re: Real estate is insane. Is this sustainable?

We've lived in Brookhaven 15 years and are considering cashing out and moving to the lake, but had planned to do it in 5-6 years after the last kid goes to college.

My wife is an agent (no pics) and is been working crazy hours since September when activity started picking up and rates really cratered. The truth is that Buyers suck right now and its causing listing agents to require offers with stipulations that were unheard of the prior 20 years of her career.

shite like removing appraisal contingencies, 3 day due diligence, max .5-1% buyers agent commission, only best offers above list considered..- Despite the attempt to weed out the tire kickers, contracts are still cancelling at a 50% rate. Buyers are throwing offers before showings just to have first dibs if the house ends up what they want.

Columbus ohio is nuts as well, I bought my house 4 years ago and it's almost doubled in price. Buyers have gotten so desperate they are waiving home inspections on offers

I hear ya man- those first time homebuyers will be fine. They can choose to stay in the home if values fall and ride it out like the ones who were able to do it in 2008. If they buy too much house and lose it, they have enough time ahead of them to lick their wounds and learn from the mistake. Nancy and Chuck will undoubtably feel they should bail out some segment of them.

We are about 10 years away from our retirement plans, and in that precarious position of deciding whether to bail and move early, which changes ours and our 2 high schoolers commutes and lifestyles of being close to everything early or stick to our original plans

My head tells me to pipe down and stick to the plans and everything will be ok- my gut is giving me visions of Johnny Utah and Bodi on Bells Beach.

Hood ornament on a freight train

Brookhaven in the middle of blue hell ATL

Are there any publicly traded companies that would benefit from mass evictions?

The conditions you described with your wife....

Thats how it feels/seems here. I've followed residential real estate listings every single day for 15 years and I have never seen anything like what is going on.

People are paying prices and agreeing to contract stipulations that are really, really not going to be good for them.

There is no way I'm negotiating against a fool.

There was a 3,200 sq ft house here listed @ 480K that ended up selling for 575K after a bidding war....

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There's not 25% more buyers all of a sudden.

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It's not the millennials becoming buyers, as there aren't very many of them and they're mostly poor and burdened by student loans.

The millennials are the smallest generation of the 20th century (born post 1990 - 1992), it's the generation Y folks buying their second or third houses now. 75 million Americans were born 1978 - 1990 and outnumber the baby boomers, plus they've enjoyed the 2 biggest bull markets in history as working adults and didn't get screwed by tuition inflation that went especially crazy beginning in the early 21st century.

Anyone that has been putting their money into the stock market the last 20+ years (and borrowing as much as possible via low interest mortgages to fund the investment) should be a millionaire several times over and able to bid on what they want.

In a low interest environment, putting your money anywhere but stocks first is crazy, as is forgoing the power of leverage by paying off your house. I'll take 20%+ returns from stocks for decades at the cost of a 3% mortgage as long as I'm alive. Especially as we're entering a period of near hyperinflation, you'd want to borrow as much as possible and invest in assets (real estate, stock indexes) that will grow much faster than your fixed borrowing rates. If you consider we actually have negative real rates, waiting to invest or not borrowing will hurt your quality of life and personal balance sheet.

Edit: It's sustainable as long as rates stay low, and they always will remain low for our lifetimes. The US Treasury would go bankrupt in short order if we ever returned to 3.5 - 4% 10-year rates from 10-15 years ago. With 100+ trillion in future liabilities on the horizon and a shrinking workforce to drive a knowledge-based economy, the only option is print money to keep rates low and inflate away that 100+ trillion debt.

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I don't mind being a renter for a bit

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Are you sure? Are you married? There's more to being a renter than just paying a mortgage. You can't customize the home, you can't have "projects", you can't be in charge of the maintenance. Sure its nice to have someone have to foot the bills and be in charge of that, but that's only if they do a good job.

Most importantly, you likely aren't renting a nice home. Most rentals are dated, need work done, and are otherwise very generic.

ETA: Additionally, many rentals aren't in the neighborhood you may choose to live in if you were to buy.

If that suits you fine, I just think a lot of people talk about renting being a good idea until the reality of actually living in a rental with a wife hits them when the only reason they are doing it is to not have to buy.

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So you man up and let her know this is the right financial play for the family. Don't be whipped/let her be an emotional terrorist.

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What does right financial play mean though? Everyone spends money on things they don't need to for their own happiness.

Living in a rental due to a move or short term job or similar situation is fine. I just think living in a rental by choice to not have to buy and hopefully time the market better, is not going to be an ideal situation.

Plenty of issues related to renting relate to masculine things too, like garage renovations and what not. You simply don't have the freedoms you do while renting as you do while owning.

If you go from owning for 30 years to renting for a year, I just think it can be a bigger transition then people give it credit for.