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Message
re: March 10 Jobs Report
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:46 am to FLObserver
Posted on 3/10/23 at 9:46 am to FLObserver
quote:
Love the down days when the same 4 guys are here to spread the fear. Dont believe most in here are saying a bull market is going to happen anytime soon but unlike you guys i dont think the bottom is going to fallout either. Funny didnt seen any of you guys in here for a while but market takes a downturn and here you are
I'm not very bullish on the market in the short term but I'm not trying to time the bottom either. Most stocks that I buy I intend to hold for a long time.
I have no problem buying large cap dividend payers right here and have a fair amount of certainty that they'll be higher in 10 yrs. I'm not buying many risky growth stocks right now though.
0
Posted on 3/10/23 at 10:48 am to saint tiger225
quote:
At least you rewatched the interview and saw Powell never said that.
To read between the lines (which is what I think Bama is doing, and what you have to do with JP sometimes when the answer is something he doesn't want to directly answer due to politics/markets/whatever), JP is basically saying Unemployment could indeed reach those levels. It sounds like he's hoping they don't, but won't be shocked if they do.
All that said, what's the purpose for your splitting the hairs so finely?
Posted on 3/10/23 at 11:15 am to Pendulum
quote:
It's amazing to me how clear Powell can be and then you listen to commentary an hour later, and you start to question whether everyone saw the same speech. Bull and bears both hear what they want to hear.
Powell: "Unemployment may need to increase for inflation to get to our 2% target"
Bear: omg he's going to bring up unemployment 100-200%, look at all the indicators rolling over, wtf are they doing.
Bull:may? He still thinks there's a soft landing out there, how tone deaf, these guys have no clue
Well i guess both of those would be bearish but the point still stands.
JP has been a bit gun shy about making concrete economic predictions ever since the "transitory" debacle. He's said that one of the signs the Fed is looking for (before pausing or pivoting on rate hikes) is a rise in Unemployment. When someone asks him if they are looking at a 7%-10% as a possibility and he doesn't even attempt to downplay it, that means they consider it a possibility (how much of one is anyone's guess, but that it exists as a possibility at all is something to note).
JP wants to have a soft landing, I don' see any way that's possible in this environment. Unemployment may have risen slightly, but Initial and Continued Jobless Claims remain fairly flat and job creation was still far too strong for the Fed to see what they are looking for. Current probability estimates are .5 increase this month and at least .25 in May.
Maybe the government's ending of the extra COVID benefits will help that out, but I'm skeptical as food and energy prices are still large parts of what's keeping inflation sticky (and outpacing wage growth).
Posted on 3/10/23 at 11:16 am to I Love Bama
quote:
I Love Bama
quote:
There is zero chance we are not entering a recession. ZERO.
You put off Rocket31 vibes, just in a different manner I suppose
Posted on 3/10/23 at 11:23 am to I Love Bama
I’m the only person that still works
Everybody else smokes weed all day and has an ebt card
That’s the job report. You’re welcome
Everybody else smokes weed all day and has an ebt card
That’s the job report. You’re welcome
Posted on 3/10/23 at 12:13 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
There is zero chance we are not entering a recession. ZERO.
But keep dollar cost averaging into your 401k
LMAO
And unless you're retiring in the next 10 years why wouldn't people keep doing that?
A lot of stocks were overpriced during 2020 because of the influx of cash and some companies leveraging the new COVID economy to their advantage, but nowadays if you run the fundamentals a lot of companies are trading around where they should be if not lower in some cases.
COVID and seeing what Elon did with Twitter caused companies like META to look in the mirror and change course for the better. They cut numbers and productivity went up. I think once commercial leases start running out you're going to see companies that can afford to do it significantly downsize their office space and focus on remote work which will save rent, utilities, and limit some of the cost of the perks some companies are giving office employees.
So you're going to have a bunch of well-oiled machines coming out of this thing and ready to run. IDK when that end is, but I'm not imminently retiring so I don't really care at this point.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 12:22 pm to I Love Bama
Yeah another month of cooked job growth numbers…
This post was edited on 3/10/23 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 3/10/23 at 12:26 pm to I Love Bama
I’m shocked all of the covid printed money resulted in inflation, shocked I tell you
Posted on 3/10/23 at 12:32 pm to LSURulzSEC
quote:
Yeah another month of cooked job growth numbers…
If they are being inflated to the level the zero hedge story indicates, the Fed may well end up causing the economy to over-correct.
Posted on 3/10/23 at 4:25 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
want to reiterate that Jpow has admitted time and time again that we can not hit 2% inflation without the unemployment rate hitting 7%-10%
Link?
Posted on 3/10/23 at 4:50 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
But I would REALLY love to hear the case for being a bull in this environment.
About 45% of the equity market participants have a single variable (do I have cash?) to make their investment decisions. Not to mention the remaining 55% that have to be invested at all times.
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