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re: Facebook trading at $75 Billion now

Posted on 1/27/11 at 2:40 pm to
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8180 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

With a 50% profit margin
net margin isn't that high.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

net margin isn't that high.



Which makes the valuation seem even more overvalued.
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8180 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 2:54 pm to
Haircut it by ~30% and you're starting to get in the right range.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 3:44 pm to
I still think $53 is insane.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 3:50 pm to
I think he was saying haircut the profit margin figure I used just for exemplary purposes (50%) by 30%.

As to whether he means subtract an absolute 30% from 50% (i.e. 20% margins) or subtract 30% of 50% (i.e. 35% margins), he wasn't entirely clear.

ETA: Or maybe he was referring to price. Who knows? Clarify please Athanatos.
This post was edited on 1/27/11 at 3:52 pm
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 3:58 pm to
Either way it blew my mind how low their expenses were on an absolute dollar basis.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 4:03 pm to
Related: LinkedIn files statement with SEC for proposed IPO LINK ][LINK]
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8180 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 4:13 pm to
The haircut was in re. the net margin you mentioned. And to answer your question, I am impling 50%(70%).
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 1/27/11 at 4:22 pm to
Man LinkedIn is fricking waaaay smaller than I would have thought. LINK ][LINK]
Posted by Interception
Member since Nov 2008
11089 posts
Posted on 1/29/11 at 5:37 am to
The latest valuation has FB over 82 Billion passing Amazon...

LINK

This was an interesting article about the possible "bubble" in valuing these new social website business models. I was particularly interested in what could be perceived as the future competition to FB which could be social website models that protect your information and will even pay you
money to release your personal info to a 3rd party. This article really has me thinking about the most annoying thing to most of us and that's web stalking ads which is the life blood of FB. On the other hand FB could be plotting to make another customized website like the article describes. Who knows?
This post was edited on 1/30/11 at 3:06 am
Posted by kfaulk03
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2007
1494 posts
Posted on 1/29/11 at 2:58 pm to
I wouldn't touch it with a 50ft pole.

Goldman has advantages in what they are doing that have nothing to do with investing in Facebook's balance sheet, growth prospects, etc. Advertising, future fees from Facebook, providing a product to their clients, etc..

At some price Facebook would be a good investment, but who in the hell could be certain of that price?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133733 posts
Posted on 1/29/11 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

There's just a ridiculous amount of risk involved with buying this stock, IMO.
I agree.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 1/29/11 at 3:41 pm to
quote:

Goldman has advantages in what they are doing that have nothing to do with investing in Facebook's balance sheet, growth prospects, etc. Advertising, future fees from Facebook, providing a product to their clients, etc..


You're exactly right.

Goldman invested 450M into Facebook.

They are estimated to receive from anywhere between 500M - 1.5B (between 1% and 3% based off of the initial valuation of 50B) in fees through this private offering.

But, of course, this fee arrangement is based specifically off of FB's valuation. Thus, Goldman has an interest in valuing FB as high as possible, an interest which is less effected by the performance of FB's stock than it is the price at which they value the company.

Even if FB stock becomes worthless, Goldman can still potentially net over 1B from fees alone.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 2/3/11 at 10:32 am to
Only 14% of investors, traders, or analysts say FB's 50B valuation is either fair or undervalued. Everyone else thinks it's overvalued:

LINK
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 2/3/11 at 10:19 pm to
fizz, I know at least you find this interesting...
Posted by tigerpawl
Can't get there from here.
Member since Dec 2003
22628 posts
Posted on 2/4/11 at 8:53 am to
quote:

Facebook just seems like a fad to me.
It's an online safe-haven for the insecure that somehow is embraced as reality.

FYI, I went to the bathroom this morning at 7:03 and everything came out ok. Stuck in traffic on the Causeway. Uhg.
Posted by kfizzle85
Member since Dec 2005
22022 posts
Posted on 2/4/11 at 12:33 pm to
What the frick does that mean?
Posted by Things and stuff
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2010
3579 posts
Posted on 2/4/11 at 1:54 pm to
Facebook has reached a level of popularity where it is able to self-generate demand for itself. Some seem to think it is beyond a point of no return. They will need to continue to evolve and adapt to current trends and technology.. but it is certainly possible that facebook is still dominating in 10 years.

It is infusing itself in everyday American culture.
Posted by auditu
Member since Aug 2010
52 posts
Posted on 2/4/11 at 2:49 pm to
I agree; it's being valued the way it is because investors recognize that it's changing the face of advertising -- advertising that creates demand, further up the value chain that search engine generated ads. Facebook is changing the internet.

If i were you, I'd find cheaper alternatives, but certainly put money into social network companies with strong/solid management teams that trade at a fraction of Facebook's valuation.
Posted by RedStickBR
Member since Sep 2009
14577 posts
Posted on 2/14/11 at 2:59 pm to
Anyone interested in some of the regulatory issues re: the FB offering:

LINK
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