re: Goldman: revision to nonfarm payrolls will be as large as 600k-1mn

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The fed fricked this by calling for a soft landing

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Have they missed the soft landing? When did the recession start?

I’m sorry I don’t look at everything economically through a political lens.

Can’t stand Biden, will be a 3 time Trump voter in November, but I don’t constantly complain about the economy or say it’s all fake so I’m hated around here in these discussions.

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Along with that, if we were to remove the GDP growth based on consumer debt creation, we would likely have been in a recession for a year or so now (which means we're pretty much kicking the recession can down the road, hoping jobs and wages pick back up before too many consumers hit their debt ceilings).

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But that’s not how any of this works. Consumer debt creation hasn’t retreated in any economic expansion in history.

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If the job revisions are correct, we've been in stagflation (or at least flirting with it) for about a year now. Stagflation is generally considered worse than inflation.

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Even with the overblown estimates job creation in the 12m ending 3/20204 was still 160k/month.

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But that’s not how any of this works. Consumer debt creation hasn’t retreated in any economic expansion in history.

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Even with the overblown estimates job creation in the 12m ending 3/20204 was still 160k/month.

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The point is we've been either in or dancing near the edge of stagflation or recession for around a year now. The data (especially the revisions) show we've been walking very close to the line of an economic downturn. For example, the 160k high-end estimate you mention, the "breakeven" point for jobs is generally considered to be 50k-110k per month. 160k would be anemic growth.

While it may not fit technical definitions, it should be close enough to be considered problematic. It should also be noted that this is the scenario we're in as we near entering what is almost positive to be a recession (per historical data on yield curves and rates being cut after a period of being held high).

That said, any downward revisions we get (especially ones so large and covering such a long period) just means we're actually worse off than we have been led to believe, as we enter an economic downturn (which means the downturn is very likely to be worse than JPow/Yellen/etc are "expecting").

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Negative if you’re talking about full time jobs. The country has been shedding full time jobs for a while now. The job “creation” has been in low paying, part time jobs mostly being filled by illegal aliens.

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We’re on the same page here.

Anecdotally I don’t really know of anyone who wants a full time job but cannot get one, but the household survey suggests full time jobs have been slowly eroding over the last 9-12 months.

ETA- interesting tidbit that was also shared by Goldman Sachs - QECW initial estimates (the -818,000 we got today) have been almost exclusively been revised upward by the time they’re finalized for the past few years. The only additional downward revisions were during initial Covid outbreak.

LINK

Is this like funny funny haha, or something else?

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Sounds like Slackster.

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It really chaps your arse that I bring facts to the debate and not just an X link.