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re: My most recent stock market prediction
Posted on 7/16/10 at 12:11 pm to kfizzle85
Posted on 7/16/10 at 12:11 pm to kfizzle85
I feel like I was (intermediately) pretty right about the market reaction to bank reporting.
Today:
BAC: Marketwatch headline: "Transitional quarter for Bank of America
Dividends skew bottom line lower, but revenue drops as well — as do credit costs, yet again." LINK ][LINK]
Really marketwatch? Dividends skew bottom line lower? That's fricking T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E.
Citigroup's profit falls, but beats estimates LINK ][LINK]
GE profit rises 16% as GE Capital recovers LINK ][LINK]
I haven't looked at any of these in detail (meaning outside of the write-up).
Today:
BAC: Marketwatch headline: "Transitional quarter for Bank of America
Dividends skew bottom line lower, but revenue drops as well — as do credit costs, yet again." LINK ][LINK]
Really marketwatch? Dividends skew bottom line lower? That's fricking T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E.
Citigroup's profit falls, but beats estimates LINK ][LINK]
GE profit rises 16% as GE Capital recovers LINK ][LINK]
I haven't looked at any of these in detail (meaning outside of the write-up).
0
Posted on 7/23/10 at 1:40 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
My prediction: if you don't take profits by the end of next week you'll be kicking yourself.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 1:45 pm to LSURussian
I mean we're 5 points higher on the S&P than we were on the 15th. Not a sell off or anything, but not the earnings boost we've seen for the past 3 or 4 quarters either.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 1:49 pm to kfizzle85
quote:Key word = 'higher.'
I mean we're 5 points higher on the S&P than we were on the 15th.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:37 pm to LSURussian
Right it's now the "end of next week". Let's see what happens now that the economy will be back in the forefront.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:38 pm to RedStickBR
quote:Ok, DJ up 90 points.....
Right it's now the "end of next week".
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:40 pm to LSURussian
Right but we have to wait until next week to see if it would have been a good idea to take profit today Russian. You follow?Keep eating popcorn pal
This post was edited on 7/23/10 at 2:41 pm
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:44 pm to RedStickBR
Actually I'm eating chips and humus right now....
So, you're saying the market pulls back big next week?
So, you're saying the market pulls back big next week?
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:45 pm to LSURussian
In addition to your prediction of an extended stock market rally last year, didn't you also indicate that the rally would be a leading indicator of the economy coming out of recession? Have you changed your view on that?
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:53 pm to LSURussian
I'm eating chips and homemade ceviche right now, drinking an S.O.S., posting from my Evo, sitting in an 86 degree pool, watching my bbq. 
Posted on 7/23/10 at 2:54 pm to coolpapaboze
quote:Yes.
didn't you also indicate that the rally would be a leading indicator of the economy coming out of recession?
quote:Well, since the economy is no longer in a recession, I guess my answer would have to be no, I have not changed my view on that.
Have you changed your view on that?
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:02 pm to LSURussian
Yeah, you really nailed that one.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:08 pm to LSURussian
I hope not Russian, because I didn't put as much into cash as I'd have liked.
We did make and close above our prior high (1099 S&P 7/13), so that is very bullish technically.
And in May and June the market was down over 10% for that 2-month period. Do you realize that every single time since 2000 that the market has been down more than 10% over a 2-month period it has gone on to rally by an average of 20% in the next 2-4 months thereafter?
So there are definitely some positive developments.
But I think we pull back next week. I'll make a guess just for fun:
S&P closes next week between 1060-1070.
We did make and close above our prior high (1099 S&P 7/13), so that is very bullish technically.
And in May and June the market was down over 10% for that 2-month period. Do you realize that every single time since 2000 that the market has been down more than 10% over a 2-month period it has gone on to rally by an average of 20% in the next 2-4 months thereafter?
So there are definitely some positive developments.
But I think we pull back next week. I'll make a guess just for fun:
S&P closes next week between 1060-1070.
This post was edited on 7/23/10 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:13 pm to RedStickBR
quote:No, I didn't realize that. Once again the Money Talk Board proves its worth.
Do you realize that every single time since 2000 that the market has been down more than 10% over a 2-month period it has gone on to rally by an average of 20% in the next 2-4 months thereafter?
quote:I hope it doesn't happen next week. Besides, if I sold out all at once, it might lead to another 'flash crash' like we had on May 6....
because I didn't put as much into cash as I'd have liked.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:26 pm to LSURussian
quote:
No, I didn't realize that. Once again the Money Talk Board proves its worth.
Here's the article. Don't know where I got the 2-4 months from. I read it a while back and was going off of memory, which has proven to be off. It's rallied by an average of 20% in the following year 8 out of 8 times. Still a compelling reason to slowly start getting back in. But I think the next couple of weeks will have people selling off all the earnings rah rah.
LINK
quote:
I hope it doesn't happen next week. Besides, if I sold out all at once, it might lead to another 'flash crash' like we had on May 6....
I knew you had fat fingers! Oh wait, you meant your portfolio is BIGGG
This post was edited on 7/23/10 at 3:27 pm
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:28 pm to RedStickBR
quote:Maybe, but I'm still sticking to my longer range prediction that with government gridlock coming after the November elections, the market will be anticipating that and will do ok.
But I think the next couple of weeks will have people selling off all the earnings rah rah.
Posted on 7/23/10 at 3:35 pm to RedStickBR
quote:You were right the first time.....
I knew you had fat fingers! Oh wait, you meant your portfolio is BIGGG
Posted on 8/2/10 at 2:49 pm to RedStickBR
posted 7/23/10
It closed the week at 1101 +/-. It's up 24 points today at 1126 as I post this.
ETA:
quote:
I'll make a guess just for fun:
S&P closes next week between 1060-1070.
It closed the week at 1101 +/-. It's up 24 points today at 1126 as I post this.
ETA:
This post was edited on 8/2/10 at 2:54 pm
Posted on 8/2/10 at 3:17 pm to coolpapaboze
quote:
coolpapaboze
The secret to being an amazing analyst is a selective memory.
Even the geniuses at top tier money management firms can only get alpha plays right 51-53% of the time.
Posted on 8/2/10 at 4:50 pm to LSURussian
Hell of a move today. My guess was flat out wrong.
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