re: How confident are you that Trump and his team know what they are doing with tariffs?

I made good money on market panic by buying calls.

I don't know if these tariffs are going to work the way Trump wants or whether he is just kicking over anthills and poking unfair traders with a stick.

I think Trump made an ugly mistake with Canada trolling Fidel Trudeau with Canada becoming a state. It probably handed the election to the "liberals" because the insult didn't just hit Fidel, but every Canadian. They are little sensitive about that to start with.

Our trade deficit with Canada is due to our energy imports in terms of oil and electric power. Without the energy imports, the imbalance vanishes.

quote:

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crash?
really?

I guess terminology (or hyperbole) is in the eyes of the issuer?

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I suppose we could quibble over terminology, but the S&P losing 10.5% in two days feels a bit crashy to me. Again, fortunately, Trump pulled his head out of his arse before we had to find out just how far down the bottom was. For context, here is a list of the five worst two day spans in S&P history:

Oct. 19, 1987
-24.6%

Oct. 20, 1987
-16.2%

Nov. 20, 2008
-12.4%

March 12, 2020
-13.9%

April 4, 2025
-10.5%

But I suppose if you want to hang your hat on "it's not really a crash because Trump pulled his head out of his arse before it could really constitute a crash", you do you. But being in the top five feels at least crash adjacent. Maybe mild to moderate crashiness?

quote:

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Milley, Tillerson, Pompeo, Wray


Wow. We definitely aren't going to agree.

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Rubio =/= Tillerson. Right out of the gate with his first appointment, to perhaps the most important position, with a unanimous Senate confirmation. Just the difference between these two selections tells you that Trump is operating from a much more experienced position.

So you need access to your maximum retirement savings on Day 1 of retirement? That’s sad.