re: Dont let today's fools gold fool you.

I don't care when people make technical calls, because I don't know how to judge them. I care when people make fundamental calls because those are ones that I can analyze for bullshite, and because more often than not, its built on bullshite and easy to tear apart. He's not made any fundamental calls until now.

I did, I was quoting myself in response to TulaneLSU asking me if Baylor knows what he's talking about. I'm saying I don't know (or particularly care), because I don't know anything about technicals.

quote:

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1000 is a certain unless something crazy happens like a 2 to 4 trillion package from the Government.

QE 3 would not even help.

It would take the Government lifting the debt ceiling much higher then what was just approved and throwing trillions at the problem.

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This is a fundamental prediction, not a technical one.

there is a meeting in Europe Tues. Will the results of that meeting prevent the S&P from going over 1220?

This is interesting...
Global Recession Warning

Daiwa Capital Markets economist Kevin Lai says Hong Kong Recession Risk Is Global Warning

Of nine economists in a Bloomberg News survey, Lai came closest to predicting a 0.5 percent contraction in the city’s economy in the second quarter. Only two of the analysts expected gross domestic product to decline from the previous three months. The government released the data Aug. 12.

“Global demand is really weak and we expect the U.S. and Europe will see a sharp slowdown, or near-zero growth, next year,” Lai said in a phone interview in the city today. “A recession is a reality for Hong Kong.”

An 11 percent decline in Hong Kong’s merchandise exports in the second quarter from the previous three months highlights the weakness, Lai said. In a note, he described the economy as the world’s “most externally-driven” and said that a slump has “grave implications.”

The world economy is “entering a new danger zone” and international policy makers need to take steps to restore confidence, World Bank President Robert Zoellick said yesterday in Sydney. A U.S. debt-rating downgrade and a widening European debt crisis triggered a global rout of equities.
Some economists define a global recession as a slowdown in combined global growth under 2%. That is a near-given.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
LINK

we'd need basically another 1.2% roughly burst today. Possible, maybe not likely.

I think you might be the best short-term contrarian indicator on the board right now.

Looks like Baylor might be right again... Should have bought some SDS me.