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It’s Fed day; put your predictions here.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 7:59 am
Posted on 6/16/21 at 7:59 am
The Fed tries to have its cake and eat it too. They indicate they are ready to start talking about talking about tightening, but they hedge the hell of that sentiment and wrap it in very accommodative undertones. The dot plot indicates they expect to raise rates in 2023. If they mention tapering, they focus it on MBS first, before Treasuries. They show a bit more concern over recent inflation prints, but still indicate they thing it’s transitory.
Of course, I hope I’m wrong.
Of course, I hope I’m wrong.
6
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:10 am to RedStickBR
they can't taper or mention it and I doubt it's on jpows agenda on the year his term is up.
until we get full employment they are getting to let this thing run
if they stop QE, we have a lot more problems than what we are seeing with inflation
until we get full employment they are getting to let this thing run
if they stop QE, we have a lot more problems than what we are seeing with inflation
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:23 am to RedStickBR
They aren't gonna do shite. They will say that its transitory and that the employment data isn't where it needs to be.. blah blah blah. I still think they're going to have to taper and raise quicker than 2023, but they will likely mention something in Jackson Hole about talking of tapering. It will come sometime next year and the inflation trade goes on until we see $4-5 gas.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:29 am to Triple Bogey
I love your view. That’s what makes a market. I’ve seen quite the Now vs. J Hole debate out there. If they do something now, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts.
ETA; and by “do something,” I mean talk about talking about tapering.
The fact that is even a phrase tells you how dovish this Fed is.
ETA; and by “do something,” I mean talk about talking about tapering.
The fact that is even a phrase tells you how dovish this Fed is.This post was edited on 6/16/21 at 8:30 am
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:49 am to RedStickBR
They of course stand pat.
They tried to incrementally raise rates in 2018 and it blew up in their faces.
Imagine how much debt will be in the system the next time they try to raise rates / taper.
No, check that. Don’t. Because raising rates / tapering will never ever happen again in this current debt based economic system. They have no room left to wiggle out of the trap. They are ALL IN until something completely breaks.
They tried to incrementally raise rates in 2018 and it blew up in their faces.
Imagine how much debt will be in the system the next time they try to raise rates / taper.
No, check that. Don’t. Because raising rates / tapering will never ever happen again in this current debt based economic system. They have no room left to wiggle out of the trap. They are ALL IN until something completely breaks.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:52 am to rocket31
quote:
until we get full employment
What is considered full employment? Genuinely curious.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:57 am to skewbs
benchmark used to be February 2020 numbers
who knows if they'll change it
who knows if they'll change it
Posted on 6/16/21 at 8:59 am to RedStickBR
"Inflation is transitory" "No need to worry about inflation" "we may see higher than normal inflation for the near term"
aka bull fricking shite
aka bull fricking shite
This post was edited on 6/16/21 at 9:00 am
Posted on 6/16/21 at 9:00 am to RedStickBR
Transitory, accommodating, healing, inequities in labor market. Blah blah. Same shite. Basically Goldilocks gift to Wall Street like always.
Not complaining at the moment, but at some point they need to do it. You get the feeling if Trump were in office there’d be a different tone here and I don’t like the idea that they are punting until a likely republican administration when it’s clear rates need to go up now. Nothing can be done to disrupt the liberal joe agenda.
Not complaining at the moment, but at some point they need to do it. You get the feeling if Trump were in office there’d be a different tone here and I don’t like the idea that they are punting until a likely republican administration when it’s clear rates need to go up now. Nothing can be done to disrupt the liberal joe agenda.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 9:02 am to TigerDeBaiter
*YELLEN SAYS U.S. ECONOMY WELL ON THE WAY TO ROBUST RECOVERY
Posted on 6/16/21 at 9:03 am to TigerTatorTots
quote:
aka bull fricking shite
Absolutely.
The blow off top in the stock market will be a sight to behold right before the Fed breaks something.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 9:05 am to Hussss
Yellen: Now Is Fiscally Most Strategic Time to Make Long-Term Investments
Posted on 6/16/21 at 9:11 am to rocket31
Aka: “Let’s buy up everything we can before the world completely loses faith in our counterfeit operation we are running.”
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:02 pm to Hussss
No change to rates, Increased inflation forecast to 3.4%, gonna continue buying $120 billion/month.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:03 pm to Chucktown_Badger
Inflation forecast raised 1% but GDP forecast only raised 0.5%. And you have three more projecting a hike in 2022.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:09 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
Increased inflation forecast to 3.4%, gonna continue buying $120 billion/month.
hehe
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:12 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Inflation forecast raised 1% but GDP forecast only raised 0.5%.
"transitory"
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:21 pm to rocket31
The Federal Reserve is starting to change its tune. They are signaling higher inflation this year and faster rate hikes.
The Fed's big changes today =
3.4% inflation this year (prior forecast: 2.4%)
2 rate hikes in 2023 (prior was 0 hikes)
Unemployment 3.8% in 2022 (prior 3.9)
The Fed's big changes today =
3.4% inflation this year (prior forecast: 2.4%)
2 rate hikes in 2023 (prior was 0 hikes)
Unemployment 3.8% in 2022 (prior 3.9)
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:24 pm to boogiewoogie1978
Does the market ever react well to these fed meetings? Jesus.
Posted on 6/16/21 at 1:37 pm to Chucktown_Badger
"Joblessness continues to hit the service sector the hardest, and african americans and hispanics are the slowest to see gains in their employment"
I'm paraphrasing, but why do we think that is? Do we think that perhaps that is a sector that is generally lower wage, and perhaps the benefits they're receiving are more than they'd make if they went back to work?
Jesus Tapdancing Christ, it's not that hard to figure out.
ETA: He's also saying that they're seeing "significant hesitation to go back to jobs where their may be public interaction because of the virus." Give me a fricking break. Anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, the country is basically 100% open at this point. That excuse should be completely dismissed at this point. Get your arse a job.
ETA2: Clearly I'm getting triggered watching this
I'm paraphrasing, but why do we think that is? Do we think that perhaps that is a sector that is generally lower wage, and perhaps the benefits they're receiving are more than they'd make if they went back to work?
Jesus Tapdancing Christ, it's not that hard to figure out.
ETA: He's also saying that they're seeing "significant hesitation to go back to jobs where their may be public interaction because of the virus." Give me a fricking break. Anyone who wants a vaccine can get one, the country is basically 100% open at this point. That excuse should be completely dismissed at this point. Get your arse a job.
ETA2: Clearly I'm getting triggered watching this
This post was edited on 6/16/21 at 1:45 pm
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