:51 am to Paul Allen
Business travel will resume pretty bigly but I’m not sure it’ll ever be the same as it was given the ease of zoom meetings. There’s just something about doing things in person that some meetings just can’t be done online.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 11:10 am to MrJimBeam
I agree. I just wonder about all these vehicle fleet programs that so many salespeople use since they were traveling 20,000 plus miles a year. I’m wondering if company vehicles are going to be a thing of the past.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:32 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Well, it’s something that I think every investor should consider. I think the days of in person sales meetings and conferences could be a thing of the past. This would also decimate large convention cities like Orlando, Vegas and New Orleans.
I used to make a few business trips on Acela from NYC down to Wilmington. Not an airline, but since those were primarily information exchange and planning meetings, they always ate up a day. The last few years they only take up an hour or two via Internet even pre-Zoom. It works fine and all of the information is recorded without taking notes.
Conversely, for conventions with new products and live demonstrations, I want to see the actual thing, meet people I wouldn't meet otherwise in the field and maybe have food and libation. Sometimes you hear the most revealing insights over a few drinks.
The vaccines coming soon will take away the fear for most people.
This post was edited on 9/13/20 at 12:39 pm
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:35 pm to jcaz
quote:
I can’t believe I was months away from investing tens of thousands into an airline pilot career. Dodged a bullet.
I suspect that a lot of late boomer pilots are retiring these days. My nephew wants to be a commercial pilot.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:44 pm to Auburn1968
quote:everyone knows drinks over Zoom is the bees knees
Sometimes you hear the most revealing insights over a few drinks
Posted on 9/13/20 at 12:45 pm to jimbeam
quote:
everyone knows drinks over Zoom is the bees knees
It's the toasting that leaves marks on my monitor!
Posted on 9/13/20 at 1:31 pm to jcaz
quote:
I can’t believe I was months away from investing tens of thousands into an airline pilot career. Dodged a bullet.
FedEx and UPS are still hiring.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 2:21 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
The vaccines coming soon will take away the fear for most people.
I sure hope so. Would rather see business travel resume to near pre Covid levels in 2021 and 2022 than some doom and gloom
10 -15 year predictions.
Posted on 9/13/20 at 6:30 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
The vaccines coming soon will take away the fear for most people.
I wonder how true that is though? I’m not some sort of Q-Anon, anti-vaxxer type by any means. But having gotten a flu shot every year for the past 30 years or so, and still being struck down with bad cases of the flu for the past two years in a row, whatever questionable vaccine they rush to market over the next couple of months won’t influence any decision that I make to fly. Polls seem to indicate that many others feel the same way.
Just me... just sayin’.
BTW: go JBLU! Hang in there baby!
Posted on 9/14/20 at 9:22 am to Jag_Warrior
Flu shots are always a crap shoot based on educated guesses because the flu viruses are always mutating. However, while you may get the flu after a shot, it has a very good track record at reducing the severity and keeping you from dying. Most the people who die from flu are those who didn't get the shot.
Flu immunities can also have long term residual effects. An interesting thing was revealed in the Spanish flu which killed millions. Old people died at a lower rate because they had experienced another flu that was similar in the late 1800's that younger people where never exposed to. The immunity effects were still there for 1917-1919.
I'm extremely optimistic on a vaccine coming very soon. There are something like 200 candidates in the works with a few in the later part of phase three testing. Phase three is final scientific stage of testing -- the rest is FDA bureaucracy.
Flu immunities can also have long term residual effects. An interesting thing was revealed in the Spanish flu which killed millions. Old people died at a lower rate because they had experienced another flu that was similar in the late 1800's that younger people where never exposed to. The immunity effects were still there for 1917-1919.
I'm extremely optimistic on a vaccine coming very soon. There are something like 200 candidates in the works with a few in the later part of phase three testing. Phase three is final scientific stage of testing -- the rest is FDA bureaucracy.
This post was edited on 9/14/20 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 9/14/20 at 2:10 pm to Auburn1968
quote:
Am I missing something?
You're missing the ability of the government to create bailouts for failing companies.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 2:48 pm to seawolf06
That's almost as good as governments ability to kill businesses with one-size-fits-all lockdowns.
Posted on 9/14/20 at 4:02 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Business travel is the key. Once that gets back to pre Covid levels airlines will be just fine. The problem with that is, zoom and other web based platforms according to some experts are going to revolutionize the business meeting and airfare/hotel is going to be a thing of the past. I guess we’ll see.
This same prediction happened about 10-12 years ago. Everything was going to go virtual meetings with video chat and no more business travel.
Everyone learned that customer service matters most and there is no getting around the benefits of face to face contact with valuable customers.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 12:38 am to notsince98
quote:
This same prediction happened about 10-12 years ago.
Yeah but Zoom, WebEx and MS Teams weren’t around back then and we didn’t go through a global health pandemic in 2008.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:16 am to Auburn1968
I appreciate that. I really do. But again, referring back to this:
In order for even the most effective vaccine to have a widespread benefit, a majority of people have to believe in it and get vaccinated ASAP. But sadly, the Covid pandemic has become incredibly politicized, especially in the U.S. On average, roughly half of Americans take a flu shot. The average vaccine effectiveness for flu vaccines is 40%. Polls indicate that 2/3 of people are saying that they will NOT take a Covid vaccine as soon as it becomes available, and about 1/4 say that they will NEVER take it. But about half say that they’ll take it once others have been vaccinated and they don’t hear about adverse effects.
So all that to say, I don’t see any initial drug launch having a needle moving effect on air travel, certainly not for older travelers or those in more vulnerable populations. But yes, eventually I think that it will. Just not a situation where the switch is flipped to the on position all of a sudden.
quote:
The vaccines coming soon will take away the fear for most people.
In order for even the most effective vaccine to have a widespread benefit, a majority of people have to believe in it and get vaccinated ASAP. But sadly, the Covid pandemic has become incredibly politicized, especially in the U.S. On average, roughly half of Americans take a flu shot. The average vaccine effectiveness for flu vaccines is 40%. Polls indicate that 2/3 of people are saying that they will NOT take a Covid vaccine as soon as it becomes available, and about 1/4 say that they will NEVER take it. But about half say that they’ll take it once others have been vaccinated and they don’t hear about adverse effects.
So all that to say, I don’t see any initial drug launch having a needle moving effect on air travel, certainly not for older travelers or those in more vulnerable populations. But yes, eventually I think that it will. Just not a situation where the switch is flipped to the on position all of a sudden.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:21 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Yeah but Zoom, WebEx and MS Teams weren’t around back then and we didn’t go through a global health pandemic in 2008.
Every time a new technology comes out people say that business travel will stop. I remember after 9/11 everyone said everything would be done via conferencing but when you see your competitor getting business because they are traveling and meeting face to face you change philosophy quickly. It might not get back all the way to where it was but it will get close and there will probably be less competition.
Posted on 9/15/20 at 7:47 am to Jag_Warrior
quote:
So all that to say, I don’t see any initial drug launch having a needle moving effect on air travel, certainly not for older travelers or those in more vulnerable populations. But yes, eventually I think that it will. Just not a situation where the switch is flipped to the on position all of a sudden.
Well the needle is moving on just the talk of it so I have to disagree. To be honest, I think business travel will be 70% of where it was by 2nd quarter 21' unless we have another covid scare.
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