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Started By
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Taking a poll: Who thinks and why:
Posted on 5/25/23 at 11:43 pm
Posted on 5/25/23 at 11:43 pm
1. We are already in a recession
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
3. No recession markets will stay same or go up
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
3. No recession markets will stay same or go up
20
Posted on 5/26/23 at 6:22 am to Thomas98
Not 1 or 2. We are back in the Obama economy: Very low to non-existent GDP growth and low unemployment caused in large part by so many people not participating in the labor market. Only this time we have rampant inflation. And for many what wage growth there is doesn’t come close to keeping up. Don’t know if that answers your question.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 7:34 am to Thomas98
We have been told a recession was going to happen for over a year now. Seems like we have been answering the same question every 3 months. Do think the higher interest rates have started taking effect on people looking for homes ,car loans etc...Still not affecting prices on food, energy etc.. Prices still sky high with no lowering on those. People still willing to pay outrageous prices on eating out, taking trips etc.. I can see this dragging out for another year or longer whatever it is we're in. To answer your question 
Anybody who does think they know they dont.
Anybody who does think they know they dont.This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 7:36 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 7:43 am to Thomas98
If we don't enter a recession soon I'm really going to be worried for I Love Bama. Hopefully he shorted BUD to help him through these difficult times.
As for your question, Sloane made a good point. Hadn't really looked at it like that. I don't think the answer to your question is 1 or 2. If we do enter a recession, I think it's more likely 8-12 months down the road rather than 3 months. Although, my best guess right now tells me number 3 is probably most likely. I think the markets will essentially stay sideways for the next year or so.
As for your question, Sloane made a good point. Hadn't really looked at it like that. I don't think the answer to your question is 1 or 2. If we do enter a recession, I think it's more likely 8-12 months down the road rather than 3 months. Although, my best guess right now tells me number 3 is probably most likely. I think the markets will essentially stay sideways for the next year or so.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:09 am to Thomas98
2.78
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:13 am to Thomas98
Should edit to add age on this. Interesting to see the difference between who had any money last time we saw this and who was still in school.
I say #2. Consumer tapped out. 68% of GDP. Bear Stearns was a crack in the system, but somehow none of the banking issues we have now seem to draw concern. It's amazing.
I say #2. Consumer tapped out. 68% of GDP. Bear Stearns was a crack in the system, but somehow none of the banking issues we have now seem to draw concern. It's amazing.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:14 am to saint tiger225
quote:
If we don't enter a recession soon I'm really going to be worried for I Love Bama.
It's really this simple.
All markets are fricked. I don't understand how you guys can't look at these markets objectively and not see we are on the edge of a cliff.
Commercial Real Estate - Everyone bought with ballon loans coming due with rents that can't support the new interest rates. 100% fricked.
Residential Real Estate - Transaction levels are approaching lock down velocity with interest rates showing no sign of coming down. Only thing keeping it from crashing is low unemployment rates. If we hang on to low unemployment, we might can weather this storm.
Stock Market - Much harder to predict as people much smarter than myself frick up their predictions all the time. My personal guess is we have many more banks go under due to the high interest rate environment that spreads throughout the market.
Crypto - LOL. fricked (but still stacking)
We have been living in a low interest rate bubble since 2008 and those days are over.
If the Feds pivot and drop rates then yes, everything goes back up while sacrificing what is left of the dollar.
OP - Yes. 100% Recession in 2-6 months.
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 8:16 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:17 am to I Love Bama
quote:
It's really this simple.
All markets are fricked.
You sound like you're at least 40.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 8:37 am to Thomas98
1.
Small businesses not hiring. Layoffs are abounding. Banks are failing. Inventory not moving. We're at the top of a cliff ready to 2008 it.
Small businesses not hiring. Layoffs are abounding. Banks are failing. Inventory not moving. We're at the top of a cliff ready to 2008 it.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:02 am to Thomas98
3.
Employment is great, stock market is great. Mortgage rates are fine.
Government will raise debt ceiling, will not default.
Governments & currencies around the world are in worse shape than USD, which will strengthen the dollar.
Areas of concern: VC money is dry and getting drier. Stupid big bets seen over the past decade+ will stop. Your Uber ride will no longer be subsidized. BTC/Crypto, insofar as it isn't productive or producing anything of value, will devalue tremendously as the shine has worn off it as speculative gamble and its been left in the dust as far as new tech hype goes. Legalized gambling across the USA is a major problem - it is and will increasingly suck dollars out of the hands of consumers.
Trump will unfortunately get the GOP nomination, causing conservatives like myself to either stay home or vote for Biden. Biden will win re-election. The economy will not crash during this period and Biden will do nothing tremendously dangerous. Were Trump to pull off the win (not likely), more risk for the economy from wildcard factor. If Biden dies in office, expect markets to drop immediately which is the correct time to BUY BUY BUY. After that term, likely get a Republican in office (unless its Trump as nomination).
Employment is great, stock market is great. Mortgage rates are fine.
Government will raise debt ceiling, will not default.
Governments & currencies around the world are in worse shape than USD, which will strengthen the dollar.
Areas of concern: VC money is dry and getting drier. Stupid big bets seen over the past decade+ will stop. Your Uber ride will no longer be subsidized. BTC/Crypto, insofar as it isn't productive or producing anything of value, will devalue tremendously as the shine has worn off it as speculative gamble and its been left in the dust as far as new tech hype goes. Legalized gambling across the USA is a major problem - it is and will increasingly suck dollars out of the hands of consumers.
Trump will unfortunately get the GOP nomination, causing conservatives like myself to either stay home or vote for Biden. Biden will win re-election. The economy will not crash during this period and Biden will do nothing tremendously dangerous. Were Trump to pull off the win (not likely), more risk for the economy from wildcard factor. If Biden dies in office, expect markets to drop immediately which is the correct time to BUY BUY BUY. After that term, likely get a Republican in office (unless its Trump as nomination).
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 9:09 am
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:02 am to Thomas98
quote:
2. We will enter a recession in next 3 months
People are spending like there is no tomorrow. Look at housing and car purchasing.
I went with the SO to a DSW and it was mind blowing the amount of people in there.
What goes up must come down.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:05 am to Thomas98
Pain is for sure in the forecast, I think it may take longer than 3 months to set in though. People are pulling out all of the stops to maintain their spending.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:12 am to Thomas98
quote:That's the beauty of the Democrat Party. They move so methodically slow that they are undetectable. Glacial speed... The party of Stealth. Like that oak tree breaking the sidewalk outside your house.
1. We are already in a recession
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:40 am to Big_Sur
quote:
Were Trump to pull off the win (not likely), more risk for the economy from wildcard factor.
Wait, where have I heard this one?..
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:45 am to UpstairsComputer
quote:
You sound like you're at least 40.
Turning 40 in June
Posted on 5/26/23 at 9:54 am to I Love Bama
quote:
Turning 40 in June
Knew I could smell someone old enough to remember 2008.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 10:43 am to UpstairsComputer
Posted on 5/26/23 at 10:51 am to Enadious
Not in recession nor arewe going to be in one. All markets slowly improve through 2025 with ebbs and flows along the way....20225 will begin next Bull market. Right now is when people get establish and grow their personal net worth.....accumulate positions and buy real estate. Those of us who have seen this play out before will simply increase our worth.
Posted on 5/26/23 at 11:06 am to Thomas98
2, although it might be in the next 6 months rather than 3.
This post was edited on 5/26/23 at 11:08 am
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