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Started By
Message
re: Jamie Dimon - Why Would He Say This
Posted on 10/11/22 at 6:46 am to Skippy1013
Posted on 10/11/22 at 6:46 am to Skippy1013
Cause a panic and buy low.
Basically a reverse pump and dump.
Basically a reverse pump and dump.
0
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:10 am to Skippy1013
What if it dropped 20% and he hadn’t said anything? Or worse, he had been telling people to buy the dips?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:37 am to Skippy1013
Could be he is concerned the democrats are going to do what they said they are going to do versus in his entire existence the powers always balanced and sanity won the day.
You have to remember markets have ruled the country for the most part of his life at the end of the day. People could pay lip service to the environment but at the end of the day the markets would take over. Today the democrats do not care about what makes sense.
What if he is seeing the energy crisis for what it is and that there will be no markets pulling us back to sanity.
You have to remember markets have ruled the country for the most part of his life at the end of the day. People could pay lip service to the environment but at the end of the day the markets would take over. Today the democrats do not care about what makes sense.
What if he is seeing the energy crisis for what it is and that there will be no markets pulling us back to sanity.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 10:09 am to leeman101
quote:
He is the top banker and seems like a straight shooter.
This. 1000%
Posted on 10/11/22 at 10:54 am to Skippy1013
quote:
what would motivate him to today say the S&P could drop another 20%?
Sound economic reasoning coupled with a decade and a half of experience leading one of the worlds largest banks.
Not that I like what he is saying, but the writing is on the wall folks.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 10:56 am to fjlee90
He was very non committal when he said it. I don't think he necessarily believes we are going there.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 12:12 pm to jimjackandjose
quote:
Also, don’t be shocked we see a bull run to near highs if fed says they are pausing
Use the correct name. It's Manassas.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 12:35 pm to Skippy1013
quote:Well yeah. That’s pretty much what “could” indicates (although it’s probably not pure speculation).
He does not know, it’s pure speculation.
quote:
say the S&P could drop another 20%?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 4:40 pm to Skippy1013
We haven't yet started to feel the real pain of a recession.
No major job losses yet, no major corporate shutdowns, etc.
If those happen... another 20% drop is very possible.
No major job losses yet, no major corporate shutdowns, etc.
If those happen... another 20% drop is very possible.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 5:04 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
I have seen market crashes, and this has been the most timid, where people still go and buy the dips. Are you serious? In real crashes, the Fed cuts the margin of broker accounts. Yep. In real crashes, markets go up and down in a single day, 700 to 1000 points. That's real volatility. We have yet to reach a point where the machines of Wall Street throw in the towel. And I do know where that point will be. We have yet to lower earning estimates for most stocks. And I do know what happens when real earnings collapse. The Graham-Dodd equation has always been my guide to valuation. And interest rates are pathetically still negative. Look at JNK. Its still flying high. When it real crashes, that bond index crashes. The bond market is still floating up in the sky like a weather balloon. What we need is real interest rates to rise to Mt Everest and the 20 year bond is smashed to 50% below present levels.
I found this and think he is pretty accurate.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 6:56 pm to Skippy1013
Reality. The heavy hitters of the S&P have been holding it up and those are faltering. When/if their earnings start taking the recession hits, and we are in the beginnings of one, the index goes toonsis over the cliff.
What’s the over and under on companies that get ejected, from the S&P, before this deal is done? I’d bet it’s higher than the historical average by quite a bit.
What’s the over and under on companies that get ejected, from the S&P, before this deal is done? I’d bet it’s higher than the historical average by quite a bit.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:01 pm to DTRooster
You don’t think shitty earnings are already being considered?
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:07 pm to TDTOM
The historical average PE for the S&P is around 16. I understand it's been higher in recent times but that was also an era of near 0% interest rates.
At current levels it's still around 18 and that's not even taking into account earnings declines.
At current levels it's still around 18 and that's not even taking into account earnings declines.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:32 pm to TDTOM
No, I don’t. The bond market, the dollar, foreign markets, Putin, China, the fed, the charts, etc,etc says it ain’t. We’ll see how this shakes out but the majority of my cheese is still on the side.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:36 pm to Skippy1013
Of course he doesn’t know. Do not get the feeling he has an ego or wants attention.
Don’t know much about the guy other than I agree with the above from recent headlines/comments he has made. JPM is reporting this week- I’m taking it as an honest assessment of what he is seeing on his end. Like others have said, would you rather he say nothing? I don’t think the guy is out to get anyone. What he is saying tracks in my industry
quote:
He is the top banker and seems like a straight shooter.
Don’t know much about the guy other than I agree with the above from recent headlines/comments he has made. JPM is reporting this week- I’m taking it as an honest assessment of what he is seeing on his end. Like others have said, would you rather he say nothing? I don’t think the guy is out to get anyone. What he is saying tracks in my industry
Posted on 10/11/22 at 7:46 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
The historical average PE for the S&P is around 16. I understand it's been higher in recent times but that was also an era of near 0% interest rates. At current levels it's still around 18 and that's not even taking into account earnings declines.
You should consider using forward P/E instead of trailing P/E to make better comparisons.
S&P 500 had a PE of 120 when the market bottomed in 2009. Had a P/E of 30 when it bottomed in October 2002.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:21 pm to slackster
quote:yeah going into a worldwide depression with central banks battling each otherand countries across the globeat each other’s throats that’s what we need to do.
You should consider using forward P/E
Posted on 10/11/22 at 8:41 pm to DTRooster
quote:
yeah going into a worldwide depression with central banks battling each otherand countries across the globeat each other’s throats that’s what we need to do.
Come up with your own earnings for all I care, I’m just point out that trailing P/E is a terrible metric for trying to find a bottom.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 9:01 pm to TeaParty
quote:
That prediction takes us right at the Covid lows
I hate being that guy but Covid lows were ~2200 on ES.
20% down from now (3600 on ES) is 2800, not Covid lows.
Posted on 10/11/22 at 9:06 pm to slackster
quote:
Come up with your own earnings for all I care, I’m just point out that trailing P/E is a terrible metric for trying to find a bottom.
I'm not trying to find a bottom. It's a decent metric to judge how expensive the market is though. I think it says the market isn't significantly undervalued right here from a historical perspective.
I also think most of us expect to E part of the equation to decline. But sure, the market is forward looking and if we show signs of inflation cooling quickly or a Fed pivot we could have a big reversal.
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