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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 3/28/24 at 1:02 pm to Ron Cheramie
Posted on 3/28/24 at 1:02 pm to Ron Cheramie
Are we buying FET at $3.00 +?
1
Posted on 3/28/24 at 1:27 pm to LSUTiger23
quote:
Are we buying FET at $3.00 +?
Yes sir. I am going to reevaluate at $10
Posted on 3/28/24 at 1:30 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
In hindsight, buying dodge under .10 was so so obvious. just buy and wait for the next pump lol
I got left holding the bag three years ago but kept most all I had (almost 900 coins… not a huge amount but enough for a novice like myself) that I had bought at .04-.09 before the pandemic hit. Glad to see it get a breath of life the past few days.
This post was edited on 3/28/24 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 3/29/24 at 1:16 pm to bayoubengals88
LedgerX used to physically settle some futures and options.
They are no longer listing physically settled derivatives after June 28, 2024 expiry.
I'm not sure which regulated exchanges physically settle now.
For those that like to sell puts to lower their cost of entry into BTC (or ETH), or who like to generate income by selling covered calls, or who like to trade around / hedge their physical crypto, I'd be interested in your suggestions.
I haven't been on the board much, but y recent news is I sold all of my ETH, and going forward I plan to just own BTC. I have some various other stuff, but not a lot.
They are no longer listing physically settled derivatives after June 28, 2024 expiry.
I'm not sure which regulated exchanges physically settle now.
For those that like to sell puts to lower their cost of entry into BTC (or ETH), or who like to generate income by selling covered calls, or who like to trade around / hedge their physical crypto, I'd be interested in your suggestions.
I haven't been on the board much, but y recent news is I sold all of my ETH, and going forward I plan to just own BTC. I have some various other stuff, but not a lot.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 1:40 pm to Iowa Golfer
I have been playing MARA by doing CC's and buy to open cash covered PUT's. Recently started doing the same with CLSK. MARA I am way ahead mainly because I hav been doing it for a while. Currently hav 1000 shares of MARA with cost basis below $9. CLSK I only have 100 shares and have been sell to open CC and PUTs and my cost basis is below $15. Premiums have added to my performance and it has worked out really well. I started slowly and have been slowly increasing. They are not actually BTC but I was more comfortable dealing with it this way. Also recently started dabbling with IBIT but have started real slow.
This post was edited on 3/29/24 at 1:43 pm
Posted on 3/29/24 at 2:07 pm to jerryc436
I get it. I had $25K calls on BTC and that settled physical BTC. I settled the ETH in cash, and sold the physical ETH. I haven't really looked into BTC stocks, or miners. I should as some of them have a lot of physical BTC on their books.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 2:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
I hope to do a lot more on the BTC ETF's but my Vanguard account does not allow it yet. May have to look into switching to Schwab.
Posted on 3/29/24 at 9:25 pm to jerryc436
quote:
I hope to do a lot more on the BTC ETF's but my Vanguard account does not allow it yet. May have to look into switching to Schwab.
This is not investment advice and is just information that I have collectively read.
Just wanted to say that since you said you hope to do a lot more on the BTC ETF's, you might want to do that soon before the big hedge funds, pension funds, investment banks, sovereign wealth funds and other big asset management companies finish their due diligence on the new ETFs which will be happening within the next several weeks and months.
These behemoth wealth managers have $100 trillion in assets under management. Once their due diligence is completed and their professional advisors get access to trading the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, if they only advised and collectively convinced their clients to have 1% allocation to the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, that would be $1 trillion dollars of demand pressure on Bitcoin. However 2.5% allocation is a number being predicted. That would be an astronomical $2.5 trillion dollars worth of buying pressure on Bitcoin. Compare that to the Spot ETFs. They (BlackRock, Fidelity etc) currently have only $12 Billion in assets under management in their ETFs. Although very impressive and already impactful to Bitcoin, that's only a drop in bucket compared to the likely tidal wave coming.
Here's just one article from Crypto News on this topic.
This post was edited on 3/29/24 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 3/29/24 at 11:36 pm to Ron Cheramie
Anyone here have a bag of Cardano? I was big into last cycle, and got back in avg cost .54, just hoping it can hit $3 again like last cycle ????????
Posted on 3/30/24 at 5:01 am to iwyLSUiwy
He's right.
Posted on 3/31/24 at 7:58 pm to TSLG
Highest ever weekly close. Highest ever monthly close. Highest ever quarterly close. Let's ride.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:19 am to 98eagle
I am following my strategy again. I just sold a lot of FBTC and used those funds to buy BTFX when Bitcoin was right at $65K. I will sell that same amount of BTFX and repurchase FBTC when Bitcoin surpasses $71K no matter when that happens. It's like a nice big free dividend. I really like this volatility.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 9:38 am to 98eagle
I may follow you into this trade with some play money.
If Bitcoin goes up 10% but takes 2 months to get there, what is the perentage increaase in the levered play like btfx?
If Bitcoin goes up 10% but takes 2 months to get there, what is the perentage increaase in the levered play like btfx?
Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:16 am to I Love Bama
BITX, BTFX and the brand new ProShares BITU are all leveraged 2X derivatives. They all track Bitcoin at 2X whatever Bitcoin does.
On pullbacks I sell some of a Spot ETF and buy one of these 2X derivatives. Then when Bitcoin recovers, I reverse the trade. It's like free money once Bitcoin gets back to where it was and I reverse the trade. It's a volatility play. Why ride the rollercoaster when you can profit off of it.
On pullbacks I sell some of a Spot ETF and buy one of these 2X derivatives. Then when Bitcoin recovers, I reverse the trade. It's like free money once Bitcoin gets back to where it was and I reverse the trade. It's a volatility play. Why ride the rollercoaster when you can profit off of it.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 10:23 am
Posted on 4/2/24 at 10:23 am to 98eagle
I get that part, but there is a time decay on levered products, right?
So what is the risk reward in comparison to just trading spot?
30%?
So what is the risk reward in comparison to just trading spot?
30%?
Posted on 4/2/24 at 1:42 pm to iwyLSUiwy
quote:
I've heard that before.
Maybe you're right and I hope you're right because even selling half, if it shoots back up to .70, I'll be a happy camper. But, it's constantly up and down, I personally don't see it consistently staying .20+.
Follow your plan man. Don’t listen to these people, they think everything is never going back down to whatever price
Posted on 4/2/24 at 2:17 pm to I Love Bama
Time decay and if they hold futures, and bunch of other concerns. In order for the trade to work it almost always needs to be short term. Levered products are for short term trades. Products that track price by holding futures, or possibly even an index, need to have those futures constantly rolled at expiry.
I'd not suggest it for most people. I used to do this in natural gas. Anyway, what I trade is, or at least was as long as it's prior to the dates I gave above, settle in physical commodity. e.g BTC.
I would think the better way to hedge and/or trade around what you own would be options, but that's not for everyone either.
Either way, except in rare insurances, you'd have a maximum loss, which would be the amount of the trade and commission. Without looking into what these levered product hold to track the prices of BTC, I'd say more risk with these as I'm betting at least some of them use future's contracts to track the price. You'd have tow things working against you.
All this said, I make passive income on my underlying assets, and I do trade some, so to each their own. When I do it on LedgerX, again prior to them settling in cash, it was a regulated exchanges so I didn't have counterparty risk.
I'm still open to someone's input on any exchanges I can trade options and futures where they settle in BTC instead of cash. Regulated so my counterparty isn't a pot head sitting in his basement. If it's regulated and he defaults, the exchange guarantees the counter party, not me.
Some smart guys on here and in other threads. I don't really want to ask in the other threads becuase I don't want to hear about who has the most money, Caitlin Clark is a bitch, and Angel is a good conservative southerner, etc. At least in this thread everyone is pretty down to earth and actually owns BTC.
I'd not suggest it for most people. I used to do this in natural gas. Anyway, what I trade is, or at least was as long as it's prior to the dates I gave above, settle in physical commodity. e.g BTC.
I would think the better way to hedge and/or trade around what you own would be options, but that's not for everyone either.
Either way, except in rare insurances, you'd have a maximum loss, which would be the amount of the trade and commission. Without looking into what these levered product hold to track the prices of BTC, I'd say more risk with these as I'm betting at least some of them use future's contracts to track the price. You'd have tow things working against you.
All this said, I make passive income on my underlying assets, and I do trade some, so to each their own. When I do it on LedgerX, again prior to them settling in cash, it was a regulated exchanges so I didn't have counterparty risk.
I'm still open to someone's input on any exchanges I can trade options and futures where they settle in BTC instead of cash. Regulated so my counterparty isn't a pot head sitting in his basement. If it's regulated and he defaults, the exchange guarantees the counter party, not me.
Some smart guys on here and in other threads. I don't really want to ask in the other threads becuase I don't want to hear about who has the most money, Caitlin Clark is a bitch, and Angel is a good conservative southerner, etc. At least in this thread everyone is pretty down to earth and actually owns BTC.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 3:25 pm to I Love Bama
I need to look at this closer for time decay, especially like in your question, if it took Bitcoin two months to recover. Everything I am doing so far is pretty quick recoveries, i.e, 2 weeks, 1 week, or less and I am not noticing any decay. Maybe a prolonged recovery in months might be an issue for decay. Also, if futures contracts expire even during a short recovery, I suppose that could be problematic to some extent.
I suppose there is a time decay but so far I am not seeing it or it is negligible. We are in a long term bull market this year into mid next year in my opinion. As long as Bitcoin basically goes up with volatility along the way, I think the decay is not an issue. If you were to hold these levered derivatives long term and Bitcoin was basically flat and trading sideways then yes, decay would be an issue.
Generally what I predict is Bitcoin climbing (with almost predictable dips and pullbacks and runs including some parabolic runs). I am trading in and out between the Spot ETFs and the 2X leveraged Bitcoin Derivatives. It currently is not taking Bitcoin long to recover from a $5K to $10K pullback, ie like only maybe a week. That could all change, but right now this is working for me pretty well.
Concerning trading spot ETFs between each other for arbitrage, that's seems like it would not make anywhere close to arbitrage between the Spot ETFs and derivatives.
As an example of what I am doing, if Bitcoin pulls back 5% and I make the trade and then Bitcoin recovers a week later to exactly where it was before the pullback and I could trade exactly at that amount, I am seeing like a 5% gain in my Spot ETF quantity. It is like there is zero decay. The problem is that it is impossible to trade at exactly a 5% pullback and an exact recovery point. I just look for a decent pullback, make the trade and then pick the Bitcoin price I want it to get back to and reverse the trade. So far it's working for me so I am going to continue doing it. Maybe I am getting lucky with the timing of futures contract expirations behind the scenes and perhaps my strategy has risks that I will eventually notice and possibly get burned by. Until then I will continue to trade in and out of the volatility.
I suppose there is a time decay but so far I am not seeing it or it is negligible. We are in a long term bull market this year into mid next year in my opinion. As long as Bitcoin basically goes up with volatility along the way, I think the decay is not an issue. If you were to hold these levered derivatives long term and Bitcoin was basically flat and trading sideways then yes, decay would be an issue.
Generally what I predict is Bitcoin climbing (with almost predictable dips and pullbacks and runs including some parabolic runs). I am trading in and out between the Spot ETFs and the 2X leveraged Bitcoin Derivatives. It currently is not taking Bitcoin long to recover from a $5K to $10K pullback, ie like only maybe a week. That could all change, but right now this is working for me pretty well.
Concerning trading spot ETFs between each other for arbitrage, that's seems like it would not make anywhere close to arbitrage between the Spot ETFs and derivatives.
As an example of what I am doing, if Bitcoin pulls back 5% and I make the trade and then Bitcoin recovers a week later to exactly where it was before the pullback and I could trade exactly at that amount, I am seeing like a 5% gain in my Spot ETF quantity. It is like there is zero decay. The problem is that it is impossible to trade at exactly a 5% pullback and an exact recovery point. I just look for a decent pullback, make the trade and then pick the Bitcoin price I want it to get back to and reverse the trade. So far it's working for me so I am going to continue doing it. Maybe I am getting lucky with the timing of futures contract expirations behind the scenes and perhaps my strategy has risks that I will eventually notice and possibly get burned by. Until then I will continue to trade in and out of the volatility.
This post was edited on 4/2/24 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:48 pm to 98eagle
As far as I can find out FBTC is a trust that tracks an index. But it does hold BTC. 4868.9895 BTC. Looking briefly it looks like they own stock in exchanges as well, and possibly, not sure, indirectly hold BTC this way. It's leveraged, so by definition it's subject to decay. It's not a note, so no note counter party risk. I don't know enough about exchange traded trusts to know if they would have counter party risk. If it is a true trust, taxation is going to be interesting.
Posted on 4/2/24 at 4:53 pm to Iowa Golfer
BTFX owns futures, so would be subject to continual rolling of forward contracts. Forward contracts might not be correct, I'd need to think through that, as well as contango and backwardation.
I didn't take the time to find out if it is a rust, note or what exactly it is.
It's leveraged, so subject to deterioration, as well as futures risk as noted above.
I didn't take the time to find out if it is a rust, note or what exactly it is.
It's leveraged, so subject to deterioration, as well as futures risk as noted above.
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