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re: stock tip...FSLY

Posted on 2/11/21 at 5:50 pm to
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15122 posts
Posted on 2/11/21 at 5:50 pm to
quote:

everyone is tight as a drum for this earning call.
could be a huge swing either way

might reduce some to hedge in my cash account.

Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 8:35 am to
quote:

I might come in with some more short puts for 2/19 in the 88 or so range. If they both hit, FSLY looks like a good (at least) medium term hold that I could trade around.


Today = Ouch!

Looks like I’ll have to adjust the strike on those short puts.
Posted by bricksandstones
Member since Nov 2015
1712 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 8:38 am to
I need to hire somebody to bitch slap me and force me to sell next time this gets around 120. It's way too much of my portfolio as I picked this for my "big gamble" swing trade. I'm nervous about the call next week. Obviously still feel good about the company over the long term.

ETA: glad to see it bounce pretty hard off 100 there.
This post was edited on 2/12/21 at 8:53 am
Posted by Jag_Warrior
Virginia
Member since May 2015
4292 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 9:49 am to
Yes, it seems to have some support around 100. Depending on market sentiment today, we’ll see if it can hold that level.

You never want to have too heavy an allocation in one stock. As a rule of thumb, I try not to let any one position (stocks + options) exceed 10% of my available capital. But pick whatever level works for you. If you think that you need to lighten up this position, maybe determine the price(s) that works for you and sell enough covered calls at one or more strikes to rebalance (if they hit). The implied volatility is pretty high right now, so the premiums are rich going into earnings week (and should climb even higher a day or so before the call). As of right now, *just as an example*, you could sell a 2/19 110 call for 4.80. If it hits, that would be the equivalent of selling 100 shares for 114.80. If it doesn’t hit, then you’ve reduced your cost basis by 4.80.

Just throwing an idea out there for you. Not making a recommendation, as I don’t know your goals, or what your position or allocation looks like.

GL
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2196 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 11:12 am to
Not good news from recent earnings from one of their competitors, Limelight. FSLY is falling today in sync. Here's an excerpt from a report I just read. Seems pretty bearish on FSLY upcoming earnings.

"Piper Sandler analyst James Fish cited the Limelight issues in reiterating his Underweight rating on Fastly (FSLY), which reports results on Thursday. "Limelight's 10% top-line revenue miss provides a negative pre-cursor for Fastly, as the company will face similar price compression, coupled with lower net-adds in 2020 and its previously largest customer [TikTok] moving [to its own CDN]," or content-delivery network, he wrote. "We continue to believe Fastly's stock is not appropriately evaluating the negative data points and underlying business risks at current levels."

This post was edited on 2/12/21 at 11:13 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 11:32 am to
there is a risk holding thru earnings here relative to your cost basis. my cost basis is 28, others bought higher.

until i see an earnings miss here, i'm bullish.
nothing has changed for me about WHY i want to own it, only the share price. company execution will determine whether i change my mind.

nothing wrong with hedging here if you are way long BTW
Posted by skewbs
Member since Apr 2008
2196 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 11:41 am to
quote:

there is a risk holding thru earnings here relative to your cost basis. my cost basis is 28


Fair point indeed. I’m a bit higher, right at $63/share. Reviewing some analysts price targets is perplexing me though as I saw some as low as $65, and some as high as $120. Usually don’t see that much of a gap, almost a 100% difference in share price.

All that being said I’m holding and I’m long. Short term headwinds may be coming though. I’m interested to read their forward looking commentary / guidance along with the earnings release on Thursday.
Posted by METAL
Member since Nov 2020
1616 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 11:52 am to
Bought another call on today's dip.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 12:02 pm to
likely relevant

This post was edited on 2/12/21 at 12:03 pm
Posted by Gabe Rippen
New Orleans
Member since Jul 2016
597 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 12:23 pm to
I don't know as much about the stock but I bought in couple months ago planning to hold long. After seeing so many almost predictable fluctuations, I have started to trade this more.

Sold at 120 on one of the run ups a couple weeks ago with plans of reconsidering again on another drop. Do you think today is a good day to be back in?
Posted by METAL
Member since Nov 2020
1616 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 12:25 pm to
Personally, I do...

I bought a year out call 2 days ago and a 2 month out call today on the drop to near 100SMA
Posted by GeneralLee
Member since Aug 2004
13953 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 2:32 pm to
FSLY had a hell of a run during 2020, but feels like the party is over here. Bought OTM puts against my holdings to protect against this earnings call which I expect may be a pretty big disappointment.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/12/21 at 6:44 pm to
we will see
NET was flat, LLNW was shite.
AKAM was a beat

FSLY has only reported twice since the 20’s. 2Q was a blowout but only relative to expectations. 3Q was a small (3MM) miss but only due to tiktok. If they beat and guide above analysis I’ll be happy regardless of the market reaction
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 9:33 am to


Tuesday and Wednesday for the scalpers to get situated one way or another.
Posted by AA7
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2009
28447 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 9:37 am to
That sounds more promising than I was expecting.
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15122 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 12:34 pm to
I expect them to do fine. Stock will drop accordingly.

I ha e hedged some out. Will buy back in on the drop.

I think the company is a good one and will move up ultimately. It's why I have a significant amount in my 401k invested in them. My cash I'm using to buy up the dips. I would advise people to get ready and take the opportunity should it present itself.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
47074 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 3:47 pm to
good prudent advice.
the stock price is slippery right now, 100 is support but not concrete support. Down to the 80s it has a floor

FSLY is a toddler with wild mood swings
Posted by thejudge
Westlake, LA
Member since Sep 2009
15122 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 6:25 pm to
78-85 is my buy in for my reserve cash.

I feel they'll be solid 110-115 after this quarter
Posted by bass
Member since Oct 2016
4769 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 6:46 pm to
I’m buying 500 FSLY and 5 puts $10 in the money 2 weeks out and 1 outside the money. I make money if the stock rises past my puts and lose very little if it drops. Hoping it hits $140 range after earnings.
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12985 posts
Posted on 2/13/21 at 7:00 pm to
If it hits 140, cgrand is buying a condo in Florida and posting from the crystal sands
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