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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 2/10/24 at 8:57 am to 98eagle
Posted on 2/10/24 at 8:57 am to 98eagle
quote:If inflows continue yes. Would be unprecedented for inflows to continue at this pace though. They still should be high enough to be a greater impact than the halvening
Am I wrong, or do the ETFs appear that they will have significantly more impact on Bitcoin's price over the next two years?
0
Posted on 2/10/24 at 8:59 am to 98eagle
Good discussion. I’m thinking the etf will blunt some sell-pressure we would normally see.
I have nothing to go off of but my gut, but I’m thinking we see 2016-17 type jumps after halvening instead of what you would expect if you followed the pattern of reduced gains after every halvening due to how logarithms work.
That is to say, bitcoin will still stay within the “rainbow” range (IYKYK), but will hit the top of it instead of just 75% of it.
Recall everyone was expecting 100k last cycle- that’s because the rainbow graph was showing it was possible if the peak touched the top of the rainbow as it had in every other cycle. I think the etf allows us to touch the top of the rainbow next cycle.
I have nothing to go off of but my gut, but I’m thinking we see 2016-17 type jumps after halvening instead of what you would expect if you followed the pattern of reduced gains after every halvening due to how logarithms work.
That is to say, bitcoin will still stay within the “rainbow” range (IYKYK), but will hit the top of it instead of just 75% of it.
Recall everyone was expecting 100k last cycle- that’s because the rainbow graph was showing it was possible if the peak touched the top of the rainbow as it had in every other cycle. I think the etf allows us to touch the top of the rainbow next cycle.
Posted on 2/10/24 at 9:32 am to Hateradedrink
I don't think most people understand what is possible this cycle.
The ETF inflows have been some of the most successful in history.
After the halfening, Bitcoin supply coming online becomes less than gold.
We have rate cuts coming in the middle of the year
Can you guys imagine what happens if one single company in the S&P starts to copy Microstrategy or another country announces Bitcoin reserves like El Salvador?
Or when Blackrock starts their marketing campaign?
Or the media attention after we hit another all time high and the FOMO starts again EXCEPT this time they can buy in their 401k?
I would be shocked if we are not at all time highs by the end of the year with possible 100k Bitcoin.
The ETF inflows have been some of the most successful in history.
After the halfening, Bitcoin supply coming online becomes less than gold.
We have rate cuts coming in the middle of the year
Can you guys imagine what happens if one single company in the S&P starts to copy Microstrategy or another country announces Bitcoin reserves like El Salvador?
Or when Blackrock starts their marketing campaign?
Or the media attention after we hit another all time high and the FOMO starts again EXCEPT this time they can buy in their 401k?
I would be shocked if we are not at all time highs by the end of the year with possible 100k Bitcoin.
Posted on 2/10/24 at 9:07 pm to I Love Bama
We are hearing crickets from the normies. It wont be long before they are asking how to buy. We are easily surpassing 100k BTC this cycle. I'm not stopping my crypto purchases until retirement.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 8:34 am to tenderfoot tigah
Hey there , $20 Link
Posted on 2/11/24 at 8:46 am to I Love Bama
I agree with all of that but yet all of the bullishness is a top signal 
Posted on 2/11/24 at 8:51 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
I agree with all of that but yet all of the bullishness is a top signal
If you know how the crypto cycles work, this bull run is just about to start
when normies start talking about taking out loans to buy more crypto and quitting their jobs to go full time in crypto then it's time to run
This post was edited on 2/11/24 at 8:54 am
Posted on 2/11/24 at 9:20 am to umrebel2009
Yeah this was my first bear market, I came in at the top of '21. My body is ready
Posted on 2/11/24 at 9:37 am to Hulkklogan
quote:
I agree with all of that but yet all of the bullishness is a top signal
Check out google trends. We are not even at 25% of the search volume for Bitcoin as we were at the height of the last bull market.
Our next run will not be driven by retail. It's going to be scarcity coupled with institutional buyers.
At the level of maturity we have now, its crazy to me that people are not trying to get to at least one single bitcoin.
Posted on 2/11/24 at 10:18 am to I Love Bama
quote:
At the level of maturity we have now, its crazy to me that people are not trying to get to at least one single bitcoin.
Yeah. If your portfolio doesn’t have exposure to crypto right now, you hate money
Posted on 2/11/24 at 2:32 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Yeah. If your portfolio doesn’t have exposure to crypto right now, you hate money
Especially crypto as safe and secure as Bitcoin.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:38 am to tenderfoot tigah
ETF inflows appear to be accelerating. We’re pinging 50k again
I wonder if people are buying etfs to hold or sell in the wave.
I wonder if people are buying etfs to hold or sell in the wave.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:28 am to Hateradedrink
50k, gentlemen.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:29 am to BottomlandBrew
quote:
50k, gentlemen.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:45 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
I'm balls deep in 2025 and some 2026 calls for MARA, RIOT, CLSK, and CIFR. Needless to say the past 2 trading days have been quite amazing for the ole portfolio
Last time I felt this euphoric in the gains, the bottom fell out a week later
Posted on 2/12/24 at 1:30 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
Yeah. If your portfolio doesn’t have exposure to crypto right now, you hate money
I have exposure to crypto to the tune of about 2-3% of my portfolio, but this just isn’t true. Plenty of asset classes out there, and there are believers and non believers. Very, very few people have any real exposure to precious metals, for example. That’s the closest relative to a bitcoin position.
To clarify: there are lots of ways to make money and even the “safest” crypto is coming off of a 75% crash. The idea that people won’t adopt it en masse is understandable.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 2/12/24 at 3:07 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Last time I felt this euphoric in the gains, the bottom fell out a week later
Yup anytime I find myself screen capping my portfolio I know I’m screwed lol
Posted on 2/12/24 at 5:01 pm to slackster
I get what you’re saying but nah. Temporally speaking, if you have no exposure to crypto right now, you’re making a bad decision.
“Right now” as in before the next cycle takes off. There is nothing you can put your money in that’s going to perform better than blue chip cryptos within the next 365days ish.
“Right now” as in before the next cycle takes off. There is nothing you can put your money in that’s going to perform better than blue chip cryptos within the next 365days ish.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 5:02 pm to CE Tiger
95% of btc addresses are in profit right now. Pretty good local top signal.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:00 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
I don't think most people understand what is possible this cycle.
The ETF inflows have been some of the most successful in history.
After the halfening, Bitcoin supply coming online becomes less than gold.
We have rate cuts coming in the middle of the year
Can you guys imagine what happens if one single company in the S&P starts to copy Microstrategy or another country announces Bitcoin reserves like El Salvador?
Or when Blackrock starts their marketing campaign?
Or the media attention after we hit another all time high and the FOMO starts again EXCEPT this time they can buy in their 401k?
I would be shocked if we are not at all time highs by the end of the year with possible 100k Bitcoin.
Correct. Almost no one understands what is about to happen. The last cycle was cut in half by the China ban and further suppressed by sh1tcoin chicanery by the likes of SBF, Mashinsky etc... People shell shocked by that expecting diminishing returns are going to be blown away by the incoming supply shock that hasn't even begun.
Wall St hasn't started buying in size yet but they're still gobbling up huge multiples of daily supply. When it starts to go it is going to melt faces. It's also not understood that we're in the early stages of fiscal dominance and the question is when, not if, does the Fed lose control of the long end of the yield curve. When that happens all bets are off, these ETFs will siphon off small percentages of pension and insurance co tranches that have traditionally been dedicated to long dated treasuries.
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