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Oil Stocks

Posted on 2/3/12 at 6:51 pm
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 6:51 pm
I can't help but think we are headed to $4 gas by the summer. What's the best play for someone anticipating $4 gas in the stock market?
Posted by raw dog
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
483 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 7:08 pm to
Gas prices aren't everything. Be careful

*Gas prices at your local gas station aren't everything
This post was edited on 2/3/12 at 7:09 pm
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 7:18 pm to
How about $150 a barrel of oil?
Posted by raw dog
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
483 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 7:21 pm to
quote:

How about $150 a barrel of oil?


$150? Yes please.
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
46159 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 9:34 pm to
I went long on RIG at $40.xx and before that I was long in BP when it hit $38.xx. There's a ton of solid plays and you're right about the price of gas - i can't wait till we hit summer and these stocks skyrocket
Posted by TigerBite
Dallas
Member since Feb 2004
2761 posts
Posted on 2/3/12 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

How about $150 a barrel of oil?


$150 oil favors exploration and production companies, assuming they are finding crude. Remember that refiners have to purchase $150 crude and they may not be making a penny more than they are now depending on what their product yields are and what their crack spreads end up being.

If crude actually goes to $150, you better sell all oil and gas because it won't last. It's not a sustainable number economically, so go short equities in general. You'll have demand destruction followed by a huge reversal in prices and then a hurt economy due to fuel costs.

If you think we'll see $4 gas and it's going to be on the backs of refining margins, go long refiners and the large integrated oil companies. If you think it's because of commodity prices, go long E&Ps. If you think it's both, run for the hills and get out of the stock market and conserve cash because we're looking at 08 again IMO.
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 8:51 am to
quote:

If you think we'll see $4 gas and it's going to be on the backs of refining margins, go long refiners and the large integrated oil companies. If you think it's because of commodity prices, go long E&Ps. If you think it's both, run for the hills and get out of the stock market and conserve cash because we're looking at 08 again IMO.


My 2 plays: OXY & APA

MILL is another one that interest me?


Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 9:49 am to
Why not use an etf like xle or iye and get tham all?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 10:22 am to
Why not just buy the best ones that achieve the pal the best?
Posted by wegotdatwood
Member since Aug 2009
17094 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 10:59 am to
Is RIG an exploration and production company?
Posted by TheOcean
#honeyfriedchicken
Member since Aug 2004
46159 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 11:01 am to
LINK

it's knocking on the door of the $50 resistance. once it breaks through it could be in the $60-$70 range come summer time. also, the $.79 dividend is pretty nice
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 11:27 am to
Flask, are there any oil stocks you like off the top of your head? CHV looks cheap but they recently had some production problems in Brazil.
Posted by dkreller
Laffy
Member since Jan 2009
34116 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 1:10 pm to
I just got hired on by Baker Hughes and I was reading some good things about their stock the other day....predicted to jump $30 by years end. I don't know shite about stock though but I will be getting in on the stock purchasing plan.
Posted by gonads&strife
Member since Dec 2011
1885 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 2:31 pm to
I'd be careful with energy stocks. We're looking at $2.50 nat gas for the foreseeable future so the only thing propping up the industry and the stocks is oil. If the oil market weakens due to problems in Europe, more recession in the US are more slowing in china and oil gets down in the $60 range it will be a bloodbath. First time in 10 years I've been nervous about the industry's future.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 2:34 pm to
I like Still like BP and hold a lot of it. I like APA a lot as well, but don't hold any. APC is also probably still a buy, but I haven't looked at it in a while. I like betting on alternatives if I think oil is going to go up, but all of my favorites have taken such a run up, that I got out of them. I would look into small E&P companies right now if I were putting money into the sector, but I can't suggest any off of the top of my head.


quote:

I just got hired on by Baker Hughes and I was reading some good things about their stock the other day....predicted to jump $30 by years end. I don't know shite about stock though but I will be getting in on the stock purchasing plan.


Obviously. Do you think you stumbled on inside info? Please be careful. No need to lose all of your money in something dumb like this.

Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 2:48 pm to
What he said. +1.
Posted by TJG210
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2006
29448 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 3:18 pm to
I absolutely love Cameron, National Oilwell Varco, and WTI and are long on all 3.

NOV and Cameron are easy.......right now both are making money hand over fist on valves/equipment on the shale plays. I'm in the industry and the demand for valves are absolutely through the roof right now, if oil prices continue to rise so will demand for these items.

WTI is a stock I've traded in and out of the last few years and done fairly well, it's at $21 now, and I could see it easily heading to $25-30 if oil goes to $120/barrel as I expect.
Posted by dkreller
Laffy
Member since Jan 2009
34116 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 3:29 pm to
great post....it was much needed

eta - You're a tool.

Which part of my post made it "obvious" that I don't know shite about stock? The part where I said I don't know shite about stock?
This post was edited on 2/4/12 at 3:36 pm
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 3:34 pm to
We've done some work with some private valve and dehydrater companies in Houston and Midland and they're just going absolutely bonkers right now. The one in Midland has been around for 40 years and they were hitting 200+% year over year revenue growth in Nov/Dec.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 2/4/12 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

You're a tool.


Join the club.

quote:

Which part of my post made it "obvious" that I don't know shite about stock? The part where I said I don't know shite about stock?


No, the part where you were talking about blindly throwing a otn of money into a company you don't know about because you "read some stuff".

I'm not on here to flex for novices, if I were to do that, I would have gone into a really long analysis on why your actions were not only unjustifiably risky, but why you are falling into one of the very first pitfalls of investing.

I don't care if you think I'm a dick, if I can stop you from losing your lifetime savings and becoming a leach on the system in your old age, not because you are worthless, but because you made an incredibly common mistake, then that's a victory.
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