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re: The economy is so bad that the number of jobs created last month busted forecasts by 100K
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:39 am to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:39 am to JohnnyKilroy
If you use it as collateral for lines of credit good for you. Your opinion also is irrelevant to the discussion if that’s the case because you’re in a group that is not affected by rising prices.
1
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:41 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Didn’t yall say it was going to come crashing down 3 years ago?
Twenty years ago it took 8 years to create a new trillion in federal debt. Ten years ago it took around 2 years. Today it takes only 100 days.
What about that doesn't signal problems ahead?
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:50 am to wutangfinancial
quote:My net worth is also up 7 figures from June 21 to today. That's not the point either.
What a dumb comment. Does that magic number on your screen increase your ability to produce/consume goods and services? If not, you aren't wealthier.
I converted inflation rates (CPI and PCE) from June 2017 to June 2021 and June 2021 to today into CAGRs.
Here are the results:
CPI Data (June 2017 - June 2021)
The annual CPI inflation rates for these years are:
June 2017 - June 2018: 2.9%
June 2018 - June 2019: 1.6%
June 2019 - June 2020: 0.6%
June 2020 - June 2021: 5.4%
June 2021 - June 2022: 9.1%
June 2022 - June 2023: 3.0%
June 2023 - June 2024: 3.4% (last month estimated)
PCE Data (June 2017 - June 2021)
The annual PCE inflation rates for these years are:
June 2017 - June 2018: 2.1%
June 2018 - June 2019: 1.4%
June 2019 - June 2020: 0.5%
June 2020 - June 2021: 3.6%
June 2021 - June 2022: 6.4%
June 2022 - June 2023: 3.1%
June 2023 - June 2024: 2.3% (last month estimated)
PPI Data (June 2017 - June 2021)
The annual PPI inflation rates for these years are:
June 2017 - June 2018: 3.6%
June 2018 - June 2019: 1.7%
June 2019 - June 2020: -0.8%
June 2020 - June 2021: 7.3%
June 2021 - June 2022: 11.3%
June 2022 - June 2023: 6.4%
June 2023 - June 2024: 2.2% (last month estimated)
CPI CAGR (June 2017 thru June 2021): 2.57%
PCE CAGR (June 2017 thru June 2021: 1.89%
PPI CAGR (June 2017 - June 2021): 2.9%
CPI CAGR (June 2021 thru June 2024): 5.2%
PCE CAGR (June 2021 thru June 2024): 3.7%
PPI CAGR (June 2021 - June 2024): 6.55%
Whatever measure you use, "inflation" is more than double for two of the three measures over the stated time periods. So, while the economy has been strong enough to not crash, and people in the stock market have not lost their arse (although 2022 says "hello"), there has been a significant increase in volatility and drag due to inflation. Again, I'm just pissed as an investor that my "gains" aren't what they could be. The poor bastard on the street is getting plowed.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:54 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
Your opinion also is irrelevant to the discussion if that’s the case because you’re in a group that is not affected by rising prices.
The guy I was responding to claims to have an 8 figure port
Posted on 6/11/24 at 2:37 pm to RoyalWe
quote:Repeat: I don't know a single white collar professional that isn't way better off from 3 years ago.
10 years? Sure. 5 years? Yes. 3 years? No fricking way, for all the data and reasoning put forth multiple times. Nobody's making up anything, except maybe the government when they release their "data" only to revise it afterwards. Stop white knighting for these fools. At this point, I think you're just an idiot because I'd hate to think you actually believe your bullshite.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 2:40 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:Yes. Yes they did. It's not just moving goalposts - it's relocating the goalpost factory to China.
Didn’t yall say it was going to come crashing down 3 years ago?
Posted on 6/11/24 at 2:45 pm to Bard
quote:Point taken - but as always, would still prefer you strengthen it by at least mentioning growth in GDP alongside that. I believe it is about 2X as big now as it was in 2004.
Twenty years ago it took 8 years to create a new trillion in federal debt. Ten years ago it took around 2 years. Today it takes only 100 days.
What about that doesn't signal problems ahead?
I'm not happy about the equivalent of half a trillion being added in 100 days, but it's still less severe than what you implied.
You're obviously way smart and informed enough to not shade your arguments by dealing in absolutes instead of percentages. So why not do it?
Posted on 6/11/24 at 2:48 pm to RoyalWe
quote:Link? As compared to what period? Equity vol historical does not support your claim.
significant increase in volatility
This post was edited on 6/11/24 at 5:44 pm
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:06 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:Link deez nuts. Do I need to post annual returns over the past four years? Is that "normal" to you? What happened in 2022?
Link?
Your bullshite request for link is bullshite especially when you don't provide a link for your bullshite.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 6:07 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:So your personal experience is valid and doesn't require a link? I know plenty who would agree with me. You should expand your network.
Repeat: I don't know a single white collar professional that isn't way better off from 3 years ago.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 7:33 pm to RoyalWe
quote:So you're just throwing a tantrum, got it.
Link deez nuts. Do I need to post annual returns over the past four years? Is that "normal" to you? What happened in 2022?
Your bullshite request for link is bullshite especially when you don't provide a link for your bullshite.
If you pull up a VIX chart, there isn't much evidence to support your claim of heightened volatility since the current flare of inflation started. (At the very least, Covid started a year before that and that was a MUCH more volatile period).
But, we get it - you're in your feelings and just need safe space to vent. You've come to the right place.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 8:54 pm to Big Scrub TX
The only asset class with higher vol is Treasury securities and probably private credit which we wouldn’t hear about. Corporate bond spreads are insanely low
Posted on 6/11/24 at 9:29 pm to Big Scrub TX
Okay, everything's great.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 9:50 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:Higher than what? equity vol?
The only asset class with higher vol is Treasury securities and probably private credit which we wouldn’t hear about.
The markets are preposterously placid right now. His claim that "inflation has caused high vol" is just not borne out by any evidence.
Posted on 6/11/24 at 9:52 pm to RoyalWe
quote:Now we move to the next stage of the tantrum - making up shite and acting like someone else said it. It's a normal progression after an attempt to float fake facts has been unsuccesful.
Okay, everything's great.
We're with you little fella. You just keep processin' all this frustration and anger and you can get on back to the assembly line before break is up. We believe in you!
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:02 pm to Big Scrub TX
quote:
Point taken - but as always, would still prefer you strengthen it by at least mentioning growth in GDP alongside that. I believe it is about 2X as big now as it was in 2004.
I just like the simplicity of debt creation, most people understand it and it's easy to lay out.
I'm not sure how discussing GDP growth strengthens my stance unless you mean the growth in the total public debt as a percent of GDP. That underscores the problem as it shows the brunt of GDP growth since 2004 (from 59.8% in Q1 2004 to 122% in Q1 2024) has been from debt creation (and it's still rising).
This post was edited on 6/11/24 at 10:04 pm
Posted on 6/11/24 at 10:47 pm to Big Scrub TX
That was a typo I meant to say high
Posted on 6/12/24 at 8:39 am to Big Scrub TX
Posted on 6/12/24 at 9:02 am to RoyalWe
That’s the point. Don’t tell me I’m vastly better off than what I was 3 years ago. It’s not true. While my investing accounts may be slightly up from where they were 3 years ago, inflation robs that of being a win. I’m not suffering, but these lying assholes are trying to paint a picture of everything being super-duper awesome when those of us with half a brain know better. And I’m just bitching as someone who actually has assets in the stock market. Those poor bastards who don’t have been completely screwed.
--------'
I am clearly better off than I was 3 years ago. Not sure why you are acting like everyone is doing so poorly. I have been fortunate and understand that many low income people are struggling, but you do not speak for me. My stock accounts and my real estate investments are doing well. And quit being a keyboard tough guy with the name calling. I would whip your arse if you talked to me that way in person. Chill out.
--------'
I am clearly better off than I was 3 years ago. Not sure why you are acting like everyone is doing so poorly. I have been fortunate and understand that many low income people are struggling, but you do not speak for me. My stock accounts and my real estate investments are doing well. And quit being a keyboard tough guy with the name calling. I would whip your arse if you talked to me that way in person. Chill out.
Posted on 6/12/24 at 9:55 am to KTiger85
Never said I spoke for everyone and you’re on an internet message board where behavior and speech don’t sync with real life. Take it for what it is and move on. Sorry to get your panties in a wad with my uncharacteristic salty words. I hope we all do extremely well.
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