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Message
re: Gurus - Where is the market going?
Posted on 2/5/10 at 11:29 am to kfizzle85
Posted on 2/5/10 at 11:29 am to kfizzle85
quote:
If there's any market that's in a bubble, to me, its fixed income (doesn't mean equities might be over-reaching right now either).
Agreed on both, but it doesn't look like there is anything in the near term that will allow for rate increases of any magnitude in most developed countries. I will be around 30% cash by the time this rental deal closes next week, the 30% fixed income I have was all purchased in a more opportunistic time, I couldn't see buying it now.
Is it time for this yet as it is Friday?
I am abstaining until Who Dat kick off, then it's on.
1
Posted on 2/5/10 at 12:33 pm to tirebiter
Agreed as well, which allows me to make the next point, which I couldn't figure out how to fit into the last post. I see the downside risk not necessarily as your traditional interest rate risk pressuring AAA (not BRK anymore) borrowers, but a fair value risk on high yielding stuff. IDK that the yield curve will collapse any time soon, but I do think that a correction of some kind is going to take HY issues down some. Although it is Friday, I have so much on my plate right now it doesn't feel like it. Like a 20k millionaire, I think I've probably over-extended myself a little this semester. 
Posted on 2/5/10 at 12:54 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
that a correction of some kind is going to take HY issues down some
Oh yeah, the defaults will be coming, I was amazed how co's were able to raise capital and/or extend debt over the last 9-months, timing was everything. I don't own HY - primarily short duration IG, T's, muni's or CD's. Then again, muni's could have their own set of issues as well.
Better to be busy than not, but could see where that would get old.
Posted on 2/5/10 at 1:07 pm to tirebiter
For sure, I'm not complaining, just rationalizing. 
I just keep Conan's going-away quote in mind:
"Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen."
I just keep Conan's going-away quote in mind: "Nobody in life gets exactly what they thought they were going to get. But if you work really hard and you're kind, amazing things will happen."
Posted on 2/5/10 at 3:23 pm to ANAKINSKY
quote:
I just went all cash, but I'll likely have to take the hit tommorrow on iternational markets. According to Rush, things are looking bad for the EURO, I can stay on the sides for a while.
you deserve to lose all your investments if you listen to a fricking political talking head for your financial advice. Posted on 2/9/10 at 12:43 am to TheHiddenFlask
RCII, my model showed $16.28 when I ran it last week
Posted on 2/9/10 at 10:22 am to Greenspan
quote:
RCII, my model showed $16.28 when I ran it last week
We had to do a research project on it for a CFA competition and it was really hard to create a model that didn't show it as a big sell.
There's a big DTL payoff this year that you need to strip off, so make sure you did that.
I hate the business model, the stock has never shown much profit potential, no dividends and very low capital gains, and I think Aaron's is the better company in the industry.
Posted on 2/9/10 at 12:09 pm to TheHiddenFlask
I made 50% on my portfolio since last March as I'm sure a lot of people did. transfered 100% over to government secure bonds gauranteed at 4% income 3 weeks ago. I figure if I don't make anything more than that this year then I'm still way ahead of average. Why get too greedy? safe to sit back and wait until unemployment drops because that's the only time we are going to see a somewhat stable market in the near future.
Posted on 2/9/10 at 12:19 pm to rtbtiger
quote:
I made 50% on my portfolio since last March as I'm sure a lot of people did. transfered 100% over to government secure bonds gauranteed at 4% income 3 weeks ago. I figure if I don't make anything more than that this year then I'm still way ahead of average. Why get too greedy? safe to sit back and wait until unemployment drops because that's the only time we are going to see a somewhat stable market in the near future.
What did your portfolio do before last March?
Posted on 2/9/10 at 7:25 pm to TheHiddenFlask
What are your initials? I know everybody that worked on that CFA challenge here at LSU and saw the finished product. Nice work
Posted on 2/9/10 at 9:14 pm to Greenspan
quote:
What are your initials?
Not JD (either of them) or LB.
quote:
Nice work
Thanks.
How do you know me?
Posted on 2/9/10 at 11:23 pm to TheHiddenFlask
Nevermind then, I thought you were the older of the the JDs but nevermind them. Grad student?
Posted on 2/9/10 at 11:44 pm to Greenspan
quote:
Nevermind then, I thought you were the older of the the JDs but nevermind them.
We have been best friends our entire college career, so if you are friends with him, we have probably met.
quote:
Grad student?
Yeah, MBA.
Posted on 2/10/10 at 12:23 pm to LSURussian
read N N Taleb's books.
"Up and down and up and down, repeat as necessary"
What you really want to know is
HOW DO I MAKE MONEY FROM PREDICTING THE PATTERN?
Read N N Taleb's books. Fun. Educational. Fun.
Black Swan is easier than his first one.
PS> no one can predict patterns. The computer programs which claim to map to past patterns as a predictor of present behavior are delusional. Read the prospectus' from Goldman Sachs.
Past performance is no predictor.
And no one knows what's next. The variables include:
Sarah winning and getting us into the next land war with Russia over South Ossetia, and ...
earthquakes in Hollywood
and ....
volcanoes in Seattle
and the end of the banana crop due to some disease in central america...
You cant make this stuff up.
"Up and down and up and down, repeat as necessary"
What you really want to know is
HOW DO I MAKE MONEY FROM PREDICTING THE PATTERN?
Read N N Taleb's books. Fun. Educational. Fun.
Black Swan is easier than his first one.
PS> no one can predict patterns. The computer programs which claim to map to past patterns as a predictor of present behavior are delusional. Read the prospectus' from Goldman Sachs.
Past performance is no predictor.
And no one knows what's next. The variables include:
Sarah winning and getting us into the next land war with Russia over South Ossetia, and ...
earthquakes in Hollywood
and ....
volcanoes in Seattle
and the end of the banana crop due to some disease in central america...
You cant make this stuff up.
Posted on 2/10/10 at 12:25 pm to ottothewise
I made 50% on my portfolio since last March as I'm sure a lot of people did. transfered 100% over to government secure bonds gauranteed at 4% income 3 weeks ago. I figure if I don't make anything more than that this year then I'm still way ahead of average. Why get too greedy? safe to sit back and wait until unemployment drops because that's the only time we are going to see a somewhat stable market in the near future.
as it should be. Set a mark and when you reach it get out and put your money in US Treasury.
as it should be. Set a mark and when you reach it get out and put your money in US Treasury.
Posted on 2/10/10 at 12:45 pm to ottothewise
Past performance CAN and DOES predict present activity AT TIMES, as evidenced by some of the simplest of chart patterns. Ever heard of a triple bottom? What about a double top? Technical analysis, more than anything, is a study in group psychology.
If Stock A topped out at 10 dollars in December then retraced back to 7 dollars, then topped out again at 10 dollars in January before again retracing, and is now, in February, approaching 10 dollars again on the same or less volume as the prior two times it tested that level, then guess what? There is going to be a herd of people lined up to sell. It's really just common sense.
If Stock A topped out at 10 dollars in December then retraced back to 7 dollars, then topped out again at 10 dollars in January before again retracing, and is now, in February, approaching 10 dollars again on the same or less volume as the prior two times it tested that level, then guess what? There is going to be a herd of people lined up to sell. It's really just common sense.
This post was edited on 2/10/10 at 12:47 pm
Posted on 2/10/10 at 1:12 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
Technical analysis, more than anything, is a study in group psychology.
This is the best I've ever seen it explained, and in one sentence.
Posted on 2/10/10 at 1:49 pm to LSUgolf04
It's gonna bounce between 9800 and 11000 over the next 2 years.
Posted on 2/10/10 at 4:47 pm to LSUgolf04
Posted on 2/10/10 at 5:10 pm to AUFanInSoCal
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