re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

I'll address one of your points about "shady exchanges". Most exchanges (I think all now based on new regulations) are CFTC regulated, so the counter party risk is guaranteed by the exchange, not the counter party. The issue is pricing is high due to the volatility. It's been a challenge for me to try to find a viable exchange. I used to be on LedgerX, but that's dried up. I was never on an crypto option's exchange that didn't have counter party risk guaranteed, and I would never trade on a foreign based exchange, which I believe are illegal in the US, but still widely used by US consumers.

Regarding the cold wallets / hot wallet argument, most crypto exchanges show where and how they insure customer's crypto. Someplace way back I posted that. So I'm not an advocate of 100% cold wallet storage. Cold wallet storage has its own risk in any event. Potentially more risk for smaller holdings that hot wallets that are insured for theft, etc.

I'm not going to comment directly on your thesis as you've obviously started to research it. Much like the poster who posted his volatility trades and methodology, I'd ask you to post updates becuase what you are proposing might be of interest to me later on.

Updates on my election night trades. BITX long puts getting crushed, but long calls are mostly closed and incredibly profitable. The puts were basically a hedge. Physical holdings obviously doing great, but not adding until we see a significant pull back. Again, my cost basis on BTC is $22,000 which has been averaged up since the $1,000's, so very difficult for me to want to average up more. Even though long term this is probably the correct call.