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Message
re: Is it time to short NVDA ?
Posted on 2/15/24 at 10:37 am to go ta hell ole miss
Posted on 2/15/24 at 10:37 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Except NVDA is one of the largest revenue generating companies in the history of the US. CISCO grew revenue from $2 billion to $19 billion, but its stock surged 3800% and had a PE of 230+. NVDA started with a much more sound fundamental base. Nvidia’s GPUs inherently have shorter useful lives than Cisco’s networking gear, which reduces the likelihood of overbuilding. The CNBC talking head misses this point. Nvidia has a quasi-monopoly position in the AI space, allowing for very healthy margins.
This tech rally is so fundamentally different than 1999/2000 that anyone comparing the two is, so misguided or misinformed that it is comical. The companies on this run have well defined business models, massive revenue and massive profit.
You said that better than I did, I got 6 DVs for saying to ignore the comparison from 25 years ago.
0
Posted on 2/15/24 at 11:18 am to Gumbo Gary
quote:
NVDS is an easy way to short. 1.25 weighted short.
If you don’t mind me asking, would your plan be to buy this now (or just prior to earnings) and trade out post earnings if you’re banking on a miss… or are you looking to establish NVDS as more of a hold for some period of time?
Posted on 2/15/24 at 12:39 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
NVDS is an easy way to short. 1.25 weighted short.
If you don’t mind me asking, would your plan be to buy this now (or just prior to earnings) and trade out post earnings if you’re banking on a miss… or are you looking to establish NVDS as more of a hold for some period of time?
Shorted the last 2 days, in and out.
Made 3 percent yesterday, 2 percent today.
Don't have the nerve to just short and hold.
I won't have a position on earnings day.
I will just react to the earnings reaction.
If it screams higher I will short the rally.
If it melts down I will go long.
52 week low on NVDS is 17.17.
The last few days it has bounced off of the 17.30's when NVDA approaches its high
This post was edited on 2/15/24 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 2/15/24 at 1:04 pm to Gumbo Gary
Smooth trades. 
Posted on 2/15/24 at 1:33 pm to Gumbo Gary
quote:
Gumbo Gary
This is you in Vegas
Posted on 2/16/24 at 7:37 am to Gumbo Gary
Squawkbox just showed 2 new guidance forecasts.
850 and 1200.
850 and 1200.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 8:50 am to KWL85
quote:
Squawkbox just showed 2 new guidance forecasts.
850 and 1200.
NVDA has room to run. The release of Sora will be the next giant thing in AI
https://openai.com/sora
AI generated video is going to be a true game changer in so many different parts of the economy.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 9:06 am to KWL85
quote:
Squawkbox just showed 2 new guidance forecasts.
850 and 1200.
Shorted NVDA again this morning for a quick 3+ percent gain.
Shorting NVDA every day when it nears its high is like printing money.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 9:33 am to Gumbo Gary
quote:
Shorted NVDA again this morning for a quick 3+ percent gain.
Shorting NVDA every day when it nears its high is like printing money
Good luck day trading.
You know what else is cool, holding NVDA for a year and being up over 200%.
You should have listened and shorted SMCI though.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:03 am to Gumbo Gary
Nvidia is selling the shovels (GPUs) for the gold miners (AI Companies)
What happens when there is either a saturation of equipment (GPUs without any big advancement in newer hardware) or no more gold (AI profits) to be found?
What happens when there is either a saturation of equipment (GPUs without any big advancement in newer hardware) or no more gold (AI profits) to be found?
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:04 am to DarthRebel
quote:
You know what else is cool, holding NVDA for a year and being up over 200%.
200 percent a year ?
Well, if you're happy with that then good for you.
3 percent a day is over 700 percent a year.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:12 am to DVinBR
quote:
Nvidia is selling the shovels (GPUs) for the gold miners (AI Companies)
What happens when there is either a saturation of equipment (GPUs without any big advancement in newer hardware) or no more gold (AI profits) to be found?
Don't you understand that your facts, logic, & analysis are not welcome here ?
Only Cheerleaders are welcome here so either break out your pom poms or prepare to be attacked.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:26 am to DVinBR
quote:
Nvidia is selling the shovels (GPUs) for the gold miners (AI Companies) What happens when there is either a saturation of equipment (GPUs without any big advancement in newer hardware) or no more gold (AI profits) to be found?
Processing speeds will always be in demand, and semis have a long history of getting faster and faster every year.
I agree that things can and will slow down in the future, but a faster shovel will always be important.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:30 am to DVinBR
NVDA is going up because crypto cycle is ramping up, not just AI.
NVDA always goes bonkers in a crypto cycle and subsequently dumps.
You want to make money? Short the frick out of NVDA around December or January 25
NVDA always goes bonkers in a crypto cycle and subsequently dumps.
You want to make money? Short the frick out of NVDA around December or January 25
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:32 am to Gumbo Gary
quote:
Only Cheerleaders are welcome here so either break out your pom poms or prepare to be attacked.
Nah, all welcome. Nobody likes shorters though
. Good luck getting your 700%, trading every day.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:35 am to slackster
Nvidia hasn't made a large advancement in their GPUs in years now. Their 4000 series cards are huge power hogs in order to increase processing power. Their next lineup is their 4000 "Super" series . Jensen Huang made a comment a few years back that Moore's law is dead. I don't think it's dead but it has definitely slowed down.
. Jensen Huang made a comment a few years back that Moore's law is dead. I don't think it's dead but it has definitely slowed down.Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:50 am to DVinBR
quote:
Nvidia hasn't made a large advancement in their GPUs in years now.
Soon
https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-uses-ai-to-produce-its-ai-chips-faster-2024-2?op=1
quote:
Companies are vying for Nvidia's limited supply of GPUs — used to train and build AI products — as the AI sector booms. Now, the chip giant is using its own AI to make its chips faster in what appears to be an effort to keep up with the demand.
Nvidia has developed an AI system known as ChipNeMo that aims to speed up the production of its GPUs.
Designing GPUs can be labor-intensive. A chip typically takes close to 1,000 people to build, and each person needs to understand how different parts of the design process work together, Bryan Catanzaro, Nvidia's vice president of applied deep learning research, told The Wall Street Journal.
AI is going to evolve quicker now, we are just in the advanced stage of Narrow AI. Which is level 1.
quote:
Artificial intelligence (AI) can be categorized into various forms based on its functionality, approach, and application. Here are some common forms of AI:
Narrow AI (Weak AI): Narrow AI refers to AI systems that are designed and trained for specific tasks or domains. These systems excel at performing particular tasks within a limited context but lack general intelligence and cannot adapt to tasks outside their predefined scope. Examples include virtual assistants (e.g., Siri, Alexa), recommendation systems, and image recognition software.
General AI (Strong AI): General AI, also known as strong AI or AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), refers to AI systems with the ability to understand, learn, and apply intelligence across a wide range of tasks and contexts, similar to human intelligence. Achieving general AI is a long-term goal of AI research but has not been realized yet.
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI): Artificial superintelligence refers to AI systems that surpass human intelligence across all domains and activities. This concept is highly speculative and raises significant ethical, societal, and existential questions. Achieving artificial superintelligence remains a subject of debate and speculation within the AI community.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 10:53 am to DarthRebel
quote:
Now, the chip giant is using its own AI to make its chips faster in what appears to be an effort to keep up with the demand.
Make and build are two different things. They may be able to design them faster, but they don't produce the hardware.
They are at TSMC's mercy when it comes to actually producing the hardware. TSMC can not keep up with the demand of having so many customers.
Posted on 2/16/24 at 1:39 pm to Gumbo Gary
Their puts are a bit expensive for my blood but I don't think the current price will be sustained
Posted on 2/16/24 at 1:47 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
Make and build are two different things. They may be able to design them faster, but they don't produce the hardware.
True, the question is can AI decrease the time or build architecture.
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