re: Inflation Cooling with CPI report

PPI cooling. Inital jobless claims up


Starting to crack

Imagine if they were honest about the jobs numbers would love to see where unemployment would really be at

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Imagine if they were honest about the jobs numbers would love to see where unemployment would really be at

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Agreed. I generally try to give more weight to Initial and Continued claims rather than the Unemployment number but often they seem to tell the same story.

That said, over the last 2-3 months I've noticed an increasing number of people in various forums talking about how they are having trouble finding a job. It wasn't until recently that I realized I hadn't seen that many mentions of job-hunting difficulties since the Unemployment rate was in the 5% range. That makes me wonder if the numbers aren't being fudged or if reporting is more lagging than I thought (or both).

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Real unemployment is 7.4%

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Exactly. Powell even called out the BS yesterday so we will see next jobs numbers

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We don’t measure inflation cumulatively because it essentially always is increasing. The rate of change is all anyone on the Money Talk should consider as we’re forward looking here.

The cumulative change discussion is what we worry about at the dinner table in our households, but it tells us very little about what is to come.

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Correct. e.g. The price deck was up ~9% when trump was POTUS and "inflation was low".

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Gotta try to save Biden

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I always find these comments perplexing. The Fed is an autonomous agency chaired by a Republican. Has it ever occurred to anyone that Powell is doing a decent job taming inflation? He can't roll back the clock, but he can deliver a soft landing. FFS not everything is about the presidency.