re: Unemployment numbers at a 50 year low but average person does not favor economy

Employment data doesn't mean much. 80% could be making minimum wage and not meeting ends.

Taking out the top 5%, what is the average income?

Gap between top 5% and the rest is massive.

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Show your work.

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Uh, Google the Birth/Death adjustment.

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While the yield curve isn't a driver nor is it a true predictor of recession, it's a representation of how investors see the upcoming economy. With that said, it's been accurate enough to be mistaken for a predictor. Currently we are in a period of inversion that we haven't seen since the economic woes of the late 70s/early 80s (based on range of inversion combined with time length).

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Oh I’m well aware, but it’s also good to remember there is about a 1/6 chance of a recession in any given year. They’re a common thing, and the bond market very clearly thinks one is coming sooner rather than later, but alot of people thought we’d already be in one and here we are.

They’re manipulating the data. Shadow stats has a lot of info on changes made in how unemployment, CPI, etc. have been changed over time.

For some reason I can’t get the link to work but just Google Shadow Stats Unemployment.

Thanks for that informative post.

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Currently we are in a period of inversion that we haven't seen since the economic woes of the late 70s/early 80s (based on range of inversion combined with time length).

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