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re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:10 am to
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:10 am to
$7-9B guidance for next year

Imagine a stock going down when announcing a 7-9x increase in ARR in over 12 months....also announcing plans for 2.5x more power data centers
Posted by reds on reds on reds
Birmingham
Member since Sep 2013
4782 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:11 am to
Okay yeah I’m seeing on their website $3B over 5 years.

Also says they are putting in an at the market equity program for up to 25 million class A shares.
Not sure if the market will like the dilution.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23501 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:13 am to
META news is new.
7-9bn 2026 ARR is HUGE.
Up to 10% dilution was expected.

Better than expected EPS with a revenue miss shows they’ve been doing the right things.

Q4 revenue matters more as more capacity is coming online every day.
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:13 am to
quote:

Also says they are putting in an at the market equity program for up to 25 million class A shares.
Not sure if the market will like the dilution.


They sold out of fricking capacity

They need to raise capital to build out to 2.5GW, this is the best way to do it. This release is absolutely insane, except for the $10m Rev miss

If they had hit revenue, this shite would be $150, still should go up massively
This post was edited on 11/11/25 at 6:14 am
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23501 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:14 am to
And just a PSA:
8bn in 2026 ARR translates to 667mm in revenue for next December alone, which will surpass all of 2025 revenue.
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26966 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:18 am to
quote:

Listen to the con call...rumors of a $3B deal with them


When I saw the 7-9B ARR, I thought there must be another deal.

Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:22 am to
I was hoping for $5.5-6B, this $7-9B is absolutely insane. Seriously, this stock should be at $200
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26966 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:22 am to
>2.5 GW is huge. We thought 1 GW was good. This is crazy good.
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:26 am to
Seriously, that $10m rev miss is killing a monster announcement. $10m about to be a drop in the bucket. Hell, their ARR guidance is a $2B swing lol
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:35 am to
Hidden in this, says the contract with META could have been more but was limited by their capacity...HOLY shite

How the hell is this not sky rocketing
This post was edited on 11/11/25 at 6:36 am
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26966 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:36 am to
quote:

I was hoping for $5.5-6B, this $7-9B is absolutely insane. Seriously, this stock should be at $200


A week ago, I thought the stock would underperform, but spike to $140-150 during earnings and then drop to $125 and begin a steady climb. That was my negative outlook based on an earnings report that was nowhere near this positive.

Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:37 am to
Arkady needs to reassure that they have a true plan to build out capacity by end of 2026 ON TIME
Posted by reds on reds on reds
Birmingham
Member since Sep 2013
4782 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:39 am to
quote:

Nebius Group’s $3 billion deal with Meta takes sting out of soft Q3 results


LINK

Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26966 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:39 am to
quote:

Seriously, that $10m rev miss is killing a monster announcement. $10m about to be a drop in the bucket. Hell, their ARR guidance is a $2B swing lol


I dont think it's just the rev miss.

I think AI skeptics can't wrap their heads around why we're spending all of this money on AI.
Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12265 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:40 am to
we are battling the ultimate short sighted market focusing on immaterial
revenue miss - ultimately I think it will rewrite. The only question I have is will it be in time for my 11/21s lol probably not although I could not have imagined a better earnings release, growth prospects - I mean it's a wet dream
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
23501 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:46 am to
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:48 am to
quote:

I could not have imagined a better earnings release, growth prospects - I mean it's a wet dream


I never imagined a release we beat earnings by that much and announced such amazing guidance, with another huge deal....can't wrap my head around how this stock is not at ATH
Posted by Jax-Tiger
Vero Beach, FL
Member since Jan 2005
26966 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:49 am to
Same thing is happening to NBIS that happened to CRWV. A hyperfocus on one negative is overriding a lot of good news and the stock is tanking.

CRWV is down 10 bucks since the earnings report. Conventional wisdom is out the window.
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:51 am to
quote:


CRWV is down 10 bucks since the earnings report. Conventional wisdom is out the window.


They had a bunch of analyst downgrade them and/or lower PT....

That company is completely different and has no strategy. They even said it themselves on the earnings call
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26337 posts
Posted on 11/11/25 at 6:58 am to
quote:

This sums it up…


Yup. I imagine after this call here and when the market opens, we will see something big happen.
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