PPI comes in cooler than expected

June and July will be the better indicators. I know we have a 25% price increase in my industry going into effect next Monday.

25% across the board? That seems awful chainsawish, of course I don’t know your industry.

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Seems like 2 rate cuts are now being priced in

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If we go by the average revision, the revised May jobs number will come in somewhere from 100k-80k (~75k is what many consider to be the break-even point for keeping up with attrition). With CPI and PPI now coming in lower than expectations, it's reasonable to expect PCE to do the same (expectation is something like .15%, I think).

We might get a .25 cut this month (very low chance), but more likely they're going to hold back due to inflation fears over "muh tariffs". That said, we may get some positive comments indicating a greater chance of a cut in July or September (depending mainly on if their tariff fearpr0n is realized). If we don't get a cut in July but Q2 GDP comes in negative (ie: the short-hand definition of recession), you can bet we'll get one in September.

From the largest domestic supplier: "The global inflationary challenges that we are experiencing continue to create extraordinary pressures on our economy and in turn our business....Despite these on-going efforts, increasing raw materials, logistics, electricity and labor costs necessitate price increases on the following flat glass products, effective with shipments beginning on June 16, 2025."

Two other suppliers have followed. We are awaiting the fourth and final big player, but history says they'll follow suit.

Historically, glass price increases are 8-10% at a time. We had a massive covid increase of 40%.

Please provide a coherent answer to why specifically im wrong stalker?

I figured

Please provide a coherent answer to why specifically im wrong stalker?

I figured
________

The federal rate is best managed by not having knee-jerk reactions. There is not a good case to change them this month. More data and patience are the correct path. The economy is volatile.

You believe because the previous month's data is not reflecting inflationary pressures is a reason to make a conclusion. Another mistake. Timing, the postponements, the fact that businesses did everything they could to purchase ahead all are factors. Had the threatened tariffs been left in place, you would have received an education. I don't think I will invest any more of my time on this with someone that doesn't believe tariffs are inflationary.