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Message
re: Software Stocks Plunge
Posted on 4/11/26 at 11:01 am to jefforize
Posted on 4/11/26 at 11:01 am to jefforize
quote:
Software is rotating into photonics
Relative size of those two industries is massively different. Software capital is moving to essentially all technology hardware. Semiconductors are going up too, with most semiconductor ETFs hitting ATHs yesterday
0
Posted on 4/11/26 at 11:09 am to bayoubengals88
I’ve added a lot of MSFT under 200 weekly EMA
It will take a long time for AI to replace MSFT products in enterprise or personal computing. People don’t actually like change, and running an AI operating system through Linux or replacing all Office fixture software is unlikely to happen quickly or potentially at all. The path of least resistance for AI to infiltrate the workplace is as a standalone tool, then as a tool to augment other tools
Also no one at all has dared to price in MSFT providing CoPilot premium for free. The absolute MSFT move would be to destroy the profitability of the premium LLM market by throwing in an 80-90% premium LLM for free in their bundle, then slowly hike bundle license costs over time. They own a significant amount of OpenAI who wouldn’t be happy with it, but if the premium Copilot is only running GPT models they might get behind it. This one simple change flips the script and puts MSFT in the position of power with Enterprise bundle MOAT again
It will take a long time for AI to replace MSFT products in enterprise or personal computing. People don’t actually like change, and running an AI operating system through Linux or replacing all Office fixture software is unlikely to happen quickly or potentially at all. The path of least resistance for AI to infiltrate the workplace is as a standalone tool, then as a tool to augment other tools
Also no one at all has dared to price in MSFT providing CoPilot premium for free. The absolute MSFT move would be to destroy the profitability of the premium LLM market by throwing in an 80-90% premium LLM for free in their bundle, then slowly hike bundle license costs over time. They own a significant amount of OpenAI who wouldn’t be happy with it, but if the premium Copilot is only running GPT models they might get behind it. This one simple change flips the script and puts MSFT in the position of power with Enterprise bundle MOAT again
Posted on 4/14/26 at 8:42 am to bayoubengals88
Added CRM this morning, hopefully software is beginning to recover
Posted on 4/14/26 at 10:07 am to Upperdecker
quote:
I’ve added a lot of MSFT under 200 weekly EMA
Smart move, I think MSFT has been a gift at these prices. I’ve started using Copilot and it’s terrific. Had the darn thing writing python scripts and executing with Excel, all included in my 365 Family subscription.
Posted on 4/16/26 at 8:16 am to bayoubengals88
quote:Let's cross $100 baby!!
I bought NOW at $82.
Posted on 4/16/26 at 8:24 am to bayoubengals88
Earnings in a week, but I have a long way to go to get into the green on NOW.
Posted on 4/16/26 at 3:31 pm to LSUSports247
Debating on adding it and Microsoft
Posted on 4/16/26 at 3:53 pm to GREENHEAD22
Software still way down, hopefully we’ve started the recovery. I wish my NOW avg was the same as BB88’s.
Posted on 4/21/26 at 9:03 am to LSUSports247
Software making nice moves today. Earnings tomorrow for NOW, please don’t tank like the last two earnings…..
Posted on 4/21/26 at 9:38 am to LSUSports247
Yep, and I think I may hold through the print.
I've since added a good bit more in the $90s as I've seen the turnaround gaining momentum.
NOW is now a significant holding.
Let's hope the AI acquisition gets them back to $150+
I've since added a good bit more in the $90s as I've seen the turnaround gaining momentum.
NOW is now a significant holding.
Let's hope the AI acquisition gets them back to $150+
Posted on 4/21/26 at 9:49 am to bayoubengals88
I would love $150+, NOW is currently my largest position but my avg is $130….
Also have CRM, PATH, ZETA
Also have CRM, PATH, ZETA
Posted on 4/21/26 at 10:00 am to LSUSports247
quote:
I would love $150+, NOW is currently my largest position but my avg is $130….
I have a small position of NOW at $176, so I would happily take $150 to be less painful. Will probably hold for some time, it will get to $200 eventually.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 9:12 am to DarthRebel
Let’s try this software run again today! Don’t fizzle out like yesterday
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 9:13 am
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:09 am to LSUSports247
quote:
Let’s try this software run again today! Don’t fizzle out like yesterday
We have to get past, "Anthropic is going to replace all software companies".
Posted on 4/22/26 at 1:19 pm to DarthRebel
Really good stuff here:
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 4/22/26 at 2:25 pm to bayoubengals88
This is the stuff the infuriates me, being knee deep in AI myself right now
The AI agent revolution is very much over stated and not part of reality. Will it happen, at some point, but 2026 is not that year. Companies are starting to come to grips with that, people still matter and AI is very good at "almost" being there.
quote:
The stock is at $100, down 37 percent this year. Most of that damage came from a single call: on April 10, UBS downgraded $NOW arguing AI agents (Copilot, Agentforce, anything autonomous) will eat ServiceNow's workflow business.
The AI agent revolution is very much over stated and not part of reality. Will it happen, at some point, but 2026 is not that year. Companies are starting to come to grips with that, people still matter and AI is very good at "almost" being there.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 3:38 pm to DarthRebel
They just shat all over NOW for a slight reduction in growth
Posted on 4/22/26 at 3:42 pm to Upperdecker
You're right. It got shat on just to get shat on.
All the most important subscription based numbers are fantastic...you know, that ones that disprove the AI threat...
Thankfully had two protective puts. Honestly not worried about shares long term, but not optimistic about seeing $100 soon.
If it does recover then I've got to hand it to them. That would be one hell of a retail shakeout.
All the most important subscription based numbers are fantastic...you know, that ones that disprove the AI threat...
Thankfully had two protective puts. Honestly not worried about shares long term, but not optimistic about seeing $100 soon.
If it does recover then I've got to hand it to them. That would be one hell of a retail shakeout.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 3:45 pm to Upperdecker
quote:
They just shat all over NOW for a slight reduction in growth
quote:
Here is what actually printed vs my estimates. Revenue $3.77B (I had $3.79B). Subscription growth 19 percent constant currency (I had 20). cRPO growth 21 percent cc, which hit my bull number exactly. EPS $0.97 (I had $1.01, Street had $0.96). FY26 subscription guide raised by roughly $ 200M to $15.735 to $15.775B, much bigger than my $30 to $ 50M base case. RPO $27.7B, up 25 percent. On the growth picture the print was broadly fine and in some ways better than I modeled.
The sell-off is about one line. Q2 operating margin guide came in at 26.5 percent versus Street around 31.5 percent. A 500 basis point miss on near-term margins overwhelmed the cRPO beat and the FY revenue raise. Full-year op margin guide at 31.5 percent, FCF margin 35 percent, both a touch below expectations.
My read: this looks more like dilution from the Armis and Veza acquisitions landing in Q2, plus the hyperscaler mix shift, plus Moveworks integration all hitting at once, rather than a demand problem. cRPO at 21 percent cc and RPO at 25 percent is what I would want to see if the business is structurally healthy. Subscription gross margin held at 81.5 percent. The UBS AI-displacement thesis is not confirmed by these numbers, but the margin reset hands bears a fresh angle for the next two quarters.
Posted on 4/22/26 at 3:49 pm to bayoubengals88
Same shite the past three earnings…..this is why I’m down so much on this one, still holding.
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