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Message
re: OUST - LiDAR for Physical AI and Smart Infrastructure
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:13 pm to castorinho
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:13 pm to castorinho
The very definition of consolidation:
Day's Range
31.06 - 36.05
Volume
6,883,024
Avg. Volume
2,603,411
Day's gain
0.00%
This is bullish price action, especially with indices down 1-2%
The 9 EMA rose a full dollar today, and now we have a wick that hugs it.
That's the low of 31.06 on the day.
I'm expecting a challenge of $40 next week.
Once the 50 day crosses the 200 I'll be ultra bullish for $55
My chart analysis. Not financial advice.
Day's Range
31.06 - 36.05
Volume
6,883,024
Avg. Volume
2,603,411
Day's gain
0.00%
This is bullish price action, especially with indices down 1-2%
The 9 EMA rose a full dollar today, and now we have a wick that hugs it.
That's the low of 31.06 on the day.
I'm expecting a challenge of $40 next week.
Once the 50 day crosses the 200 I'll be ultra bullish for $55
My chart analysis. Not financial advice.
0
Posted on 5/15/26 at 3:14 pm to castorinho
Closed right where we did yesterday. To the penny.
Congrats to all that bought the dip this morning and still turned some green on a neutral finish!
Congrats to all that bought the dip this morning and still turned some green on a neutral finish!
Posted on 5/15/26 at 4:33 pm to HogPharmer
The competition (why I'm most bullish):
Section 1 — Key Stats: Market cap, shares outstanding, cash, debt, gross margin, 2025 revenue, and 2026 guidance side-by-side for all five.
Section 2 — Thesis: Technology edge, profitability timeline, and the 25-word bull/bear for each name.
Section 3 — Customers: Top accounts for each company laid out in a clean row.
A few things worth flagging from the data:
HSAI is in a league of its own — $433M revenue, 46% growth, and the only lidar company with full-year GAAP net income ($62M), sitting on $1.07B cash with zero debt. It's not really a peer to the others so much as the benchmark they're all chasing.
OUST posted record 2025 revenue of $169M with a 60% gross margin in Q4, but that includes ~$23M in largely one-time royalties — the organic margin story is closer to 35–40%.
AEVA ended 2025 with $122M cash and a $125M undrawn facility, giving it the longest runway of the pre-revenue group — and the Nvidia DRIVE Hyperion reference sensor win is a genuine catalyst.
MVIS revenue collapsed 74% in 2025 to $1.2M due to legacy contract expiration — the Luminar hardware and Scantinel acquisitions reset the base, so 2026's $10–15M guidance is really a fresh start.
INVZ has $60M cash, zero debt, but is burning ~$15M per quarter — the shortest runway of the group and the most urgency around its H2 2026 revenue ramp.
Section 1 — Key Stats: Market cap, shares outstanding, cash, debt, gross margin, 2025 revenue, and 2026 guidance side-by-side for all five.
Section 2 — Thesis: Technology edge, profitability timeline, and the 25-word bull/bear for each name.
Section 3 — Customers: Top accounts for each company laid out in a clean row.
A few things worth flagging from the data:
HSAI is in a league of its own — $433M revenue, 46% growth, and the only lidar company with full-year GAAP net income ($62M), sitting on $1.07B cash with zero debt. It's not really a peer to the others so much as the benchmark they're all chasing.
OUST posted record 2025 revenue of $169M with a 60% gross margin in Q4, but that includes ~$23M in largely one-time royalties — the organic margin story is closer to 35–40%.
AEVA ended 2025 with $122M cash and a $125M undrawn facility, giving it the longest runway of the pre-revenue group — and the Nvidia DRIVE Hyperion reference sensor win is a genuine catalyst.
MVIS revenue collapsed 74% in 2025 to $1.2M due to legacy contract expiration — the Luminar hardware and Scantinel acquisitions reset the base, so 2026's $10–15M guidance is really a fresh start.
INVZ has $60M cash, zero debt, but is burning ~$15M per quarter — the shortest runway of the group and the most urgency around its H2 2026 revenue ramp.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 4:35 pm
Posted on 5/15/26 at 4:51 pm to bayoubengals88
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 5/15/26 at 5:32 pm to HogPharmer
quote:
Congrats to all that bought the dip this morning and still turned some green on a neutral finish!
Posted on 5/15/26 at 5:42 pm to Neauxla
I need to learn more about AEVA and HSAI.
AEVA is more of a moonshot where OUST is a realistic 5x
AEVA is more of a moonshot where OUST is a realistic 5x
Posted on 5/15/26 at 7:48 pm to bayoubengals88
Don’t do this
In fact, I’m so risk averse now days that I sold all 7 of my 2027 $40 strike calls today from 9.40 to 11.40
Bought BRUN, ELVA, and OUST with the gains.
In fact, I’m so risk averse now days that I sold all 7 of my 2027 $40 strike calls today from 9.40 to 11.40
Bought BRUN, ELVA, and OUST with the gains.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/15/26 at 8:53 pm to bayoubengals88
Chinese Hesai allegedly “borrowed” its tech from Ouster. The U.S. is planning to block Hesai from doing business here due to Chinese spy tech. American made Ouster should have a monopoly on military and robotic applications in the U.S. soon. So the comparison to China’s Hesai should come with a warning label.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 9:37 pm to bayoubengals88
This is some r/WSB shite.
Posted on 5/16/26 at 6:39 am to PinevilleTiger
quote:
American made Ouster should have a monopoly on military and robotic applications in the U.S. soon. So the comparison to China’s Hesai should come with a warning label.
That’s what I’m banking on.
Looking forward to the passage of the Safe LiDAR Act
Posted on 5/16/26 at 6:40 am to HogPharmer
quote:
This is some r/WSB shite.
What is? The infographic?
That’s all Claude.
Posted on 5/16/26 at 1:04 pm to PinevilleTiger
Speaking of China, Angus getting bold. Love it!!
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 5/16/26 at 7:02 pm to bayoubengals88
Is OUST signaling CAT as a customer…??
Twits
Caterpillar is actively hiring for specialized roles focused on LiDAR integration to advance their autonomous and automated heavy machinery. These positions drive the design, development, and third-party vendor management of LiDAR components for Cat's smart-tech divisions.
Twits
Caterpillar is actively hiring for specialized roles focused on LiDAR integration to advance their autonomous and automated heavy machinery. These positions drive the design, development, and third-party vendor management of LiDAR components for Cat's smart-tech divisions.
This post was edited on 5/16/26 at 7:06 pm
Posted on 5/16/26 at 7:16 pm to bayoubengals88
If you had spare cash would you put it on OUST, NBIS or another stock. Looking to add or find other stock to invest in on Monday. Also would like some recommendations on calls.
This post was edited on 5/16/26 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 5/16/26 at 7:42 pm to jerryc436
I’m not buying NBIS here, but I’m not selling either.
I think there’s a good chance we could see 40% on OUST next 3-5 weeks.
Honestly, I wouldn’t buy calls in OUST unless there’s another flash crash.
IV is too high.
I’d sell Jan 2027 $60 strike though.
I also own ELVA, BRUN, and FPS, and I would like to get back into PENG.
KEEL is also looking good at $4.30 or so.
As I said in another thread, I’ll gladly drop ELVA if it continues downward.
My basis is 9.87. I bought it as a steady gainer. I think we could see $12 soon.
I think there’s a good chance we could see 40% on OUST next 3-5 weeks.
Honestly, I wouldn’t buy calls in OUST unless there’s another flash crash.
IV is too high.
I’d sell Jan 2027 $60 strike though.
I also own ELVA, BRUN, and FPS, and I would like to get back into PENG.
KEEL is also looking good at $4.30 or so.
As I said in another thread, I’ll gladly drop ELVA if it continues downward.
My basis is 9.87. I bought it as a steady gainer. I think we could see $12 soon.
This post was edited on 5/16/26 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 5/16/26 at 7:48 pm to bayoubengals88
Would you care to explain. I have only done BTO calls in the past. What is the play on selling $60 strike. Are you selling a BTO or BTC call or put?
Posted on 5/16/26 at 9:42 pm to jerryc436
Sorry, I should have just said “sell a covered call”, which I believe you do a lot of..?
Can you sell naked calls? I don’t even know…
Can you sell naked calls? I don’t even know…
Posted on 5/17/26 at 7:46 am to bayoubengals88
I had 2 CC's called and I want to use some of that cash to sell to open Puts on NBIS. I want to replace some shares or build cash with the premium. On OUST I am thinking of doing the same with puts to add at around $30-$32 or build cash from premium. Do you believe this is a good strategy. I will also buy more shares of OUST on Monday because I do not own as many shares as I plan to have in the next few months. My strategy on NBIS backfired because it increased in price a lot faster than I anticipated. One on my bigger regrets. I have around 30K in my IRA that I want to put to work so if you have something to fell good about besides OUST let me know.
This post was edited on 5/17/26 at 8:05 am
Posted on 5/17/26 at 8:57 am to jerryc436
quote:
I have around 30K in my IRA that I want to put to work so if you have something to fell good about besides OUST let me know.
Selling a PUT on NBIS is going to cost at least 15-20k depending on what you select.
I like PENG, FPS, and BRUN though it’s the same sector as NBIS.
ELVA or TRT may be worth a trade, but I don’t think I could buy TRT above $20.
ELVA is ready to buy IMO.
Posted on 5/17/26 at 8:58 am to jerryc436
quote:I think it’s just fine.
On OUST I am thinking of doing the same with puts to add at around $30-$32 or build cash from premium. Do you believe this is a good strategy. I will also buy more shares of OUST on Monday because I do not own as many shares as I plan to have in the next few months.
Not interested in collecting premium on Jan 2027 $60s?
I’ll be looking to sell at least one of these for around $8 this week.
More than 20% gains locked in.
This post was edited on 5/17/26 at 9:10 am
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