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Started By
Message
re: July jobs report
Posted on 8/2/24 at 3:15 pm to SDVTiger
Posted on 8/2/24 at 3:15 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
They said if it reaches 4.2 they cut. We are at 4.3
I haven't said they wouldn't, what I've said is that Unemployment isn't their goal. Their goal is to bring inflation down to around 2%.
quote:
Inflation is below 2% on the core.
For determining inflation in this instance, Core is not what you want to look at (unless you can figure out a way for consumers to survive without food nor energy). Until we get the new numbers for July at the middle of the month, Inflation is still sitting at 3%.
Stop trying to read more/less into it than that, you're going to give yourself an aneurism.
They're going to cut .25% in September, as the numbers sit now. For them to cut more at the September meeting, we would need to see a massive drop in inflation for the July numbers and a massive spike in UE when August numbers come out prior to the September meeting.
1
Posted on 8/2/24 at 3:20 pm to Bard
quote:
what I've said is that Unemployment isn't their goal.
Thats exactly their goal if you listened to them
2% is already acheived
Posted on 8/2/24 at 3:30 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
2% is already acheived
No, it's not.
LINK
quote:
Thats exactly their goal if you listened to them
You need better listening skills. They have targeted Unemployment as an indicator for when they believe it's time to start cutting rates but the idea behind cutting rates isn't "we have to slow down Unemployment", it's "we need to throttle back so we don't overshoot our 2% inflation target by too much".
Posted on 8/2/24 at 3:36 pm to Bard
quote:
No, it's not.
The core it is
Stop with your chart
quote:
You need better listening skills
I disagree since thats exactly what they said
Posted on 8/2/24 at 7:17 pm to SDVTiger
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/2/24 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 8/3/24 at 7:52 am to SDVTiger
quote:
what I've said is that Unemployment isn't their goal.
Thats exactly their goal if you listened to them
Fed speak is opaque but my read is their primary desire is to reduce inflation but they were also tasked with considering the effects of policy on employment.
The needle that they probably can't achieve is controlling inflation while not causing significant harm to employment numbers. A major reason they aren't likely to succeed is the amount of spending from the legislative and executive branches.
Posted on 8/3/24 at 8:20 am to SDVTiger
quote:
We have lost over 2mil full time jobs
Link?
I believe you, I just want to have the citation handy.
Posted on 8/3/24 at 9:53 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
The real bad news is this number will be revised to even lower job growth in 30-45 days.
Posted on 8/3/24 at 12:10 pm to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
Link?
I believe you, I just want to have the citation handy.
I dont like fox but this was the first google article.
This was April
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/bidenomics-strikes-again-shocking-number-full-time-jobs-lost-over-past-5-months
quote:
The real bad news is this number will be revised to even lower job growth in 30-45 days
Yup and the birth/death was way overstated by like 100k so if honest tbis report showed job losses
This post was edited on 8/3/24 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 8/3/24 at 2:45 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Stop with your chart
Says the guy pointing to the Core chart.
quote:
I disagree since thats exactly what they said
You're not understanding why they are saying it, it's an important difference.
Posted on 8/3/24 at 3:52 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 8/3/24 at 7:50 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
Better buy a house now
Why do that with possible rate cuts coming and likelihood that home prices drop?
I’d wait. I feel buying now you’d risk a high interest rate plus losing equity in your home as homes are still overpriced in many areas
Posted on 8/4/24 at 11:44 am to deltaland
quote:
Why do that with possible rate cuts coming and likelihood that home prices drop?
If rates drop off the cut values will increase by 10% or more with buying frenzy
.5 mortgage drop equal 2.5mil.new buyers with a 1mil homes avaialble
Thats why
Posted on 8/4/24 at 1:42 pm to bayoutiger225
The Fed only controls overnight better known as the Fed Funds rate. All other interest rates are market driven, not controlled by the Fed. So, mortgage rates don’t follow the Fed Funds rate. Mortgage rates more closely follow the 10 Year US Treasury Note rate.
However, I do agree that I believe longer term Treasury rates will fall with an economy that is faltering. But it’s not directly driven by the Fed.
However, I do agree that I believe longer term Treasury rates will fall with an economy that is faltering. But it’s not directly driven by the Fed.
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