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Posted on 7/23/10 at 1:51 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
$130 on stuff for a bbq/tailgate thing for kickball playoffs
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:17 pm to LSURussian
LINK ][LINK]
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:24 pm to The_Pistol
quote:
If you can predict the peaks and valleys, more power to you. Congrats.
All one has to do is spend a little time studying PE10 or read up on "Valuing Wall Street"/Q ratio to get an idea. PE10 > 25 is getting well into dicey territory. It's not like one goes from 80% equity to zero on that day, but changes can be made over time to reduce risk.
At the height of the tech blow out the market PE was close to 60 and deals were done taking public pre-revenue companies and if you weren't a tech company you were dead ---warning Will Robinson. Not much different than the Fed's easy money policy driving RE, lending, and the market more recently.
I have never claimed to be able to time the market, but when risk becomes elevated in the business cycle and the market buyer beware, that is not a difficult concept to apply to investing. I have never been completely out of equities in my investing span of 20 some odd years, but that day could come.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:24 pm to The_Pistol
quote:
That's the funny thing about investing. It's often very difficult to tell when something is overvalued. Even during the height of bubbles, the conventional wisdom will tell you that the valuation is reasonable. Then, the bubble bursts and it's painfully obvious that the conventional wisdom was very wrong (hindsight bias).
But that's not true at all. When the market was paying $600B for $4B of Cisco's earnings, the math simply never works. You should not be long Cisco at that point.
When the median house price in California is many multiples of what true affordability is, then you know not to buy houses at that price.
When high yield credit spreads are 180bps over treasuries and you know that the high yield issuers are more levered than they have ever been, you know not to buy high yield.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:27 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
Intangible payback period is ~18 hrs though.
Work that cash conversion cycle like a corporate finance PRO.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:28 pm to kfizzle85
quote:Is this you from the link you gave?
kfizzle85
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:29 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:
When high yield credit spreads are 180bps over treasuries and you know that the high yield issuers are more levered than they have ever been, you know not to buy high yield.
John Paulson agrees.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:32 pm to Tiger JJ
BRCM, I recall that stock being in the $20's circa 1998 or so as I was working on a deal and prohibited from buying. I think it peaked ~ $230/sh, and is trading today around $37. Wwwooooo. Could have been some splits, but I doubt it and am too lazy to look it up. Digital set top boxes, baby, and global high speed internet fiber for everyone. Man those were the crazy days too.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:38 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
I did just spend about $130 on stuff for a bbq/tailgate thing for kickball playoffs tomorrow though. Investment or consumption? Debatable IMHO.
As long as high quality beer is involved it is an investment, Busch lite = bad consumption item.
Kickball, slow pitch softball, it's all good. The mega loaded dude was saying when he was building his business, he was hiring engineers in the UK for $35k and having to pay US engineers 65k, he sees the US incomes dropping substantially. I don't know, but totally withdrawing stimulus is probably not the best course of action as us soft americans needing to maintain our posh living standards at all cost.
This post was edited on 7/23/10 at 2:40 pm
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:49 pm to LSURussian
No it is not, IDK if they post pictures on the website, but the post them on facebook.Posted on 7/25/10 at 11:24 pm to kfizzle85
fizz, I'm tired of you waiting to invest. Save 2k and let's get to work.
Posted on 7/26/10 at 8:18 am to RedStickBR
Getting to work (full time) soon will hopefully make that a reality.
Posted on 7/29/10 at 3:28 pm to tirebiter
Getting away from the rhetorical substance of the article, some of the sources it listed look really interesting, especially the $95 Triumph of the Optimists book (maybe I'll wait until a used version drops below $40 ). Thanks!
). Thanks! quote:
Easterling, E. in "Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles" examines secular bull and bear markets and how they interrelate with p/e ratios, dividends, GDP growth and inflation.
quote:
Fama and French (private paper, 2000) and Asness (Bubble Logic, 2000), looked at other valuation measures, including dividend payouts and the so-called Fed model, and reached similar conclusions about future equity premiums and returns. On August 21, 2001, the Wall Street Journal reported that, based on earnings as reported under GAAP, the S & P 500 actually finished the prior week with a p/e ratio of 36.7, higher than any other p/e previously recorded for the index, well above the 1929 peak, and 2.5 times the average historical p/e.
quote:
"Triumph of the Optimists", published in Spring 2002 by Dimson, Marsh, and Staunton, reviews the equity risk premium for 16 countries from 1900 through 2001. It is the most ambitious study of financial market returns done to date and was updated in 2008; see "Risk and Return" on the site.
quote:
Truman Clarke of DFA (Spring 2003) examined the probabilities that U.S. stocks will beat T-bills over various holding periods.
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