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BitBuster
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2017
710 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
(LVVV)
quote:

...if this does get to $1.87, as someone linked earlier...


Yeah, I was the one that gave that link to Walletinvestor.com another poster said how laughable their predictions are. Don't let yourself get mentally price anchored to that number. I don't think anybody can reasonably predict a 52 week high with this stock. Strictly based on past performance, that number can be 8 cents.


Pendulum
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Jan 2009
3923 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
I'm holding some LVVV but god damn if you guys aren't scaring me off with all this winning the lottery talk.


rowbear1922
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2008
10330 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

Yeah, I was the one that gave that link to Walletinvestor.com another poster said how laughable their predictions are. Don't let yourself get mentally price anchored to that number. I don't think anybody can reasonably predict a 52 week high with this stock. Strictly based on past performance, that number can be 8 cents.


As much as I like Tigerrrdad's information, I am a little more skeptical that this stock will get to $1 by EOY 2019. I hope it does, but I don't see it going from 3 cents to $1 in 12 months. I hope I am wrong. I am also not looking for an overnight cash out. I mean for sure if it hits a certain point, yea I am out but I plan on sitting on this stock for a long time.


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TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

I'm holding some LVVV but god damn if you guys aren't scaring me off with all this winning the lottery talk.


It's not that far fetched. Look into the history of BUDZ, Aurora, CV Sciences, Tilray, Canopy Growth, Cronos, Hexo, Aphria, MariMed...There are numerous examples of cannabis stocks going from pennies to dollars, some in 6 weeks time. One company hit a $7 billion cap with zero revenues, another hit a $20+ billion cap while losing over $12 million last quarter. MariMed hit a billion cap with $1 million/month in revenues. And some have done it with similar share numbers, so our share count/public float won't hold us back.

On the first page of this thread I mentioned the $2 projection (which came from wallet investor) - as someone mentioned they have it $1.87 in a year, but they actually had it going over $2 then dropping a bit. I put zero faith in that projection because I don't see wallet investor as a legitimate source. But I don't base this on projections I've read, I base it on what other companies have done in the past and what the business plans are for LVVV.

They'll hit their smaller peaks like the .08 run when they got the Coachella permit and the .06 run when they got the state distribution license, but the real run will come when they are generating significant revenue. So look at the revenue possibilities, not a prediction by an obscure website. Right now they are fully operational at Coachella. They are basically just filling the pod right now, which is a 8'x40' (320 sq. ft.) storage container outfitted as a nursery. But that one pod can hold up to 16,000 clones, with a turnaround time of 3-4 weeks. Clone prices can run from $10-35 depending on the strain, whether you're selling to a large grower or a small shop, etc. But even at the lower end, that's already $150,000-200,000 in potential revenue every 3-4 weeks from just 320 sq. ft.. That Coachella site will expand immensely. They also have 4 greenhouses at that site, each at 3,600 sq. ft. - do the math. They could generate in the millions/month just off the Coachella property alone.

In a week they will likely get the permit for the Paso Robles nursery, and will then apply for the state cultivation license for that location. They have over 21,000 sq. ft. of space there - some will be used as a distribution hub (remember that they have a distribution license to generate revenue as well, which also allows them to utilize their 7x Pure Certification since everything distributed requires lab testing), but 10,000 sq. ft. of that will be a nursery. Again, do the math. They also have the option of another 25,000 sq. ft. building at that site as well.

Now keep in mind that they already have permit applications filed for at least 1 or 2 more other locations. Will they hit $1 this year? Maybe, maybe not. But within the next 1-2 years, it's much more than just a dream. It's a likelihood IF they can fully execute their gameplan. They also must find buyers for all of the clones they produce. Keep an eye on their ties to High Hampton, which is going to be a huge operation (just got 6 state licenses approved this week). The new CEO and COO are the guys from Mojave Jane, who we owned a stake in and had a letter of intent to buy outright. If we simply cut a deal with High Hampton to supply clones to them, that alone may cover most of what we produce.

This isn't a pipe dream by any means. Other companies have gone from pennies to dollars and more companies will - if LVVV executes the game plan effectively, they'll be one of them. That point could come based on speculation like it has for others, but more likely it will come when we have all of the things I mentioned above up and running and generating revenue in the millions/month.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 9:10 am


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
In regards to executing the game plan, Bill has been relatively silent the past few months. However, he has been on a roll lately with continuous twitter updates (and a new one this morning). All it takes is for him to make a post saying we finally generated some revenue of $150,000 the first month and the share price could jump to .10-.15. Or he could go silent again on us and we linger in the 3-4 cent range until much bigger things happen. It all depends on the execution. At the very least, the Q1 reports will be showing revenue and should jump us up significantly.

Once the licenses are in hand for Paso Robles, we could also get bought out by a bigger company for .25-.50/share. I actually hope that doesn't happen, because the potential here to do it on our own is significantly greater.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 9:12 am


BitBuster
LSU Fan
Lafayette
Member since Dec 2017
710 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
TigrrrDad, the thing that keeps me in LVVV is its sleeper status. Literally nobody is pumping the stock. The owners, current investors, random message board guys. Nobody is pumping it at all. There's no PR stunts, the CEO isn't doing talking tours, nothing, they're just going to work every day.

My biggest concern with LVVV is will they be able to sell anything? As another poster mentioned, there's a surplus in California. We need nationwide legalization to allow the stuff to cross state lines. To me, being able to export it is the biggest win. We're most likely years away from that.


Aubs10
Auburn Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Jan 2013
356 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
I was the one who was skeptical about LVVV. Instead of investing in it I decided on different weed stocks.

I have made an absolute killing this week. Invested in CGC (canopy growth) and I've gotten 35% returns in 3 days. In my opinion it's a fantastic company. Their revenue went from 18M to 95M in 1 quarter. They've expanded their operation internationally which is exactly what you need to secure more opportunities and they have the backing/$4B investment from Constellation Brands. That money sets them apart from everyone else. If they secure just 25% of the Canadian market their shares should rise to the 80's. Add in international and it's a different ballgame.

Additionally, Aphria just released their quarterly earnings on top of letting go their CEO. This was a major avoid for me 1 month ago due to all the bad press and poor management. I might consider dipping my toes into this. I predict $9.50 by end of Feb/March from them, based on their EPS growth and revenue growth this quarter.


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
By all accounts I've read, there is a shortage of clones. The surpluses talked about are generally due to the taxation/licensing issues that are keeping people from doing business, and those issues are gradually being ironed out. For every article I see about surpluses, I can also find one about shortages.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 9:18 am


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rowbear1922
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2008
10330 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

I have made an absolute killing this week. Invested in CGC (canopy growth)


I've got my feet in CGC as well. Its definitely the safer play but as another poster said earlier too, I am relatively young and the few thousands I have in LVVV will not hurt me long term at all if it goes bust, but would be worth a lot more if it does take off. I'm currently in on 4 different MJ stocks (CGC, LVVV, MDTR and NXTTF) with varying results so far. I truly think this space will be the next .com or crypto boom, even if not on those levels. Getting in to a few different now at reasonable prices means all you need is one to be a success and it'll more than make up if another is a bust. I don't see any of these as "winning the lotto", but should be able to greatly improve what I have currently.


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10
TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

I was the one who was skeptical about LVVV. Instead of investing in it I decided on different weed stocks.

I have made an absolute killing this week. Invested in CGC (canopy growth) and I've gotten 35% returns in 3 days.


It all depends on what your profit goals are. If you're looking for short term or gains up to 50% or more, the path to that with LVVV is buying the dips and flipping. People who bought in December easily saw 200% profits in the last week. But the big difference between LVVV and something like Canopy Growth is that CG has already hit its homerun. However, LVVV is poised to be one of those stocks that can get you a 5,000% return. You can't get that with any of the established companies. LVVV is more for the people who are looking for that next cannabis company that goes from pennies to dollars. There are plenty good cannabis stocks out there though for more reasonable profits.

ETA: Aubs, if I were you I'd just throw $500 at LVVV. You're unlikely to lose money in the next year, and you can still get a bunch of shares for that small amount. That was my original plan for LVVV, but I just don't see them failing so I went in bigger.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 9:35 am


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

To me, being able to export it is the biggest win. We're most likely years away from that.


LVVV is also working on tissue cultivation propagation, which one day may replace cloning. And tissue cultivation CAN cross state lines.


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Aubs10
Auburn Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Jan 2013
356 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
I always like reading your take Tigerrdad.

In my opinion, when investing in a risky stock like LVVV, you have to ask yourself if it's a calculated risk. For me, there are too many unknown variables in the company to adequately predict. In 1 month or 2 months when they start showing their revenue and it jumps to .08 or .12 then I will consider buying in. You don't always have to get in on the ground floor. If you get in at .12 you can still get those crazy returns and you'll know they have demand for their product. I just think the risk outweighs the return at this moment.

I hope I'm wrong and you all get rich :)

Also I don't believe CGC is done growing. I think they're just about to get started. Similar to AMZN. People sold at $200 because they didn't think it could get higher.


Aubs10
Auburn Fan
Atlanta, GA
Member since Jan 2013
356 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

ETA: Aubs, if I were you I'd just throw $500 at LVVV. You're unlikely to lose money in the next year, and you can still get a bunch of shares for that small amount. That was my original plan for LVVV, but I just don't see them failing so I went in bigger.


I actually did throw $500 at it. Not a serious investment. But I only did that because I trusted that the news on 1/18 will drive the price up. I plan on selling the day the news is announced though.


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Here’s what you should do - don’t just take the money and run after the Paso Robles permit. Sell that peak, then when it dips back down in a couple weeks buy it back. Then you have double the shares you started out with for your $500.

Here’s how you have to think about it - Canopy Growth isn’t done, but they have to hit $200/share to give you the same profit margin that LVVV does at 15 cents.

At these low prices the fluctuation between any given day’s high and low is usually at least 15%. You can build up your share count quickly by just flipping and rebuying on a day to day basis.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 10:01 am


auminer
USA Fan
In the Sierras, CA
Member since Feb 2009
196 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
I bought in @ .0155 average for close to 400,000 shares on the gamble.

I've been involved in the industry for a long time, black market and last 3+ years on the legal side.

The issues with the California industry I see is two fold.

First, the amount of CUPs issued in the state is insane to say the least.

Second, full implementation of the rules has yet to occur. Hell, I think we are on the fourth revision since they started.

The facility in Nevada has been operational for 3+ years and is generating positive revenue. The licenses are limited in the state unlike California. I believe there are more CUPs in force in the city of Sacramento (where we have one) than the entire state of Nevada.

Nevada testing is done in PPM where California is going to be PPB. The Nevada product will not pass California testing. The 438,000 sq ft of greenhouses in Salinas we operate will not pass testing at the moment. I've had to completely redesign the plans for the Sacramento 30,000 sq ft indoor which is now approaching the crazy price of 11k per light on the build out. Black market cost was around 3k per light. With the dip in price of product the ROI time frame gets pushed out further and further.

I do believe once full compliance is instituted there will be a lot of the players out of the game. It took close to a year in Nevada before we became profitable through trial and error.

My thoughts are that the small time players that do figure out the compliance game will be swallowed up by the big guys.


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
quote:

My thoughts are that the small time players that do figure out the compliance game will be swallowed up by the big guys


I agree. Compliance is a huge hurdle. LVVV is doing things right - they have their own proprietary 7x Pure certification system, they are pesticide free, and they aren’t producing until all licenses and permits are in hand. It’s a lot easier for the big companies to just scoop up someone who has already done all of this than it is to start from scratch. I just hope we’re far enough along when we do get bought out so that we see it reflected in the share price, as opposed to getting scooped up too early.

I’d much rather see some type of merger or just some big institutional money backing us.

quote:

I bought in @ .0155 average for close to 400,000 shares on the gamble


You lucky bastard.
That’s a great position to be in. Despite all of my optimism, this is very much a gamble - but if it were a sure thing, we wouldn’t be able to buy a few hundred thousand shares for a few thousand dollars.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 12:07 pm


Brettesaurus Rex
New Orleans Saints Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
35759 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Any thoughts on CRON? Seems like they've been climbing pretty steady. I know they have a huge investment from Marlboro and with the news they're going to stop producing cigarettes I wonder if they ramp up that side of things.


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Livewire is really the only cannabis stock (and in fact the only individual stock, period) that I follow closely. Any info I post about other cannabis stocks is merely information I learned indirectly while following Livewire. The best thing I know about CRON is that it went from a penny stock to over $12 in 2 years time. With Marlboro behind them though, I'm sure they'll continue an upward trend. Interesting to note that Cronos hit a billion $ market cap when they were generating revenue of around $500,000/month.

Today has been a weird day for Livewire in that it wasn't a crazy day at all - very low volume, almost all "buy" volume, and very little deviation. Probably the tightest, most consistent day since I've been following them. I was hoping it would continue dropping so I could grab some more, but maybe the sellers have dried up and people might be holding tight now awaiting next Friday's news.
This post was edited on 1/11 at 5:08 pm


SWLA92
LSU Fan
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
59 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Have you heard anymore news on the Uplisting?


TigrrrDad
Member since Oct 2016
3756 posts

re: Let’s talk weed stocks in this thread
Haven’t heard anything new yet.

Was trying to grab 50K today at .025 and some shares went that low early this morning, but I missed them by 10 minutes. Damn Nyquil...


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