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Started By
Message
re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:40 am to tenderfoot tigah
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:40 am to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
I don't think Solana will retire anyone new this cycle unless they are already very close to retirement.
It won't retire me, but it's not far from paying for a new addition to my house. The time to buy SOL was post-ftx.
0
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:44 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:It does. What I’ve noticed is that the S&P is your baseline correlation with the prevailing news/sentiment, the Nasdaq operates as a 2x leveraged correlation to the same sentiment, the SMH is your third level of leveraged correlation and Bitcoin is the fourth level. You could make an argument that alts are the last level.
I'm essentially copying your volatility trade, but I'm trying to factor in some variables due to macro economic events. As far as I can tell, BTC pricing seems to react to these events in a similar fashion manner as equities do.
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 11:48 am
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:55 am to beaverfever
SMH stands for VanEck Semiconductor ETF?
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:05 pm to Iowa Golfer
Yep.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 2:48 pm to beaverfever
Other than the fact that I sold my MSTR in order to buy more BTC, I’m confused why Microstrategy is boat racing BTC over the last month or so. If anything I thought the IBIT options were supposed to take some of the luster off MSTR.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Saylor and think he’s a genius, I’m just wondering why the performance spread is suddenly increasing when BTC has essentially been dormant for 6 months.
As an aside, why the hell has nobody copied his strategy yet? As soon as you get corporate or government buy in, the game is over and Bitcoin is the winner.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Saylor and think he’s a genius, I’m just wondering why the performance spread is suddenly increasing when BTC has essentially been dormant for 6 months.
As an aside, why the hell has nobody copied his strategy yet? As soon as you get corporate or government buy in, the game is over and Bitcoin is the winner.
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 10/4/24 at 8:12 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
I'm essentially copying your volatility trade, but I'm trying to factor in some variables due to macro economic events. As far as I can tell, BTC pricing seems to react to these events in a similar fashion manner as equities do.
I predict that you will do better than I do with my strategy. I just trade on Bitcoin's current price and spend almost zero time paying attention to news and charts. I tried trading on news before, but it didn't seem to help much for me as news was as volatile as Bitcoin's price. So now, as an early retiree I am just doing whatever I want and making trades when I get a chance. I'm still pretty distracted right now but I have a couple of open trades that I will reverse for more BITO shares when the time comes. It's actually my favorite way to trade. I spend little time on it, enjoy my hobbies, etc, all the while knowing that I will profit on my strategy just about every month.
Posted on 10/5/24 at 1:29 pm to 98eagle
Really appreciate you bringing this up in this thread. Started doing this trade 2 months ago but I have been looking for big drops to purchase BITX (atleast 7-8%). Been trading between ARKB and BITX and back to ARKB and tracking shares gained per cycle. (I chose ARKB for fees and price closes reflects bitcoin’s price so makes numbers easier for me to track).
I ve been selling once price is nearing a previous high and getting back into ARKB. I’ve paid close attention to bitcoin price action for 4-5 years and finally feel comfortable trading this way. So far through 2 cycles of this trade I’ve made 18% increase in shares of ARKB and in 3rd cycle of the trade now. Looking for an exit back to ARKB once bitcoin hits 65k. My typical hold time has been 2-3 weeks and don’t want to hold BITX much longer due to decay and market volatility. For anyone else who has been paying attention to this I won’t be doing this trade as aggressively once we get closer to 90k bitcoin but for now and where we are with the bitcoin cycle it’s been an easy way to increase share count.
I ve been selling once price is nearing a previous high and getting back into ARKB. I’ve paid close attention to bitcoin price action for 4-5 years and finally feel comfortable trading this way. So far through 2 cycles of this trade I’ve made 18% increase in shares of ARKB and in 3rd cycle of the trade now. Looking for an exit back to ARKB once bitcoin hits 65k. My typical hold time has been 2-3 weeks and don’t want to hold BITX much longer due to decay and market volatility. For anyone else who has been paying attention to this I won’t be doing this trade as aggressively once we get closer to 90k bitcoin but for now and where we are with the bitcoin cycle it’s been an easy way to increase share count.
Posted on 10/5/24 at 2:45 pm to lsutiger266
quote:
So far through 2 cycles of this trade I’ve made 18% increase in shares of ARKB and in 3rd cycle of the trade now.
That's great to hear your gains so far and that you are using ArkB as your 1X part of your trades. If you kept your gains in ARKB shares and Bitcoin takes off, those 18% gains will just be amplified.
Back in April and May, Bitcoin had larger amplitude price swings and I was trading on larger pullbacks like you have been doing. Then June had low amplitude pullbacks and I was missing out on some trades. So I started trading on lower pullbacks.
Its really hard to gauge how far Bitcoin will pullback as it's pretty unpredictable. When Bitcoin was at $65K just recently, I initiated one of my trades just at $62.5K. I would have traded a couple of days earlier but it was the day before BITO's ex-dividend date. I would have traded that day when Bitcoin was around $64K, but my greed for the dividend made me wait and lucky for me Bitcoin had dropped further. Sometimes I have delayed a new trade waiting on BITO's ex-dividend date and Bitcoin recovers and I miss a trade.
In my mindset, I don't mind missing tops and bottoms. When I initiate a new trade to buy BITX and then Bitcoin drops a good bit further, or if I reverse a trade and buy BITO and Bitcoin climbs higher, it doesn't bother me that I could have made more. My goal is to open and reverse as many trades as I can each month. Some make more and some make less. It's just nice to know that I can capitalize on this strategy. I feel I can count on Bitcoin volatility and feel fortunate that there are easy to trade 1X and 2X Bitcoin related ETFs to arbitrage trade the volatility.
This post was edited on 10/5/24 at 7:42 pm
Posted on 10/5/24 at 5:58 pm to TigerTatorTots
I think that used to be the case but as adoption has grown it’s respecting technicals a bit more. Here’s the cup and handle pattern I have been mentioning. 
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:05 pm to thatguy777
Running up overnight a bit. Good for my short term volatility trade.
So tough for me to buy physical BTC with my average cost being $22K, but I've been averaging up, just not sure now is the right time. Long term it probably is, but still tough to do as I have some BTC under $1K.
So tough for me to buy physical BTC with my average cost being $22K, but I've been averaging up, just not sure now is the right time. Long term it probably is, but still tough to do as I have some BTC under $1K.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:51 pm to Iowa Golfer
I have a hard time not seeing it go to at least 100k+ in the next 6 months or so. It just depends on your timeframe and strategy. If you are very long term then you will likely see prices better than today, but if you are willing to make a 6 month trade, then part with your BTC, to hopefully buy back at a lower price down the road it may be worth it. All about your plan. Doing your BITX and BITO trade may fill the void for the shorter term stuff though.
Personally I trade options a good bit and am positioned for an upside move over the next several months. Been buying BTC and ETH since 2017 and have convinced myself to sell if it plays out like I think over the next several months, to hopefully buy back at lower prices down the road. Ready to call it this time around if it works out.
Personally I trade options a good bit and am positioned for an upside move over the next several months. Been buying BTC and ETH since 2017 and have convinced myself to sell if it plays out like I think over the next several months, to hopefully buy back at lower prices down the road. Ready to call it this time around if it works out.
This post was edited on 10/6/24 at 10:56 pm
Posted on 10/7/24 at 6:24 am to thatguy777
Equity options or future's options?
Posted on 10/7/24 at 7:25 am to Iowa Golfer
Equity. I have never traded options on futures.
Posted on 10/7/24 at 9:01 am to thatguy777
Posted on 10/7/24 at 10:39 am to boomtown143
Screw that dude and Robinhood
Posted on 10/7/24 at 11:56 am to METAL
quote:
Screw that dude and Robinhood
My thoughts, too. Terrible choice.
Posted on 10/11/24 at 5:50 am to BottomlandBrew
Posted on 10/11/24 at 6:50 am to Iowa Golfer
Without looking into it too much, this feels like an unprecedented period of consolidation in BTC. Range bound trading for the better part of 7 months. 2020 was somewhat similar but that range was +/- 50% or more, not +/- 25% like it has been since February.
This post was edited on 10/11/24 at 6:51 am
Posted on 10/11/24 at 10:07 am to slackster
Someone convince me not to put everything I have into MSTX each morning before selling at lunch
Posted on 10/14/24 at 9:23 am to thatguy777
Not a technical guy at all, but breaking $65 this morning if it holds is fairly significant. I think the next resistance levels are $66K & $68K. Support is at $60K, $58K and $57K.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 9:24 am
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