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re: $DXYZ - like $VCX with a larger float

Posted on 5/27/26 at 8:36 am to
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
103642 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 8:36 am to
This stock has turned to garbage
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 8:54 am to
quote:

This stock has turned to garbage


Why Would all the companies in the fund be doing well but the fund is losing value?
This post was edited on 5/27/26 at 9:59 am
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

wtf just happened this thing just bombed


Can anyone explain what’s going on here? Back to back 10% loss days while the market is running hot.

What am I not understanding? Profit taking?
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1870 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

wtf just happened this thing just bombed


Can anyone explain what’s going on here? Back to back 10% loss days while the market is running hot.

What am I not understanding? Profit taking?


It's stupidly overvalued
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1870 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 1:48 pm to
quote:

quote:
This stock has turned to garbage


Why Would all the companies in the fund be doing well but the fund is losing value?


Because the stock price is trading a huge premium to NAV.
Posted by Odinson
Asgard
Member since Apr 2014
2883 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 3:23 pm to
Dilution
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1870 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 4:12 pm to
quote:

$DXYZ - like $VCX with a larger float
Odinson
Dilution


It's a CEF they can't issue stock below NAV. Issuing stock is not dilutive, it's actually accretive.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
103642 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 6:28 pm to
I should have sold it all at 72

Maybe it’ll have one more run up near SpaceX IPO day
Posted by whodatigahbait
Uptown
Member since Oct 2007
1870 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

I should have sold it all at 72

Maybe it’ll have one more run up near SpaceX IPO day


It very well might, but this stock is meant to be traded. It's basically a meme stock that is trading completely uncoupled from the underlying fundamentals.

For example, SpaceX is ~16% of the book as of year end. Simple math says SpaceX needs to go up 6x in order to justify the current premium (the rest of the portfolio being equal).

Obviously that isn't happening any time soon.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33804 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 7:51 pm to
Below $50 I’m out til it cools down to NAV. Until it goes below $50 it still has a chance to cup and handle here. Would have liked to see it hold $56 though
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33804 posts
Posted on 5/28/26 at 3:05 pm to
I added more today. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t. But my cup and handle pattern is still in play. And I just found out the CEO has been posting on stocktwits under an official company account
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 6/8/26 at 10:00 pm to
This turd here. Anyone buying at this price?

This post was edited on 6/9/26 at 5:42 am
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33804 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 11:48 am to
Some people here unhappy after buying in on the wrong side of NAV. I’m adding here.

With SPCX IPO and Anthropic new valuation raise, my calculated NAV is now above share price ($34 NAV vs $31.50 share price). I’m adding big again here. The key to these funds is staying on the right side of NAV - buy below NAV, sell above NAV. Plus this one is a momentum play.

CEO has been posting recently on stocktwits - he has a ton of cash on hand now from selling way above NAV, and I think he’s planning something big for it - potentially adding more Anthropic in their new round
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 4:58 pm to
My dumb question of the day.

How do you determine the NAV?
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
50476 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 5:07 pm to
NAV is calculated once per day on ETFs. last reported for this was 19.97. whether upperdecker has a proprietary calculation is unknown
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 5:31 pm to
quote:

NAV is calculated once per day on ETFs. last reported for this was 19.97. whether upperdecker has a proprietary calculation is unknown


Great. I just put more in the boat at $28 and change.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
50476 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 5:47 pm to
if you buy DXYZ you are electing to pay a premium over NAV to have access to private equity that otherwise is unavailable to you as a retail investor. Whether that premium is worth it to you at 28 vs NAV of 20 is your call. It was trading in the 70’s a while back
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
32364 posts
Posted on 6/12/26 at 6:35 pm to
quote:

call. It was trading in the 70’s a while back


I know! That’s what keeps me coming back for more.

More punishment
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33804 posts
Posted on 6/13/26 at 4:50 am to
quote:

NAV is calculated once per day on ETFs. last reported for this was 19.97. whether upperdecker has a proprietary calculation is unknown

Not for these closed end ones. DXYZ reports book NAV quarterly. Last NAV update was ~$25 at end of March. That uses the most recent objective values of each company in the portfolio - based on most recent funding rounds

I’m recalculating NAV using projected next funding valuations for companies that are announcing some type of valuation or rumored to be getting funding at a specific value. For example, SpaceX was last valued at $1T for the book value NAV for DXYZ. But it just went to market at a $2.1T market cap. I’m updating NAV based on that. Same for Anthropic etc. The only thing I can’t account for is sale of shares ATM when share price is over NAV - but I assume they only sell over calculated NAV like I use. When selling ATM over NAV, they collect on the premium, but it dilutes the existing exposure, so the book NAV goes up but my calculated NAV goes down as it’s split between more shares. And I can’t account for it until they report updated share counts, so the whole thing is an estimate obviously. But it does give a solid range of value for the fund, and usually the selling won’t be as extreme so it shouldn’t impact my calculated NAV to the same level
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
33804 posts
Posted on 6/13/26 at 5:02 am to
quote:

How do you determine the NAV?

Net asset value - value of total assets, including cash, divided by total shares. So it’s a per share stat, so you can directly compare it to share price

Post above explains how I’m recalculating it based on current data rather than lagging quarterly data as reported by company
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