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re: US CPI data release today
Posted on 2/14/23 at 12:32 pm to Thundercles
Posted on 2/14/23 at 12:32 pm to Thundercles
If they REALLY cared about getting inflation down then they would contract the money supply.
But we know they don’t and they won’t.
Remember: the “money” system is run by haters and destroyers. The same exact haters that are pushing “diversity, equity, inclusion.” Ironic, eh? When these ilk or their media mouthpieces speak, immediately think OPPOSITE.
Evil hates.
Evil destroys.
Love nurtures and loves.
Love builds.
Godspeed
But we know they don’t and they won’t.
Remember: the “money” system is run by haters and destroyers. The same exact haters that are pushing “diversity, equity, inclusion.” Ironic, eh? When these ilk or their media mouthpieces speak, immediately think OPPOSITE.
Evil hates.
Evil destroys.
Love nurtures and loves.
Love builds.
Godspeed
This post was edited on 2/14/23 at 1:16 pm
1
Posted on 2/14/23 at 2:50 pm to Hussss
quote:Well M2 peaked at $21.7397 trillion in March and was down 2.5% in December to $21.2074 trillion, which appears to be the largest contraction since the data series began in 1959, at least in absolute terms but maybe relative as well.
If they REALLY cared about getting inflation down then they would contract the money supply.
Fred Data on M2
Posted on 2/14/23 at 3:03 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
Well M2 peaked at $21.7397 trillion in March and was down 2.5% in December to $21.2074 trillion, which appears to be the largest contraction since the data series began in 1959
It's taken almost a year to drop 2.5% but it needs to drop at least another 15% on top of that to be in line with where it would have been without COVID. It will be interesting to see how much that drop rate increases with higher hanging around for a while.
Posted on 2/14/23 at 9:10 pm to Bard
quote:I was just trying to do this quickly on my phone, but by math, using the 60 year growth trend pre-covid, M2 would need to contract by about 5% by the end of the year to be on trend. I think a 15% contraction would probably set us in a deflationary recession, but I think 5% is a more reasonable contraction for a "soft landing," or at least a "softer" one.
It's taken almost a year to drop 2.5% but it needs to drop at least another 15% on top of that to be in line with where it would have been without COVID.
Posted on 2/15/23 at 5:43 am to slackster
quote:
It’s way too early to judge the January rate hike. The print today had nothing to do with that decision.
Ha! No kidding. Of course it is too early to see the impact of rate hike that happened two weeks ago. It is pretty easy to see what the results will be based on prior actions. I I am judging the moves from six months ago that clearly were not enough. And now he is going down to .25, which is not going to be enough when we get data in six months. The way things are going, rate hikes are going to have to be prolonged or he’s actually going to have to go back up, which is going to have an even worse impact on the market than the perceived short term benefit of dropping to .25 with the most recent move. Powell and the Fed got us into this crap by being the only people on the planet to think inflation was transitory for WAY longer than anyone else.. Now, he’s too scared to do what is necessary and raise rates with sufficient force to kill inflation. He now has us in a quagmire of high rates and continuing inflation. The last time inflation was this hot, the Fed rate was closer to 17 to kill inflation quickly. Powell is scared to make anything close to 1/3 of that.
They are so scared to hurt the stock market they are missing the major current issue, which is price volatility. Hey need to get price volatility down. With price volatility comes an inability to gauge earnings, production costs and margins. Thus, those are going to get passed on by higher prices or delayed investments, neither of which are good for the economy or businesses in the long run.
Everyone is so scared of short term pain in the market (especially the Fed), including investors (many on this board as I think you previously said people had lost their dang minds thinking mortgage rates would get to 7-8%). We are nowhere near historical P/Es for a bear market to end (typically 15-16/1). We are actually at higher end P/Es, with an economy that has high volatility, high inflation, wages that are already beginning to creep back up and very low unemployment. Powell is too worried about the market to actually fix the problem he created in the first place by being so obtuse. He has us in a high volatility, low liquidity, high inflation economy that is not good for long term growth or business investment.
This post was edited on 2/15/23 at 6:41 am
Posted on 2/15/23 at 7:09 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
They are so scared to hurt the stock market
I don't agree with this point. I think they have been trying to deflate the market.
The market just doesn't want to listen.
The "don't fight the Fed" language used to rationalize the escalation of value from March 2020 onward should have lead to values decreasing from November 2021 onward if the Fed actions were really determinative of market valuations.
Posted on 2/15/23 at 7:51 am to molsusports
quote:
The market just doesn't want to listen.
+1
Posted on 2/15/23 at 9:02 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
They are so scared to hurt the stock market they are missing the major current issue
The Fed only cares about the money center banks and the bond market.
That’s it.
Posted on 2/15/23 at 2:37 pm to molsusports
quote:
The "don't fight the Fed" language used to rationalize the escalation of value from March 2020 onward should have lead to values decreasing from November 2021 onward if the Fed actions were really determinative of market valuations.
Where have you been?
The Nasdaq - home to most of the overvalued stocks - is down 25% since 11/21. It was down over 35% at peak longer term rates back in October.
Don’t fight the Fed is still alive and well.
Posted on 2/15/23 at 5:44 pm to slackster
quote:
Don’t fight the Fed is still alive and well.
We have been enjoying a big technical based rally for the last five months while the fed continues to hike.
Posted on 2/15/23 at 7:42 pm to molsusports
quote:
The market just doesn't want to listen.
Every bearish sounding poster in this thread is still contributing 10%+ bi-monthly to their long mega cap fund with a 5% match from their employer. The market isn’t what it used to be and the government reaction has adapted as well when things go bad.
Posted on 2/16/23 at 9:02 am to Hussss
quote:
The Fed only cares about the money center banks and the bond market. That’s it.
You are kidding yourself if you really believe that garbage you just typed. No fed wants to be the one that has the market tank on their watch.. If that is true, though, then this fed is failing miserably. Inflation is still coming in hotter than expected with all the data we have seen this week, yet the fed decided it was time to state pulling back on cuts. This administration spends and gives entitlements at a rate never seen before and this fed unwilling to do what is necessary to get inflation under control in these circumstances. Price volatility is crippling business right now and causing everyone to tighten (cut spending on future projects and layoffs). We should be coming out of this mess right now (or never been in it to begin with), but all data seems to suggest we are still firmly entrenched in an inflation uptick.
Posted on 2/16/23 at 9:06 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
You are kidding yourself if you really believe that garbage you just typed.
Oh yeah?
How about I lay it out for you in simple layman’s terms: EVERYONE is turning on the Fed. Even Steve LIESman on CNBC.
Here’s the deal: the Fed is going to be the fall guy for the complete shitstorm en route.
Your new master(s) will be the World Bank, IMF, UN and WEF.
Full stop.
Posted on 2/16/23 at 9:12 am to Hussss
quote:
How about I lay it out for you in simple layman’s terms: EVERYONE is turning on the Fed. Even Steve LIESman on CNBC.
As well they should be. Are you praising the fed?
You did not even mention unemployment and wage growth, which is a huge component of what the fed cares about and they are losing that battle, too.
The markets want to go higher and everyone is up 25-40% right now, so I am fine with tbe market moves. The economy is what is concerning, though. Six months from now we are going to be worse off than we are today. If Powell (and admittedly the government with out o control spending) had been doing his job effectively that would not be the case.
Posted on 2/16/23 at 9:17 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
the fed cares about and they are losing that battle, too.
I’ve been saying since 2018 that the Fed will lose control and the confidence in central bank put(s) would vanish into the collapse.
This will be the bursting of the “faith in the Fed” bubble.
It’s taking much longer to play out than I originally thought but Covid was their spark to finish their business of a true global transformation.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 11:53 am to I Love Bama
Podcast discussion about Fed data especially including employment numbers being called into question
Stephanie Pomboy commentary
Stephanie Pomboy commentary
Posted on 2/22/23 at 12:34 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
quote:
The Fed only cares about the money center banks and the bond market. That’s it.
You are kidding yourself if you really believe that garbage you just typed
You should re-evaluate this opinion because you're projecting extremely hard. What does the Fed react to?
Posted on 2/22/23 at 1:28 pm to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
The markets want to go higher and everyone is up 25-40% right now, so I am fine with tbe market moves. The economy is what is concerning, though. Six months from now we are going to be worse off than we are today. If Powell (and admittedly the government with out o control spending) had been doing his job effectively that would not be the case.
I've said this in other threads, but I think it bears repeating in response to this.
JP & Co were fricking laaaaaaaate to the game on Inflation (*laughs transitorally*) but since they've shown up they've stuck to their gameplan. Whether their gameplan of "OHMYGODPLEASELETUSHAVEASOFTLANDING!!1" is going to work is another topic (hint: it won't, but at least they're looking in the right direction).
While this is going on, the administration and Congress have been keeping Inflation sticky by continuing with irresponsible levels of spending as well as fricking over our primary energy sector (O&G). Expensive energy does not magically equate to cheaper products.
The Fed is addressing the currency devaluation in the wake of PPP and stimmy checks, but they can do only so much when the actions of the administration and Congress are working against them.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 1:35 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
I was just trying to do this quickly on my phone, but by math, using the 60 year growth trend pre-covid, M2 would need to contract by about 5% by the end of the year to be on trend. I think a 15% contraction would probably set us in a deflationary recession, but I think 5% is a more reasonable contraction for a "soft landing," or at least a "softer" one.
I was using the FRED chart and just extrapolating where we are from where we likely would have been if growth had remained constant (based on the graph).
quote:
deflationary recession
Considering how much inflation we've had over such a short period; I don't think we can get through this without some deflation.
Posted on 2/22/23 at 2:04 pm to Bard
quote:
While this is going on, the administration and Congress have been keeping Inflation sticky by continuing with irresponsible levels of spending as well as fricking over our primary energy sector (O&G). Expensive energy does not magically equate to cheaper products.
The Fed is addressing the currency devaluation in the wake of PPP and stimmy checks, but they can do only so much when the actions of the administration and Congress are working against them.
Kige
This is most of the problem IMO. We have inflation and debt. The solution is not government stimulus
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