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Started By
Message
The "SuperApp" of SE Asia - GRAB
Posted on 9/10/26 at 8:51 pm
Posted on 9/10/26 at 8:51 pm
- Ride hailing company who beat UBER at their own game due to geographical expertise.
- Delivery service food, parcels, etc.
- Grocery store owner
- Expanding fintech segment projected to be profitable end of 2026.
It’s just too cheap.
I had to buy LEAPS.
I chose December 2028 at $2, $3, and $5 strikes.
I may also add June 2027 $5s as a short term trade. They’re going for .20
The biggest problem with this stock is its location. It’s in SE Asia.
Most people never clicked on the thread for that reason, and that’s ok.
But it’s TOO cheap.
It’s a $3 stock trading just below 12bn market cap. So shares outstanding are just shy of 4bn.
But they’re cash flow positive and have an active share buyback program of up to .75bn dollars in stock.
They are Uber, DoorDash, and fintech in one app. In 8 South Asian countries.
They have made some smart acquisitions and continue to expand.
Yes the ceo likes to sell about 400k shares every month, but when he still owns 75mm and the daily float is 40-50 million, it’s really not that big of a deal.
I like the tone of their recent earnings call. In 2022, they projected positive ebitda from their fintech arm by 2H of 2026. They just reiterated.
Thats good management.
The price of oil and weak currency are the main problems for multiple compression right now. But you get it at 1.75x EV/sales as a result. Uber trades at 6x and it’s considered cheap.
Oh yeah…
$1.23 of the $3/share is CASH.
That’s right. The actual business, which just raised 2026 revenue to 4.1 billion is currently being valued at $1.77/share, OR 4.9 billion.
1.2 p/s on a forward basis.
.57 PEG
2028 projects 1.2bn in FCF
It’s SOUND.
Uber owns 539 million shares, or 13% of the company. Toyota owns another 222 million.
Can you take a slow grind down to 2.50 if the war continues? High gas is the biggest headwind.
But we’re the war to end, it’s probably 3.50 immediately.
—————————
Claude gives it an extremely favorable risk/reward score at this multiple.
74/100:
Why not higher: Thailand is a real moat warning. FX and fuel are structural. AV creates near-term investment overhang. Eight regulatory relationships is genuine tail risk.
Why not lower: 1.75x EV/Sales, 0.57 PEG, 54% EBITDA growth, $750M buyback, and a major shareholder not selling — all at a 52-week low — almost never appear together. The $5.4B net cash position sets a genuine equity floor.
AV optionality is priced at zero. Southeast Asian demographics, urbanization, and financial services under-penetration are decade-long tailwinds.
Asymmetric setup with real but non-fatal risks.
———————
RSI is in the 20s now.
I like the low IV calls and I’m going to give patience a try here.
Why am I not just buying more NBIS or OUST?
Honestly, I like to have a few names outside of AI hardware and the cheap LEAPS present a decent chance at 3-4x within 12-18 months.
25 out of 25 analysts say “buy”
Avg PT of $5.86
- Delivery service food, parcels, etc.
- Grocery store owner
- Expanding fintech segment projected to be profitable end of 2026.
It’s just too cheap.
I had to buy LEAPS.
I chose December 2028 at $2, $3, and $5 strikes.
I may also add June 2027 $5s as a short term trade. They’re going for .20
The biggest problem with this stock is its location. It’s in SE Asia.
Most people never clicked on the thread for that reason, and that’s ok.
But it’s TOO cheap.
It’s a $3 stock trading just below 12bn market cap. So shares outstanding are just shy of 4bn.
But they’re cash flow positive and have an active share buyback program of up to .75bn dollars in stock.
They are Uber, DoorDash, and fintech in one app. In 8 South Asian countries.
They have made some smart acquisitions and continue to expand.
Yes the ceo likes to sell about 400k shares every month, but when he still owns 75mm and the daily float is 40-50 million, it’s really not that big of a deal.
I like the tone of their recent earnings call. In 2022, they projected positive ebitda from their fintech arm by 2H of 2026. They just reiterated.
Thats good management.
The price of oil and weak currency are the main problems for multiple compression right now. But you get it at 1.75x EV/sales as a result. Uber trades at 6x and it’s considered cheap.
Oh yeah…
$1.23 of the $3/share is CASH.
That’s right. The actual business, which just raised 2026 revenue to 4.1 billion is currently being valued at $1.77/share, OR 4.9 billion.
1.2 p/s on a forward basis.
.57 PEG
2028 projects 1.2bn in FCF
It’s SOUND.
Uber owns 539 million shares, or 13% of the company. Toyota owns another 222 million.
Can you take a slow grind down to 2.50 if the war continues? High gas is the biggest headwind.
But we’re the war to end, it’s probably 3.50 immediately.
—————————
Claude gives it an extremely favorable risk/reward score at this multiple.
74/100:
Why not higher: Thailand is a real moat warning. FX and fuel are structural. AV creates near-term investment overhang. Eight regulatory relationships is genuine tail risk.
Why not lower: 1.75x EV/Sales, 0.57 PEG, 54% EBITDA growth, $750M buyback, and a major shareholder not selling — all at a 52-week low — almost never appear together. The $5.4B net cash position sets a genuine equity floor.
AV optionality is priced at zero. Southeast Asian demographics, urbanization, and financial services under-penetration are decade-long tailwinds.
Asymmetric setup with real but non-fatal risks.
———————
RSI is in the 20s now.
I like the low IV calls and I’m going to give patience a try here.
Why am I not just buying more NBIS or OUST?
Honestly, I like to have a few names outside of AI hardware and the cheap LEAPS present a decent chance at 3-4x within 12-18 months.
25 out of 25 analysts say “buy”
Avg PT of $5.86
This post was edited on 9/14/26 at 1:42 pm
Posted on 9/10/26 at 8:59 pm to bayoubengals88
Amit is known for being a retail high conviction investor in PLTR and HOOD.
He was buying PLTR with couch change when it was $6. He’s stayed with HOOD since $10.
I actually did not know that he’s been in GRAB for more than 18 month now, but he’s still buying.
Bought another 2k shares yesterday.
He was buying PLTR with couch change when it was $6. He’s stayed with HOOD since $10.
I actually did not know that he’s been in GRAB for more than 18 month now, but he’s still buying.
Bought another 2k shares yesterday.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:00 pm to bayoubengals88
i jumped in today 
Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:01 pm to bayoubengals88
I was wondering about this when you posted in the Paysigns thread. Thanks for the analytics. I saw the options were very cheap and seems worth taking a chance. Looking at it tomorrow.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:01 pm to bayoubengals88
I was eyeing it and doing some DD. Thanks for the post
Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:10 pm to jefforize
Just want to say to everyone:
1.
2. This is NOT NBIS.
NBIS 10xd in 15 months.
I’ll be thrilled if this gets to $5 by spring, but due to the way that I’m choosing to play it (LEAPS in size) that’s ok.
1.
2. This is NOT NBIS.
NBIS 10xd in 15 months.
I’ll be thrilled if this gets to $5 by spring, but due to the way that I’m choosing to play it (LEAPS in size) that’s ok.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:51 pm to bayoubengals88
I use grab whenever I visit Vietnam. They are faster, cheaper, and superior to uber. I guess that’s why uber left the market. They also put a hurting on Mai Lin and Vinasun , the two biggest taxi companies over there.
Posted on 9/10/26 at 9:59 pm to PeteRose
Great insight! Thanks
Posted on 9/10/26 at 10:03 pm to PeteRose
quote:Seems like a good time to share the history…
They are faster, cheaper, and superior to uber. I guess that’s why uber left the market.
Uber entered Southeast Asia aggressively around 2013-2014, expanding hard across the region as part of its global land-grab. Grab (originally "GrabTaxi," founded in Malaysia in 2012) was the scrappy local player. What followed was a brutal, multi-year cash-burning war — both companies subsidizing rides and drivers to buy market share, losing enormous sums in the process.
The difference was local knowledge. Grab understood the region in ways Uber didn't: it added motorbike taxis (GrabBike) because that's how people actually move through congested cities like Jakarta and Bangkok, it accepted cash in markets where credit card penetration was low, and it tailored the product country by country. Uber ran a more standardized global playbook that fit the region less well. Grab was winning share while both bled money.
By 2018, Uber was under pressure from investors to stop the global bleeding ahead of its IPO. So in March 2018, Uber struck a deal: it sold its entire Southeast Asian operations to Grab and, in exchange, took a stake in Grab — originally around 27.5%. Uber essentially surrendered the region, converting a money-losing war into equity in the winner.
That stake is the direct ancestor of today's holding. Through Grab's 2021 SPAC listing and subsequent dilution, Uber's position was reduced to the roughly 13.1% (535.9 million shares) it holds now. So the 13% isn't a strategic investment Uber chose to make — it's the residual of the exit settlement. Uber didn't buy into Grab; it was paid in Grab shares to leave.
The elegant part, in hindsight: Uber's retreat looks less like a defeat and more like a conversion. It stopped losing money in eight countries and instead owns a piece of the dominant regional platform. At today's depressed $3.04 price that stake is worth about $1.66 billion, and if Grab re-rates toward the bull scenarios, Uber captures the upside without having had to win the war it was losing.
Posted on 9/11/26 at 12:59 am to bayoubengals88
It's Friday so time to "gamble!" I'm in. Interesting research! Thanks BB88!
ETA - In at $2.96
ETA - In at $2.96
This post was edited on 9/11/26 at 8:42 am
Posted on 9/11/26 at 7:34 am to bayoubengals88
Thanks for the analysis. I researched after you posted about GRAB in the Paysigns thread, and got in at $3.05
Posted on 9/11/26 at 8:53 am to Naked Bootleg
yall keep in mind that at $3 share you’re paying 1% in ADR fees as well. I did really well on SE a few years ago, until I didn’t 
Posted on 9/11/26 at 9:08 am to cgrand
quote:
yall keep in mind that at $3 share you’re paying 1% in ADR fees as well.
I didn't see that fee pop up on schwab. Surprised me.
Posted on 9/11/26 at 4:14 pm to DoomGuy504
I wanted to know more about their acquisitions and how it all fits together. This is going to take some time.
They also own a 51% equity stake in US fintech STASH (plans to buy remaining stake over three years), and they are currently finalizing a deal to acquire FoodPanda, which will get them into Taiwan.
Rumors swirling that they are looking to buy a significant stake in Atome Financial.
They also own a 51% equity stake in US fintech STASH (plans to buy remaining stake over three years), and they are currently finalizing a deal to acquire FoodPanda, which will get them into Taiwan.
Rumors swirling that they are looking to buy a significant stake in Atome Financial.
Posted on 9/12/26 at 9:00 am to bayoubengals88
Without commenting on your fundamental analysis, I'll just point out that picking a turn (bottom or top) using options is fiendishly hard. There are disgruntled holders or prospective buyers ready to fade every counter-trend move, and the stock manipulators will give them plenty of headfakes. It's basically betting against the house. In my experience if something in a downtrend looks really cheap, I've had better luck thinking of the stock itself as an option (which is true) than trying to lever up on timing. The only exception would be if there's some identifiable binary event approaching, but that's usually priced into the options.
This post was edited on 9/12/26 at 9:14 am
Posted on 9/12/26 at 10:50 am to wdhalgren
I’ve got 2.25 years of run way for at the money and in the money calls.
Does that change anything from your perspective?
I will be managing a lot of these contracts…selling into a move upward and converting to shares.
Does that change anything from your perspective?
I will be managing a lot of these contracts…selling into a move upward and converting to shares.
Posted on 9/12/26 at 12:29 pm to bayoubengals88
It would be interesting to see the results on a side by side paper trade of DCAing into shares vs the options strategy, with your same timeframe benchmarks
Posted on 9/12/26 at 2:58 pm to bayoubengals88
what would be your goal on position size and cost basis at what point in time? Assuming you’ll use premium proceeds if any to scale into shares. Let’s do an experiment…it’s trading at 3.05 right now.
X units (the number of shares you want)/3 weeks (1/3 shares per week at market price) starting Monday, on paper. Can be bought on any day of that week.
I’d be interested to see if you are coming out ahead with options. My guess is that you arent
X units (the number of shares you want)/3 weeks (1/3 shares per week at market price) starting Monday, on paper. Can be bought on any day of that week.
I’d be interested to see if you are coming out ahead with options. My guess is that you arent
Posted on 9/12/26 at 3:38 pm to cgrand
So let’s say my goal is to have 10,000 shares by the end of January.
This would represent $30,500 in equity today.
Let’s call it 20 weeks.
That’ll be the target.
So you’re saying that on paper, I need to buy 500 shares per week and keep record of cost basis?
Does it matter how many options contracts I start with?
I currently own 444 shares outright.
This would represent $30,500 in equity today.
Let’s call it 20 weeks.
That’ll be the target.
So you’re saying that on paper, I need to buy 500 shares per week and keep record of cost basis?
Does it matter how many options contracts I start with?
I currently own 444 shares outright.
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