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Message
Lower Stock Prices Are The Fed's Goal
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:12 am
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:12 am
Interesting article I read this morning.
Fed members will not say it as bluntly as we do in our title. But they have a long-held belief that stock prices directly impact the economy and, therefore, inflation. Thus, in the Fed’s efforts to quell inflation, it makes sense that they are likely using their stock market lever, specifically lower stock prices, to help improve the efficacy of monetary policy.
Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for the Wealth Effect. His theory associates stock prices with the transmission of monetary policy to the economy.
In a speech entitled Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some Empirical Results Bernanke states:
The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices. Higher stock prices increase the wealth of households, prompting consumers to spend more–a result known as the wealth effect. Moreover, high stock prices effectively reduce the cost of capital for firms, stimulating increased capital investment. Increases in both types of spending–consumer spending and business spending–tend to stimulate the economy.
Bernanke argues that additional wealth resulting from stock market gains results in more household spending. While he doesn’t say it in this speech, the Wealth Effect also works in reverse!
LINK
Fed members will not say it as bluntly as we do in our title. But they have a long-held belief that stock prices directly impact the economy and, therefore, inflation. Thus, in the Fed’s efforts to quell inflation, it makes sense that they are likely using their stock market lever, specifically lower stock prices, to help improve the efficacy of monetary policy.
Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for the Wealth Effect. His theory associates stock prices with the transmission of monetary policy to the economy.
In a speech entitled Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some Empirical Results Bernanke states:
The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices. Higher stock prices increase the wealth of households, prompting consumers to spend more–a result known as the wealth effect. Moreover, high stock prices effectively reduce the cost of capital for firms, stimulating increased capital investment. Increases in both types of spending–consumer spending and business spending–tend to stimulate the economy.
Bernanke argues that additional wealth resulting from stock market gains results in more household spending. While he doesn’t say it in this speech, the Wealth Effect also works in reverse!
LINK
This post was edited on 1/11/23 at 9:15 am
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:30 am to ItzMe1972
The problem with government is that they are convinced they are smarter than business owners and the gen pop. The reality is they are far from it, and the market will use every tool in the box to maximize profitability regardless of the rules. This is why the ultra rich expose every rule available to pay as little tax as possible. . . Which everyone should do.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:41 am to ItzMe1972
Controlling the narrative is the Fed's goal because that's all they can do
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:50 am to ItzMe1972
quote:
they are likely using their stock market lever, specifically lower stock prices, to help improve the efficacy of monetary policy.
Then 2022 was a very successful year for the FED.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:01 am to wutangfinancial
Let’s call them exactly what they are:
A criminal organization
Counterfeiters
Skimmers
Their job is to separate average folks from their money and give to the Wall St. banks, investment houses and the rest of their criminal friends.
Full stop
A criminal organization
Counterfeiters
Skimmers
Their job is to separate average folks from their money and give to the Wall St. banks, investment houses and the rest of their criminal friends.
Full stop
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:28 am to ItzMe1972
The author just made that up.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 3:51 pm to ItzMe1972
The feds goal is to take everything you have and pass it along to israel bruh
If you catch my drift
If you catch my drift
Posted on 1/11/23 at 4:34 pm to ItzMe1972
If that was really the goal, they should talk to their friends in Congress and get rid of - or substantially limit - qualified divideds.
In tax history, the concept that corporate dividends are taxed favorably compared to corporate interest is relatively new.
The tax favored status of corprorate dividends absolutely has an impact on stock prices. Get rid of that and it dries up the market some, which will bring down prices.
In tax history, the concept that corporate dividends are taxed favorably compared to corporate interest is relatively new.
The tax favored status of corprorate dividends absolutely has an impact on stock prices. Get rid of that and it dries up the market some, which will bring down prices.
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:58 pm to ItzMe1972
If monthly core comes in low tomorrow, they will have no reason related to their dual mandate (inflation and employment) to raise any more than the .25 coming from the next meeting.
So...low core monthly reading tomorrow (.2 or less/.3 probably ok) and they should hike once more and be done.
If the number is low tomorrow and they STILL insist on talking about more hikes in their statement, then it will be entirely due to trying to keep financial markets "down".
This is a whole lotta hypothetical because you are a few weeks early with the post. A few things have to happen before they would be shown to be fighting stocks and not inflation.
But I understand the frustration of the article because the rhetoric from their last meeting was unnecessarily hawkish.
ETA:
A high mc# in the morning (.4 or more) would likely cause a nasty drop in stocks that could run. BUT Biden just scheduled a press conference to talk about tackling inflation at 10am eastern shortly after CPI goes public. Hmmm. I read that as him knowing the number already and wanting to take credit for a low reading.
So...low core monthly reading tomorrow (.2 or less/.3 probably ok) and they should hike once more and be done.
If the number is low tomorrow and they STILL insist on talking about more hikes in their statement, then it will be entirely due to trying to keep financial markets "down".
This is a whole lotta hypothetical because you are a few weeks early with the post. A few things have to happen before they would be shown to be fighting stocks and not inflation.
But I understand the frustration of the article because the rhetoric from their last meeting was unnecessarily hawkish.
ETA:
A high mc# in the morning (.4 or more) would likely cause a nasty drop in stocks that could run. BUT Biden just scheduled a press conference to talk about tackling inflation at 10am eastern shortly after CPI goes public. Hmmm. I read that as him knowing the number already and wanting to take credit for a low reading.
This post was edited on 1/11/23 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 1/12/23 at 4:50 am to ItzMe1972
Wow. I wonder who on the MT has been saying that over and over again.
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:17 am to ItzMe1972
What is a new discovery for you has been priced in by many for over a year now, fwiw. Sometimes can be helpful to know where you stand in the info flow.
Posted on 1/12/23 at 9:26 am to JLivermore
quote:
helpful to know where you stand in the info flow.
This inconspicuous statement is actually HUGE.
By the time an event happens (CPI numbers come out for example) its already been traded for a week or more by people placing educated bets on what will happen.
When you don't get the reaction you would expect from an event, its because traders are done trading it and are preparing for whats to come.
Posted on 1/12/23 at 9:50 am to BarleyPop
quote:
BUT Biden just scheduled a press conference to talk about tackling inflation at 10am eastern shortly after CPI goes public. Hmmm. I read that as him knowing the number already and wanting to take credit for a low reading.
Update:
Biden at podium talking about inflation dropping. Who knew? And how could you have profited from it? ;)
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