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Posted on 9/13/12 at 1:04 pm to OnTheBrink
quote:
To Benny, Hedge, Janky -
I understand what is going on, but don't put me in the same league as these guys when it comes to this.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 1:06 pm to Janky
Whats the MB's opinion on the market after this news? False rally or will it continue to move higher?
Posted on 9/13/12 at 1:11 pm to OnTheBrink
quote:Actual QE3 has been priced into the market for some time. The future movements of the market from this point on out will depend on data and Europe announcements, although I believe we have insulated ourselves from European headline risk somewhat with this announcement.
Whats the MB's opinion on the market after this news? False rally or will it continue to move higher?
By insulated I'm referring to the left tail of the distribution.
This post was edited on 9/13/12 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 9/13/12 at 3:23 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Time for the final leg up of the commodity boom. I think the SPR will be used to keep oil down going into the election. Unless this very convenient Middle East flare up is used as the oil run up cause.
Posted on 9/13/12 at 3:58 pm to LSU0358
I would be too scared to bet against oil from here into the election.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 12:18 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
How does the Fed determine the rate at which to ease?
Posted on 9/14/12 at 1:41 pm to GumboPot
Posted on 9/14/12 at 2:05 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Good one.
This post was edited on 9/14/12 at 2:06 pm
Posted on 9/14/12 at 4:08 pm to AUtigerNOLA
Posted on 9/14/12 at 4:59 pm to GumboPot
quote:
How does the Fed determine the rate at which to ease?
Depends on the market supply that they are targeting. For MBS, they look at the float outstanding and the origination going forward. For treasuries, its about issuance and outstanding.
This is why the Fed can't target treasuries with this. There is only about $940B of 10-30 year treasuries outstanding and the Fed has a 70% limit on issues. Since they already own a huge portion of 10-30s, if they start getting close to that 70% limit not only is the curve stupid flat but they actually suck the liquidity out of the market. That could increase rate volatility which is what the Fed does not want to do.
Posted on 9/14/12 at 6:45 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Posted on 9/14/12 at 6:48 pm to BennyAndTheInkJets
Posted on 9/14/12 at 9:01 pm to GumboPot
I am not a fan of the Bernank, but what can he do? Congress is out of control and won't / can't cut spending and raise revenue. Even if they could, we couldn't make the debt work.
So, cook the books on inflation and employment, print money, and hope all turn out well.
Personally, I see this ending in some sort of revolution in the US, so anything we can do to postpone this may be good.
So, cook the books on inflation and employment, print money, and hope all turn out well.
Personally, I see this ending in some sort of revolution in the US, so anything we can do to postpone this may be good.
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